$14.9 million for 4-weeks at Bigelow space station

[ragnorak]

<br />Well here it is, how much it will cost you to fly Bigelow!<br /><br />http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2007/04/10/213196/bigelow-aerospace-unveils-14.9-million-price-tag-for-four-weeks-at-orbital-complex-from.html<br />

 

[dreada5]

Seems like most news sites only have slightly different summaries of what he said.<br /><br />http://space.com/news/070410_nss_bigelow.html<br /><br />http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2007/04/space_symposium.html<br /><br />I was asking over on another Bigelow thread whether they'd be live webcast, no one seemed to know and BA don't seem to have up any kind of transcript as yet.

 

[radarredux]

Actually, $12 million for 4 weeks in today's dollars. That compares very well to the $20-25 million currently offered by Russia for ISS visits today.<br /><br />More interesting is the cost of $88 million for leasing a module for an entire year, or lease a half module for a month for a mere $4.5 million. I've seen hotel rooms (at least on TV) that cost more than that! That seems like a pretty cheap and quick way for a county to become a space faring nation.

 

[radarredux]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>This will cover pre-flight training and transportation there and back. Interested parties can place a fully refundable deposit of 10% of the cost of the trip now.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />I wonder how he can establish his price when the transportation system has yet to be established? Does he have agreements with other organizations (ULA, Russia, SpaceX) in place already?

 

[docm]

He's been working with ULA & SpaceX (Dragon) for months and recently signed paper with RpK. Now Benson (Dream Chaser) is in the mix with their Lockheed/ULA agreement.<br /><br />Anyone smell a keiretsu forming? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I wonder how he can establish his price when the transportation system has yet to be established? <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Maybe he is prepared to take a loss on this for a few years ? <br />Even when constantly losing $50 mil a month for three years, you have "only" burned a 2 billion, which i believe Bigelow would be capable of.<br />In three years, with frequent flight rate and stable demand, a LOT can happen with the supply side of the things.<br />

 

[dreada5]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Actually, $12 million for 4 weeks in today's dollars. That compares very well to the $20-25 million currently offered by Russia for ISS visits today. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />How does it?

 

[j05h]

<i>> Anyone smell a keiretsu forming?</i><br /><br />Is that Japanese for "last, best hope"?<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[docm]

"network of businesses ", but yes...that fits too. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[j05h]

Doc- I know about keiretsu, was joking. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> I'd like to point out that at the price and volume Bigelow is quoting, they will be able to drive costs through the floor and make serious money (eventually).<br /><br />j <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[nyarlathotep]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>How does it?<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />If you really can't figure it out, ask an average 6 year old to explain it for you.

 

[bitbanger]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I would think that any tourist would be thoroughly bored after about one week.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Bigelow has repeatedly stated that he isn't running a hotel in space. This would appear to be primarily targeted at microgravity R&D by corporations and countries.<br /><br />

 

[Swampcat]

<font color="yellow">"Bigelow has repeatedly stated that he isn't running a hotel in space. This would appear to be primarily targeted at microgravity R&D by corporations and countries."</font><br /><br />Note: This is more of a reply to anvel.<br /><br />This needs to be emphasized. The association with Bigelow Aerospace and space hotels is a media creation that Bigelow has assiduously rejected. His ownership of Budget Suites of America probably has something to do with it, but keep in mind that he is also involved in the construction business as well as real estate.<br /><br />I could be wrong, but from what I've seen, Mr. Bigelow is thinking more along the lines of creating real estate in space and brokering access and use...at least for the near future. Whether he gets to build his Lunar Cruise Ship will depend on the success, or lack thereof, in these early ventures. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font size="3" color="#ff9900"><p><font size="1" color="#993300"><strong><em>------------------------------------------------------------------- </em></strong></font></p><p><font size="1" color="#993300"><strong><em>"I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."</em></strong></font></p><p><font size="1" color="#993300"><strong>Thomas Jefferson</strong></font></p></font> </div>

 

[trailrider]

(snip) "could be wrong, but from what I've seen, Mr. Bigelow is thinking more along the lines of creating real estate in space and brokering access and use...at least for the near future. Whether he gets to build his Lunar Cruise Ship will depend on the success, or lack thereof, in these early ventures. "<br /><br />Hmmm! Twelve million seems reasonable, but I'm a little short right now. Tell him I'll have my people get with his people...later...<br /><br />BTW, I wonder what The Donald might have to say about such a project?<br /><br />Ad Luna! Ad Ares! Ad Astra!

