2008 SV11

[silylene old]

<p>I thought we needed a new thread, I wanted something other than 'electric universe' active on the SSA forum.&nbsp; So I decided to start an alternative subject to post updates on.</p><p>Anyways,&nbsp;SV11 might&nbsp;develop into&nbsp;an interesting asteroid to follow.&nbsp; It's big, newly discovered, and with (very minimal) 3 days of data, it has a suprising Palermo Scale = - 0.69&nbsp; (that is high!) on NEODyS.&nbsp; Also it has a very close approach on March 31, 2009.&nbsp;&nbsp;Unusually, its collision&nbsp;risk increased substantially with the latest data collected.</p><p>So far it has always been&nbsp;the case that the more data acquired gives a more accurate trajectory, and as&nbsp;the asteroid&nbsp;trajectory&nbsp;gets refined, we find the chance of collision will be reduced to near zero.&nbsp; It takes a couple months of data for a good trajectory, unless we are lucky to find something in old photos.&nbsp; So don't worry!</p><p>This asteroid may be fun to follow.&nbsp; Hopefully we can get a new update in a couple of&nbsp; days.</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[3488]

<p><font size="2"><strong>Cheers Silylene,</strong></font></p><p><font size="2"><strong>Just found this.</strong></font></p><p><font size="5">2008 SV11 .</font></p><p><font size="2"><strong>Diameter of asteroid thought to be 729 metres. Wonder what type it is?&nbsp;</strong></font></p><p><font size="2"><strong>Andrew Brown.&nbsp;</strong></font></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I thought we needed a new thread, I wanted something other than 'electric universe' active on the SSA forum.&nbsp; So I decided to start an alternative subject to post updates on.Anyways,&nbsp;SV11 might&nbsp;develop into&nbsp;an interesting asteroid to follow.&nbsp; It's big, newly discovered, and with (very minimal) 3 days of data, it has a suprising Palermo Scale = - 0.69&nbsp; (that is high!) on NEODyS.&nbsp; Also it has a very close approach on March 31, 2009.&nbsp;&nbsp;Unusually, its collision&nbsp;risk increased substantially with the latest data collected.So far it has always been&nbsp;the case that the more data acquired gives a more accurate trajectory, and as&nbsp;the asteroid&nbsp;trajectory&nbsp;gets refined, we find the chance of collision will be reduced to near zero.&nbsp; It takes a couple months of data for a good trajectory, unless we are lucky to find something in old photos.&nbsp; So don't worry!This asteroid may be fun to follow.&nbsp; Hopefully we can get a new update in a couple of&nbsp; days.&nbsp; <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br />As you would expect, with even a few more observations, the Palermo scale rating has gone way down. Checking 3 minutes ago, it's now -2.71 with the earliest impact in 2014. That's less than the risk from Apophis, which is less that the risk from 2007 VK 184.</p><p>I never even worry about anything for at least a day. The entire observational arc is still less than a full day.</p><p>The current risk is now 1/1000 of the risk from the background unknown objects. </p><p>Still a fun thread, it's about time for me to discuss the long term risks again anyway </p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>As you would expect, with even a few more observations, the Palermo scale rating has gone way down. Checking 3 minutes ago, it's now -2.71 with the earliest impact in 2014. That's less than the risk from Apophis, which is less that the risk from 2007 VK 184.I never even worry about anything for at least a day. The entire observational arc is still less than a full day.The current risk is now 1/1000 of the risk from the background unknown objects. Still a fun thread, it's about time for me to discuss the long term risks again anyway &nbsp;&nbsp; <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>[MW:&nbsp; I think your information source doesn't update as frequently.&nbsp; The -2.71 you reported I believe was the only&nbsp;1 days arc data from JPL and NEODyS.&nbsp; At that time&nbsp;neither source&nbsp;had not yet added day 3 observations, which NEODyS had added, and got the -0.69 for the 3 days arc.]</p><p>Anyways, NEODyS now has the Palermo Scale up to -1.07, and JPL Sentry has it at -1.13, both based on 4 days arc data.</p><p>This will be a fun asteroid to watch.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>[MW:&nbsp; I think your information source doesn't update as frequently.&nbsp; The -2.71 you reported I believe was the only&nbsp;1 days arc data from JPL and NEODyS.