Asteroid 2004 VD17 is upgraded to Torino Scale 2

[silylene old]

I was playing with an orbit calculator.<br /><br />If we wanted to send a probe to investigate VD-17, or send a pusher rocket or a nuke to it, I think there are a couple of opportunities coming up: one in Dec 2015, and better one on October 2017 when the asteroid makes reasonably close pass within less than 5 M miles of Earth.<br /><br />I think if we launched a craft in the spring of 2017, it could arrive at VD-17 for the close pass October 22 2017. In the picture, I show our VD-17 and Earth approaching each other on Sept 28 2017. Our hypothetical VD-17 spacecraft is stealthily approaching (not shown).<br /><br />If we launched to investigate, what surprises should our VD-17 probe bring?<br /><br />I suggest it would be a very good idea to land a laser reflector on the asteroid, and possibly also a radio emitter. This information would give us a much more accurate method of determing the exact location of VD-17 and allow us to refine the asteroid's orbit better.<br /><br />I also suggest that another part of the VD-17 craft should make a very close photographic pass next to VD-17, in order to get an accurate measure of its mass and shape and possible landing sites for a future mission (if needed). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[mlorrey]

You know, landing a laser/radar reflector or transponder on the surface is something that a nanoprobe could accomplish. This is also a mission that lends itself to duplication: producing hundreds of such probes in a production line to minimize cost, launching all of them on the same booster in a trajectory to LL1, from where they can all grab their own trajectories to target Earth Crossing Asteroids of interest on the Interplanetary Superhighway. Each would be powered by laser diode pumped pulse plasma drives (very tiny) and monolithic chip thrusters (i.e. silicon chips with tiny thruster cavities on them, each individually fired by electrical signals) for course adjustments. There would be no need to hurry things up, this is a mission for which there is plenty of time.

 

[silylene old]

The ESA is planning a very interesting mission to an asteroid in 2011. Also mentions the dangers from asteroids VD17 and 2004MN4.<br /><br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><b>Don Quijote Will Reach Out and Impact an Asteroid</b><br />Mon, 03 Apr 2006 - Asteroids don't hit the Earth often, but when they do, the results can be catastrophic. The European Space Agency is working on several approaches to minimize the chances we'll make a close encounter with an asteroid. A new mission, called Don Quijote, will launch in 2011 and slam an impactor probe into an asteroid to see what happens. An orbiter spacecraft will remain in orbit around the asteroid and continue to study the aftereffects of the impact. There are now three European teams working on preliminary studies for the potential mission. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />read the rest of the story here: http://www.universetoday.com/am/publish/past_treasure_threat.html?342006 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[astroguard]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><b>silylene</b> wrote last month:<br /><i>The chance of collision is currently estimated to be 1 in 1,790</i><p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>Since then, it's been updated to about one in 1200.

 

[robnissen]

Very interesting. Is this the first troublesome asteroid whose odds of hitting the earth have INCREASED with further study?

 

[silylene old]

No.<br /><br />Asteroid 2004MN4's odds have also been steadily increasing since last year.<br /><br />The most dangerous odds are on March 16, 2880 (yes, 874 years from now) Asteroid 1950 DA has a 1 in 300 chance of hitting the Earth. The trajectory of 1950 DA is quite well known (over 50 years of its orbit has been measured from photographs). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[mkofron]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>The most dangerous odds are on March 16, 2880 (yes, 874 years from now) Asteroid 1950 DA has a 1 in 300 chance of hitting the Earth. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Barring a collapse of civilization, I'd say the odds of technology being available to readily handle any threat that asteroid poses in the 29th century is likely.<br /><br />

 

[silylene old]

Interesting article on 2004 MN4 Apophis, the third most dangerous asteroid being tracked.<br /><br /><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><br /><b>Asteroid risk to Earth lowered, scientists say</b><br /><br /><br />• Space News <br />• Learn more about RSS <br />By Alan Boyle<br />Science editor<br />MSNBC<br />Updated: 7:28 p.m. ET May 18, 2006<br /> <br /> <br />Alan Boyle<br />Science editor<br /> <br />After a fresh round of radar observations, astronomers said Thursday that the chances of a catastrophic asteroid impact in the year 2036 are lower than previously thought — and they're hoping the threat will be completely ruled out once more readings are made.<br /><br />The chances of collision with the asteroid Apophis in 2036 now stand at 1 in 24,000, said Steve Chesley, an expert on near-Earth objects at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. That's a significant advance from the previous orbital predictions, which set the odds of impact at 1 out of about 6,000.<br /><br />Chesley told MSNBC.com that there's still a slim chance of catastrophe, due to the remaining uncertainties about Apophis' orbital path, but "things are moving in the right direction."<br /><br />Apophis, also known as 2004 MN4, was detected in 2004 and has been a source of concern since late that year. Astronomers estimate its diameter at about 1,300 feet (400 meters) — which means a collision would spark a regional catastrophe, though not a global extinction event on the scale of the dinosaurs' demise.<br /><br />A strike in the Pacific Ocean would set off a "cosmic Katrina" capable of doing an estimated $400 billion worth of damage, according to the B612 Foundation. For that reason, astronomers are keen to reduce the projected risk to zero if they can — and devise a mission to divert the space rock if they can't.<br /><br />Apophis is a special case because it spends most of its time within Earth's orbit, making observations difficult. The May 6-7 window for radar observations represented the best</p></blockquote> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[brandbll]

Did the impactor prode that Deep Impact used have any effect on the trajectory of the asteroid it hit? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="3">You wanna talk some jive? I'll talk some jive. I'll talk some jive like you've never heard!</font></p> </div>