 

[dreada5]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>If you really can't figure it out, ask an average 6 year old to explain it for you. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Ok, I've probably misread/misunderstood RadarRedux.<br /><br />But it seems that if Bigelow's offering, in fact, provides basically the same service as the Russians, then it is a far <b>better</b> deal than what the Russians/SA currently offer - so I woudn't say it "compares very well". IMO they aren't similar, one deal is much superior to the other! Compared to the Russians, Bigelow provides a stay that is roughly three times longer, at roughly half the cost. I'd say the differences are quite stark... unless its like 9.39pm and I'm still half asleep! lol<br /><br />But thanks anyway for the insult. Appreciate it.

 

[themanwithoutapast]

"Bigelow has repeatedly stated that he isn't running a hotel in space. This would appear to be primarily targeted at microgravity R&D by corporations and countries. "<br /><br />Interestingly <br /><br />(1) there have been exactly 3 "countries/governmental organization" to pay between 10 and 20 millions per seat to a space station (ISS) in this millenium - NASA, ESA and the Brazilian Space Agency. Both NASA and ESA have paid the Russians just to utilize the ISS in the way it was agreed before. That makes the Brazilian Space Agency the only governmental organization or country that was interested in an orbital flight at a rate of 20 million USD within 7 years (without a prior committment to a large project). Could someone explain again why this should change with Bigelow's space stations, that is why are countries/space agencies around the world now lining up to use Bigelow's space stations at only a slightly reduced price from what they have to pay now?<br /><br />(2) there has not been a single flight paid by a private corporations to do R&D in microgravity in 35 years of manned space stations - and there have been a lot of efforts to involve corporations in space flights - all failed like for instance the Russian Enterprise Module for the ISS or efforts to do commercially interesting work on the STS-SpaceHab missions. Could anybody explain why any corporation would be interested in Bigelow's services now?<br /><br />To sum up, the only other alternative revenue source still open is the tourist market (currently 1-2 interested customers per year...), but Bigelow doesn't even want to target that.<br /><br />I am still amazed Bigelow can make broad statements such as "there are 50-60 countries without launch capabilities out there that might use our services" and nobody is asking the simple question "Why now Mr. Bigelow, if the customer demand wasn't there throughout the last years, why now?"

 

[thereiwas]

If a scientist is being sent up to do experiments, then he will have equipment to take as well. Plus food and other supplies for the 4 weeks. I'll bet that hoisting your lab equipment to LEO, and bringing it back down, and storage space when not being used, is not included in the quoted price. <br /><br />Cheaper to leave the stuff in orbit until it is needed again than bring it back, or burn it up. Might even be able to <br />salvage parts. Anybody remember the junk yard in Heinlein's "The Rolling Stones"?

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">Could anybody explain why any corporation would be interested in Bigelow's services now?</font>/i><br /><br />I am also skeptical, but here is a stab at the answer. From an Aviation Week article:<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>-- Customer bias: We will have a customer payment of services plan that is "much more conservative in the client's favor than what is typical in the space business," Bigelow said.<br /><br />--Escrow accounts: "We will have a method escrowing monies that will keep those customer monies in a refundable state for a much longer period of time and represent only fractionally that amount of money that will need to be paid to reserve the use of a space facility," Bigelow says.<br /><br />--Innovative payment plans: One reason commercial space has been so slow to evolve is because it has required so much up front money from customers for such high risk ventures. Bigelow wants to reverse that.<br /><br />"We will have milestones that it will be incumbent upon Bigelow to successfully pass before money is transitioned from being refundable to non refundable he said. "A big part of the message we will be conveying at the Space Symposium is "Look! We are not going to charge you an arm and a leg for the services that we are providing," he said.<br /><br />"We think this will make the use of our orbital services very conductive for moderately funded organizations."<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />And then from the FlightGlobal article:<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Bigelow expects to offer four week stays in low Earth orbit for $11,950</p></blockquote></i>

