asteroid 2009 KK: Risk in May,Jun 2009

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

What are the odds of a lunar impact by 2009KK?

At this stage, about 7.4% of the chance it would hit the earth.

(Assuming the earth and moon are approximately equally within the error bar of the object's trajectory - which is correct, since the most likely close approach path is about 50+ lunar distances away - and given the relative radii of the earth and moon, the cross-section of the moon is about 7.4% of the earth.)

That's correct silylene, with such a large distance at nominal close approach, the odds would be essentially the same with the only difference being the size, hence the moon's smaller odds.

For the reading challenged, the current earth impact odds are 1 in 127,000; the moon's is 7.4% of that or 1 in 1,700,000.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

"The current earth impact odds are 1 in 127,000; the moon's is 7.4% of that or 1 in 1,700,000." Great answer I applaud you.This is all you had to say and as a moderator of a forum you should know better than to say "For the reading challenged". That part should have been left out. You are here to set an example of how you want others to act on this forum. Making comments such as the ones you make quite frequently are not examples of good moderation. Can you keep your rude comments to yourself and just answer the questions when asked? It is that simple.

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Cyclone, you were 'reading challenged' at least twice in responses to my posts, see below:
(#1 When I said "At this stage, about 7.4% of the chance it would hit the earth.", you responded "How can it have a 7.4% chance of hitting Earth...")
(#2 When I said "Whatever the chance it has to hit the earth, the chance to hit the moon would be 7.4% of that chance. In other words, if the chance of hitting the earth was 0.0001, then the chance of hitting the moon would be 0.07 * 0.0001", you responded "I get the moon part now 7.4% of the Earths 7.4% impact chance. Thanks silylene.")

Since you could not follow my grammar or math, I assumed you were either reading challenged, or mathematically challenged, or intentionally being disruptive.

I am guessing MW had the same experience, since you did not read his posts clearly either.

So if you are wondering why you evoke the responses from MW or myself, I would say this is the result of your repeated failure to read and follow the language of very clear writing which lead to frustration.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Well, I'll grant you the rude comment could have been skipped. However, being human, I get a little frustrated when a question gets answered numerous times and the answer is not read.

I'll try and do better, if you try and read the answers better, OK?

That should work out for everyone

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Cyclone, you were 'reading challenged' at least twice in responses to my posts, see below:
(#1 When I said "At this stage, about 7.4% of the chance it would hit the earth.", you responded "How can it have a 7.4% chance of hitting Earth...")
(#2 When I said "Whatever the chance it has to hit the earth, the chance to hit the moon would be 7.4% of that chance. In other words, if the chance of hitting the earth was 0.0001, then the chance of hitting the moon would be 0.07 * 0.0001", you responded "I get the moon part now 7.4% of the Earths 7.4% impact chance. Thanks silylene.")

Since you could not follow my grammar or math, I assumed you were either reading challenged, or mathematically challenged, or intentionally being disruptive.

I am guessing MW had the same experience, since you did not read his posts clearly either.

So if you are wondering why you evoke the responses from MW or myself, I would say this is the result of your repeated failure to read and follow the language of very clear writing which lead to frustration.

No excuse! We all get fustrated from time to time. We need to curb our instinct to lash out at each other here. We all come here to learn more because it is interesting lets just keep it at that. I misread "of the" thats all. I get it now.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Mod Hat On ****

OK, enough of this side conversation please. Let's stick to the subject of the thread, which is 2009 KK.
Feel free to PM me if you want to continue the discussion.
Thanx

Wayne
Mod Hat Off***

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Mod Hat On ****

OK, enough of this side conversation please. Let's stick to the subject of the thread, which is 2009 KK.
Feel free to PM me if you want to continue the discussion.
Thanx

Wayne
Mod Hat Off***

Ok how much energy would it take to capture 2009kk in a lunar or Earth orbit or even a geo orbit for a space elevator? Could we use it as an outpost for space missions?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Well, no hard and fast answers, but quite a bit because:

It doesn't come very close to earth (as I posted earlier, at least 80 objects will come closer to earth in the next 5 months than 2009 KK will). At this point the closest approach to earth is this year, and even that is at a distance of about 78 times the distance to the moon. That's quite far away. Right now we just have the ability to launch tiny spacecraft to the moon.

The speed relative to earth is high: 15.6 km/sec. It would require billions of times the propellant to be carried along to even attempt such a thing, or much less, and a different method that would take hundreds or thousands of years to effect a capture.

The capture energy is primarily related to relative velocity, and then by a smaller factor by the mass of the object.

It would be far more efficient to capture an object that comes closer to earth with a much slower relative velocity, and smaller mass.

2009 KK is simply nowhere near a viable candidate for such an idea.

 

[MichiganMan]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

2009 KK is simply nowhere near a viable candidate for such an idea.

That's not what he asked...he asked how much energy would it take to capture... if you would allow me....

