3 new rocks on risk page 2008 BD15, BO16,BT18

[MeteorWayne]

2008 BD 15<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -4.04 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -3.80 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 6.7e-07 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 44 <br /><br />Analysis based on<br />18 observations spanning 1.8812 days<br />(2008-Jan-30.31301 to 2008-Feb-01.1942<br /><br />Vimpact 20.65 km/s <br />Vinfinity 17.39 km/s <br />H 20.9 <br />Diameter 0.220 km <br />Mass 1.5e+10 kg <br />Energy 7.7e+02 MT <br />all above are mean values<br />weighted by impact probability <br /><br /><br />2008 BO16<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -5.65 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -4.87 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 4.9e-07 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 69 <br /><br />Analysis based on<br />11 observations spanning .92247 days<br /><br />Vimpact 27.96 km/s <br />Vinfinity 25.64 km/s <br />H 22.7 <br />Diameter 0.098 km <br />Mass 1.3e+09 kg <br />Energy 1.2e+02 MT <br />all above are mean values<br />weighted by impact probability <br /><br />(2008-Jan-30.38083 to 2008-Jan-31.3033<br /><br />Edit:<br />Interesting aspect to 2008 BO16, unlike most asteroids with impact possibilities, this orbit comes close to the earth at each node, so they are twice a year in January and July.<br />The first is Jan 27 2021, and they continue through 2107 (as far as JPL goes out, I think)<br /><br />Both of these objects have very short observational arcs, so new obs will rapidly define the orbit with more accuracy<br /><br /><br /> Title edited <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[alokmohan]

Improved techniqes more asteroids.Make sure to buy one.

 

[MeteorWayne]

First, a third one added, and it's a biggie!<br />2008 BT18<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />14 observations spanning 1.5061 days<br />(2008-Jan-31.41308 to 2008-Feb-01.91922<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.82 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.56 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 5.4e-07 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 203 <br /><br />Vimpact 15.80 km/s <br />Vinfinity 11.19 km/s <br />H 18.2 <br />Diameter <font color="yellow"> 0.779 km </font><br />Mass 6.4e+11 kg <br />Energy 1.9e+04 MT <br /><br />First potential impact July 11, 2011<br />Also continuing through July 5, 2107 (Date edited for typo)<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Update to 2008 BD 15.<br /><br />Now down to a single possible impact Aug 3 2042<br /><br /><br />Analysis based on<br />47 observations spanning 2.9232 days<br />(2008-Jan-30.31301 to 2008-Feb-02.23619)<br /><br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -5.53 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -5.53 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.5e-08 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 1 <br /><br />And BO16:<br /><br />Now down to 6 possible impacts in Jan or July from<br />Jon 30, 2045 to July 11 2079<br /><br />17 observations spanning 2.6645 days<br />(2008-Jan-30.38083 to 2008-Feb-02.04538)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -4.26 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -4.24 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.9e-06 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 6 <br /><br />MW<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[3488]

Hi MeteorWayne,<br /><br />Is this sharp rise in detection due to improved equipment / observations, or <br />is there a genuine rise inthe number of these small asteroids passing Earth?<br /><br />2008 BT18 @ 779 metres across is larger than 25143 Itokawa, so yes that would <br />cause a lot of damage if it were to impact. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

I will investigate, but I suspect many of these are the fruition of the dedicated observing campaigns.<br />All the 2008 ones that start with "B" were discovered during the last 2 weeks of January, the "A"'s during the first two weeks.<br /><br />Unfortunately I cannot subscribe to the notices from theMinor Planet Center,($$$) so have to do some digging to find out more.<br /><br />What I found was of the 5 objects currently on my hot list, 2 were discoverd by the LINEOS survey, 2 by the Catalina survey, and 1 by the Mt Lemmon group.<br /><br />The reason we are hearing so much about them, is that I have been intensively monitoring the risk lists as part of our learning process, so as each new object pops up, we are hearing about it, even when based on 1 or 2 days of observations. In a week, most will disappear as the orbit is improved and the risk becomes zero.<br /><br />If we only checked every few weeks, almost none (except 2008 AF4) would even been heard about.<br /><br />The purpose of my intense monitoring is to demonstrate how many we really discover, and how quickly they are eliminated from any risk.<br />I guess it's working! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />For example one of the objects on the risk page is 2004 FU162.<br /><br />That means it was the <font color="orange">3884th object !! </font>discovered during the last 2 weeks of March in 2004. (By the LINEOS survey, BTW)<br /><br />One of the objects near the top of the list, 2007 VK 184 is the <font color="orange"> 4402nd !!</font>object discovered during the first two weeks of November. (Catalina Survey)<br /><br />So we detect an awful lot, we just don't hear about them <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />Wayne<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Just a little background info on the Palermo Scale.<br /><br /><br /><br />THE PALERMO TECHNICAL IMPACT HAZARD SCALE <br /><br /><br />The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale was developed to enable NEO specialists to categorize and prioritize potential impact risks spanning a wide range of impact dates, energies and probabilities. Actual scale values less than -2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between -2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring. Potential impacts with positive Palermo Scale values will generally indicate situations that merit some level of concern. <br /><br />The scale compares the likelihood of the detected potential impact with the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. This average risk from random impacts is known as the background risk. For convenience the scale is logarithmic, so, for examples, a Palermo Scale value of -2 indicates that the detected potential impact event is only 1% as likely as a random background event occurring in the intervening years, a value of zero indicates that the single event is just as threatening as the background hazard, and a value of +2 indicates an event that is 100 times more likely than a background impact by an object at least as large before the date of the potential impact in question. <br /><br />The primary reference for the Palermo Technical Scale is a scientific paper entitled "Quantifying the risk posed by potential Earth impacts" by Chesley et al. (Icarus 159, 423-432 (2002)). <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />From:<br />http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/palermo.html <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 BT18 is taking a normal path, down to 96 potential impacts, with a much lower rsik overall<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />17 observations spanning 2.4286 days<br />(2008-Jan-31.41308 to 2008-Feb-02.84171)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -3.82 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -3.33 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.9e-07 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 96 <br /><br />2011 thru 2106<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Removed from risk page:<br />2008 BD15 2008-02-04 11:31 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Wow that was wierd.<br /><br />Anyhow, 2008 BT18 is interesting,<br /><br />It's big (.75km) and we have a few more months to observe it.<br /><br />Rght now it is an impact risk at 1/1000 of the background rate.<br />Only a 3 day arc, so it's at best a guess at this point.<br /><br />At the time of closest approach (~ July 10) it will be invisible on the sun side of our orbit. So we must pin down the orbit before the end of MAy.<br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 32 <br /> data-arc span 3 days <br /> first obs. used 2008-01-31 <br /> last obs. used 2008-02-03 <br /> planetary ephem. DE405 <br /> SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 <br /> quality code 9 <br /> fit RMS .54178 <br /> data source ORB <br /> producer Otto Matic <br /> solution date 2008-Feb-04 00:50:09 <br /> <br /><br />Additional Information Earth MOID = .0188867 AU <br /> T_jup = 3.300 <br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -4.59 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -3.75 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.0e-07 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 27 <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Removed from risk page:<br /><br />2008 BT18 2008-02-06 10:56 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>