 

[radarredux]

> <font color="yellow">If a scientist is being sent up to do experiments, then he will have equipment to take as well.</font>/i><br /><br />I <i>think</i> the typical model will be to have a company establish a multi-month research and manufacturing effort on a station that will largely be automated or teleoperated. A human will go up initially to set up equipment and start the effort going, then he will leave the station and let the research/manufacturing continue on its own. Every few months a human will visit that company's equipment rack to add supplies, retrieve samples, or otherwise do what cannot be done automatically or remotely.<br /><br />With several equipment racks for multiple organizations each needing tending every few months, that would come out to about one visit to the station per month.<br /><br />I think a similar model is the web-hosting business, where you can (1) rent space on a multi-user server, (2) rent your own server, (3) have your own server installed and maintained by the web-hosting business staff, (4) have your own server installed and maintained by you remotely, (5) rent a rack that is actually locked in a cage so the employees cannot get in without your approval.<br /><br />Obviously, this is all just guess work.

 

[spacy600]

In the corporate world<br />All I can add is the giggle factor is greatly reduced.<br /><br />and competition is a powerful force, if you see one, <br />you will see all the leaders in the industry. <br />

 

[thereiwas]

My impression was that 1 of the 3 Bigelow stations would be for the no-vibration teleoperated experiments. I was thinking of the more populated stations.

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I am still amazed Bigelow can make broad statements<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote> <br />Its sceptics job to be amazed and doubt everything. Its enterpreneurs job to see opportunities where nobody else sees them and turn the world into a new place.<br /><br />Bigelow has lots of smart people working for him, he is a very successful businessman himself, and he has a short successful track record in this industry. Best of all, he has deep enough wallets to carry this out, and even take a beating for a while.<br />Even if at the end he says "ok, i sunk a few billion in it, now im out of money and revenue streams aint positive yet" that should still leave the world with three more orbiting stations up there. That, in itself, would be an amazing accomplishment<br />If he manages to turn this into successful business as well, even more amazing.<br /><br />in other news, Bill Gates is reported to be interested in space now. looking for a trip to ISS... do you see where this is heading ? <br /><br />EDIT: what i was trying to say about Bigelow is, that the back-of-the envelope armchair economy-101 style analysis of his business plans is very likely quite wrong. although they tell you that in economy-101 class, the businesses of this scale dont quite work as simply as ( ticket price - price of launch = profit ). that is also hinted at in Bigelows talk about new funding options etc.

 

[josh_simonson]

If he's not targeting the tourist segment why did he say that every flight will come with a free EVA opportunity? EVA is more of a tourist thing unless there is work to be done outside.

 

[Swampcat]

<font color="yellow">"'Why now Mr. Bigelow, if the customer demand wasn't there throughout the last years, why now?'"</font><br /><br />The way I look at it is that it's Mr. Bigelow's money. If he wants to spend it on creating a service that hasn't been available at an affordable price (assuming he can do that) then I'm going to sit back and enjoy watching him try.<br /><br />I'll admit that his business case seems a bit of a stretch, but it also seems that a lot of other folks are stretching that business case along with him. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font size="3" color="#ff9900"><p><font size="1" color="#993300"><strong><em>------------------------------------------------------------------- </em></strong></font></p><p><font size="1" color="#993300"><strong><em>"I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."</em></strong></font></p><p><font size="1" color="#993300"><strong>Thomas Jefferson</strong></font></p></font> </div>

 

[no_way]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>EVA is more of a tourist thing unless there is work to be done outside.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />What makes you think that there is more zero-g research to be done inside than outside ? space-qualifying and testing various new materials ( insulations, solar cells, electronics ) comes to mind immediately<br />Look up external material experiments being done on ISS right now.