&nbsp; At that time&nbsp;neither source&nbsp;had not yet added day 3 observations, which NEODyS had added, and got the -0.69 for the 3 days arc.]Anyways, NEODyS now has the Palermo Scale up to -1.07, and JPL Sentry has it at -1.13, both based on 4 days arc data.This will be a fun asteroid to watch. <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br />Good point silylene. Usually I check Sentry first bacause it's at the top of my "NEO" pile, but NeoDys often updates faster. I just like the Sentry presentation better That's rather substantial risk for a 4 day arc, especially since the highest risk date is the first one on April Fools day next year. Cosmic Irony </p><p>It should be interesting to watch indeed. It should be well placed for observation most of the time. I think one reason the errors are so large (quality code 8) is that if you look at the orbit diagram, ( http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2008sv11.html&nbsp it's heading almost straight toward the earth right now, so the inevitible position errors don't constrain the orbital speed very much yet.</p><p>Looks like something to add to the daily to-do list!</p><p>Thanx</p><p>Wayne</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Good point silylene. Usually I check Sentry first bacause it's at the top of my "NEO" pile, but NeoDys often updates faster. I just like the Sentry presentation better That's rather substantial risk for a 4 day arc, especially since the highest risk date is the first one on April Fools day next year. Cosmic Irony It should be interesting to watch indeed. It should be well placed for observation most of the time. I think one reason the errors are so large (quality code 8) is that if you look at the orbit diagram, ( http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2008sv11.html) it's heading almost straight toward the earth right now, so the inevitible position errors don't constrain the orbital speed very much yet.Looks like something to add to the daily to-do list!ThanxWayne <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />Looking at this object more closely, a few comments. It's interesting that it has never been seen before considering how large an object it is.</p><p>It will be more or less coming out of the sun in April, but we have plenty of time to refine the orbit.</p><p>It's currently about mag +20, in Aquarius in morning twilight, but by mid October will be better placed for observations.</p><p>Another two possible sources of uncertainty; it has&nbsp; a very close approach to Venus about a month before it's April close approach to earth (assuming the current orbit is close to being correct). Also, for such a large object never noticed before, it is possible that it was only recently captured into this orbit by interactions with Jupiter (it's aphelion is outside Jupiter's orbit) It could even turn out to be&nbsp;a comet, if this is an early trip into this orbit. It doesn't even cross Mars' orbit until the end of November.</p><p>Edited for way too many typos</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Looking at this object more closely, a few comments. It's interesting that it has never been seen before considering how large an object it is.It will be more or less coming out of the sun in April, but we have plenty of time to refince the orbit.It's currently about mag +20, in Aquarious in morning twilight, but by mid October will be better placed for observations.Another two possible sources of uncertainty; it has&nbsp; a very close approach to Venus about a month before it's April close approach to earth (assuming the current orbit is close to being correct). Also, for such a large object never noticed before, it is possible that it was only recently captured into this orbit by interactions with Jupiter (it's aphelion is outside Jupiter's orbit) It could even turn out to be&nbsp;a comet, if this is an early trip into this orbit. It doesn't even cross Mars' orbit until the end of November. <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV></p><p>JPL just added more observations, increasing the observation arc to 5 days.&nbsp; The PS was downgraded to -3.0, and now the closest approach is April 2.</p><p>The orbit is quite interesting, as you explained!&nbsp;&nbsp;2008 SV11&nbsp;passes closes enough to be significantly interacting with Jupiter, Venus and Earth.&nbsp;&nbsp; When the arc is much better described, it will be a fun exercise running the trajectory backwards to see how it came to be here.</p><p><br /><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/5/10/a588be12-911f-4dac-8a54-966f94967b1d.Medium.jpg" alt="" /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>JPL just added more observations, increasing the observation arc to 5 days.&nbsp; The PS was downgraded to -3.0, and now the closest approach is April 2.The orbit is quite interesting, as you explained!&nbsp;&nbsp;2008 SV11&nbsp;passes closes enough to be significantly interacting with Jupiter, Venus and Earth.&nbsp;&nbsp; When the arc is much better described, it will be a fun exercise running the trajectory backwards to see how it came to be here. <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br />Jeez, I'm so far behind. I last checked it over 20 minutes ago!! <img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-embarassed.gif" border="0" alt="Embarassed" title="Embarassed" /></p><p>LOL, this time Sentry beat NeoDys.