2010 CL19

[cyclonebuster]

Here is one to watch and it is big! OUCH!


2010 CL19 NEODyS 1422 Feb. 25 2016-2083 36 1.15e-06 -2.10 -2.44 0 Based on 33 optical observations (of which 1 are rejected as outliers) from 2010/02/13.096 to 2010/02/17.108.
JPL Sentry 2201 Feb. 24 2019-2108 40 1.4e-06 -2.01 -2.39 0 Analysis based on 32 observations spanning 4.0113 days (2010-Feb-13.09558 to 2010-Feb-17.10688). Diameter approximately 0.967 km. from mean, weighted H=17.7.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2010cl19.html

 

[MeteorWayne]

Thanx, looks like risk is increasing..

 

[cyclonebuster]

Increasing risk scares me with such large asteroids. How often will they do new calculations with this one?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Any time new observations are made. They help refine the orbit.

 

[MeteorWayne]

From JPL Sentry:

# obs. used (total) 32
data-arc span 4 days
first obs. used 2010-02-13
last obs. used 2010-02-17
planetary ephem. DE405
SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2
quality code 9
fit RMS .39219
data source ORB
producer Otto Matic
solution date 2010-Feb-24 12:17:46

H=17.341

Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e .7261326499556187..... 0.092026
a= 2.266947985023275 .....1.0195 AU
q= .620843037346774....... 0.070659 AU
i= 7.29064696739886........ 0.053035 deg
node= 241.7088872879862.. 2.1089 deg
peri= 88.32288458880333... 10.686 deg
M= 19.03678201946497... 13.574 deg
tp= 2455176.574748355469
(2009-Dec-11.07474836) 2.5346 JED
period= 1246.696556580007----841.03 d,
period =3.41 +/- 2.303 Year (Take note of how poorly the orbit is known)
n .288763130129731 0.1948 deg/d
Q 3.913052932699775 1.7598 AU


Orbit from NEODyS:

Value 1-σ variation Units
a =2.17262 ...2.457 AU
e= 0.717389 ....0.2339
i= 7.295 ....0.1261 deg
Ω= 241.914 ....5.594 deg
ω= 87.284 ....28.4 deg
M= 7.438 ....14.62 deg

Absolute Magnitude (H) 17.4 mag
Slope parameter (G) 0.15 mag
Perihelion= 0.614 AU
Aphelion= 3.7312 AU
Asc. node-Earth separation= 0.00817 AU
Desc. node-Earth separation= 0.10491 AU
Earth MOID =0.00145 AU
Orbital period= 1169.7 days
Date of orbit computation Feb 25 02:10

 

[MeteorWayne]

BTW, current Sentry Cumulative PS, -2.01, highest risk -2.39 Dec 2, 2027
NEODyS has PS for that event at -2.44

(I know that's in an earlier post, I just wanted to make it easier to read)

In it's current position, there should be plenty of time for new observations before the sun gets in the way, so the orbit should become much more clear over the next week or two.

Some other odds and ends. 2010 CL19 is the largest object (based on H= 17.4) on the NEDODyS risk list. The second largest is 2008 HL (NEODyS H=17.6, JPL SBDB gives H as 17.8), which has a PS of -6.06, and is not on the Sentry Risk list.

It is the second largest object on the Sentry risk page, with 2004 BX159 at -17.2 and a PS of -4.27...which is not listed on the NEODys risk page.

Also, the JPL system gives 2 different values for the H of 2010 CL19.... 17.7 on the risk page, and 17.341 on the small body data base page for the object.

MW

 

[cyclonebuster]

I would hate to see what a large body is? This looks plenty big for me!

 

[MeteorWayne]

With new observations, 2010 CL19 was removed from the JPL Sentry and NEODyS risk pages this morning.

 

[silylene]

Not all that surprising it's gone, the previous arc had been less than a week.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Revised orbit from JPL:

Orbit Determination Parameters # obs. used (total) 35
data-arc span 20 days
first obs. used 2010-02-13
last obs. used 2010-03-05
planetary ephem. DE405
SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2
quality code 9
fit RMS .40564
data source ORB
producer Otto Matic
solution date 2010-Mar-05 01:50:15


Additional Information Earth MOID = .0113981 AU
T_jup = 4.254



Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units
e= .6425324830040526....... 0.0098241
a= 1.515312425475958 .......0.083617 AU
q =.5416749702079972 .......0.015007 AU
i =7.321204463255445 ........0.0080945 deg
node= 244.1926484417963.. 0.44765 deg
peri =75.76634816163225 ...2.3459 deg
M =36.63571870375655 ...3.1744 deg
tp =2455174.164776708783
(2009-Dec-08.66477671) 0.26881 JED
period = 681.3208875926517.....56.394 days
period =1.87 ......0.1544 yr
n =.5283853857350648 0.043736 deg/d
Q= 2.488949880743919 0.13734 AU

H 17.478 mag