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#### MeteorWayne

##### Guest

**Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022**

silylene":2710h2nm said:cyclonebuster":2710h2nm said:What are the odds of a lunar impact by 2009KK?

At this stage, about 7.4% of the chance it would hit the earth.

(Assuming the earth and moon are approximately equally within the error bar of the object's trajectory - which is correct, since the most likely close approach path is about 50+ lunar distances away - and given the relative radii of the earth and moon, the cross-section of the moon is about 7.4% of the earth.)

That's correct silylene, with such a large distance at nominal close approach, the odds would be essentially the same with the only difference being the size, hence the moon's smaller odds.

For the reading challenged, the current earth impact odds are 1 in 127,000; the moon's is 7.4%

*that or 1 in 1,700,000.*

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