</p><p>BTW, I think it still shows the first impact on April 1, 2009, but the odds for that one have gone WAAAAY down.</p><p>Maybe you're way behind, having checked 8 minutes ago!!! Ahhh, I see, you are talking about the most likely, which is April 2, 2026.</p><p>Especially for an object with so many close planetary approaches, the orbit viewer will be of little value, since as it states it's only an approximation. We'll need to do tedious searches using Horizons.</p><p>The other node (crossing of the solar system plane, when impacts can occur) is very close to Mars' orbit as well, although for the forseeable future Mars will be on the other side of the solar system.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Jeez, I'm so far behind. I last checked it over 20 minutes ago!! LOL, this time Sentry beat NeoDys.BTW, I think it still shows the first impact on April 1, 2009, but the odds for that one have gone WAAAAY down.Maybe you're way behind, having checked 8 minutes ago!!!Especially for an object with so many close planetary approaches.... <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />Bah, my mistake, I misread the table, the closest approach according to JPL is now on April 2, 2029&nbsp;.</p><p>That date is interesting because&nbsp;only 11 days later, On April 13, 2029, 2004 MN4 Apophis will make its extremely close earth approach and hopefully miss the 'keyhole'.&nbsp; April, 2029 will be exciting.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Bah, my mistake, I misread the table, the closest approach according to JPL is now on April 2, 2029&nbsp;.That date is interesting because&nbsp;only 11 days later, On April 13, 2029, 2004 MN4 Apophis will make its extremely close earth approach and hopefully miss the 'keyhole'.&nbsp; April, 2029 will be exciting. <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br />Misread twice It's 2026 for 2008 SV11, as of 18 seconds ago.... the .29 is time of day (UT) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Misread twice It's 2026 for 2008 SV11, as of 18 seconds ago.... the .29 is time of day (UT) <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />NeoDys has been updated and drops all impacts before 2034 with the same set of 44 obs... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>NeoDys has been updated and drops all impacts before 2034 with the same set of 44 obs... <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />5 day arc now, Sentry has no significant change, NeoDys has added back the 2009 impact at very low probability. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>5 day arc now, Sentry has no significant change, NeoDys has added back the 2009 impact at very low probability. <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />Yep, the good news is not unexpected. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Yep, the good news is not unexpected. <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br />Glad you brought it up. It's been fun to follow the process of ingesting new observations again <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[robnissen]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I thought we needed a new thread, I wanted something other than 'electric universe' active on the SSA forum.&nbsp;&nbsp; <br />Posted by silylene</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;<font size="3">Thank you.&nbsp; I've pretty much stopped coming here, I am just not interested in the "electric universe."&nbsp; I had some interest in 2004, less in 2005, 2006, 2007 and now no interest in 2008.&nbsp; Its nice to see a different active thread here.</font><br /></p>

 

[porkchopsnapplesauce]

<p>&nbsp;</p><p>This is not really related, but on the JPL neo site it mentions the following </p><p>"On a daily basis, about one hundred tons of interplanetary material drifts down to the Earth's surface."&nbsp; </p><p>Does anyone know how they calculate that number?&nbsp; Perhaps is just sounds larger then it actually is.&nbsp; <br /></p>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>&nbsp;This is not really related, but on the JPL neo site it mentions the following "On a daily basis, about one hundred tons of interplanetary material drifts down to the Earth's surface."&nbsp; Does anyone know how they calculate that number?&nbsp; Perhaps is just sounds larger then it actually is.&nbsp; <br />Posted by porkchopsnapplesauce</DIV><br /><br />It's based on measurements from high flying aircraft that sample the incoming flux, ground based measurements of meteoritic materials (yes some of the dust on your roof comes from interplanetary dust), visible meteors and fireballs, etc.</p><p>It's probably correct within 50%</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>