CycloneBuster: After consulting with my friend, Dr. Emmitt Brown, (who is much better at these sort of calculations than I) we deterimined it would be about 1.21 Gigawatts.
Antoine de Exupery suggests that Asteroid B612 would be a much more likely candidate for an outpost...perhaps you should check his writings for more information.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

2009 KK is simply nowhere near a viable candidate for such an idea.

That's not what he asked...he asked how much energy would it take to capture... if you would allow me....

CycloneBuster: After consulting with my friend, Dr. Emmitt Brown, (who is much better at these sort of calculations than I) we deterimined it would be about 1.21 Gigawatts.
Antoine de Exupery suggests that Asteroid B612 would be a much more likely candidate for an outpost...perhaps you should check his writings for more information.

Thanks MichiganMan. You are so kind! How much energy would it have taken back when the torino scale was at 1?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

:lol: You're a prince!

I know that wasn't exactly what he asked. However, I would suggest you go back to Dr Brown and have him recheck his calculations in the future. I think is a vast underestimate.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

{insert sound of multiple asteroids whooshing just overhead}

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

{insert sound of multiple asteroids whooshing just overhead}

BTW : F1>F2

 

[MichiganMan]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Thanks MichiganMan. You are so kind! How much energy would it have taken back when the torino scale was at 1?

42

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Thanks MichiganMan. You are so kind! How much energy would it have taken back when the torino scale was at 1?

42

I read this 42 times and still couldn't tell which one you were talking about!! LOL!!

{Moderator Meteor Wayne: Long off-topic post exorcised}

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Try reference 5.1 and

MOD HAT ON***

Do not make long off topic posts in this thread.

A quick quip is fine.

THIS THREAD IS ABOUT 2009 KK!!

MOD HAT OFF****

 

[galldora]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

hmm .. I am mathematically challenged :lol: Mind if I admit that. That's what I like about the thread. A lot of things I have had some difficulty understanding, have been rather nicely explained.

Mind another round of thanks silylene and meteor wayne?

Also, love love B612 and Antoine de Exupery. The prince comment just about killed me.

thanks again

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Hi all, just wanted to note that the observing window for this object has pretty much closed for the northern hemisphere, even Hawaii. So, until late July, the only locations that will be able to provide new data would be from the Southern Hemisphere. The only active asteroid search program I am aware of is the Catalina Survey scope in Siding Springs, so we need you Aussies to step up!

So we are now entering a time when we will have almost no new data for a month or more while we wait for new obs.

As Johnny 5 would say... Need Input!!

Edit:!!!!! Please ignore the above. I read the wrong dates off the ephemris. I'll be back with a correction shortly- Wayne
As a side note to checking this out, silylene, I will be examining the circumstances under which those last 7 obs from Hawaii were made; be back with that soon.

Also, the first observations after the whiteout, in late July or early August will really narrow down the possible orbits, so it should become quite clear with the late summer data whether 2009 KK remains a threat or not. I'm afraid, we will have to wait until then to determine that; even reports from the south during the next week or so won't likely eliminate it or solidify the threat.

MW

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Sorry about that, I read the wrong date. It's very small numbers on my monitor. You can use those italicized comments a month from now

Anyhoo, it can still be observed from North America at least for a week or two more. I'll have to look at the exact dates for Arizona, as the asteroid is now moving rapidly south in the sky.

It is currently in the constellation Sextans, near 35 Sex.

The Hawaii locations are the last to drop off from the NH, because of the low latitude (~ 20 degrees north), whereas Tucson is about 32 north.

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I didn't go through the whole thread to see if this was already here, but I ran across the old "Impact Calculator." Wayne or Silylene, can you calculate the effects of an impact of 2009KK with this?

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I didn't go through the whole thread to see if this was already here, but I ran across the old "Impact Calculator." Wayne or Silylene, can you calculate the effects of an impact of 2009KK with this?

Boris, that was already done, a few pages earlier in this thread. In summary, damage would be quite extensive over about a 50 km radius, and significant over a 100 km radius. An ocean impact could be worse, perhaps, but we don't have a good model for that.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Rather than steal his thunder, cyclonebuster did exactly this on page 2 of this thread, for two different distances from impact.

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Sorry about that, I read the wrong date. It's very small numbers on my monitor. You can use those italicized comments a month from now

Anyhoo, it can still be observed from North America at least for a week or two more. I'll have to look at the exact dates for Arizona, as the asteroid is now moving rapidly south in the sky.

It is currently in the constellation Sextans, near 35 Sex.

The Hawaii locations are the last to drop off from the NH, because of the low latitude (~ 20 degrees north), whereas Tucson is about 32 north.

Good, we can get another week of observational data!

Is the data from a low angle over the horizon a worse quality, due to a longer light path through the atmosphere, haze, refraction, more thermal layer issues? I have had all these problems when I used to use my little scope. We need good data!

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I'm still checking on the HFTN obs...I was supposed to be at a job interview but it has been postponed, so I'll have time to look at this now.

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Well, I'm sure a job interview would be more important then the fate of the world. lol, j/k. Good luck when you go for it Wayne

It looks like it will be very close to Mars in Jan 2021. Is it possible that if these current observation are off by just a liitle bit, it could result in a impact with Mars around that time frame?