asteroid 2009 KK: Risk in May,Jun 2009

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Indeed it is. Despite Mars lower gravity, a pass at <0.03 AU will cause a significant change in the orbit, so the precise distance and alignment of the CA will have big repercussions down the road (or orbit).

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Not much room for error is there. I'm thinking because Mars does have enough gravity to affect this object that on the next pass we might see an impact on either Earth or Mars. I'm thinking Mars because the gravity "could" change 2009 kk's orbit enough to be brought into a closer approach to Earth. One that may either cause Earth's gravity to send it on a collision cause with Mars, or it's trajectory misses Mars but impacts Earth on the following pass. But of course that's my speculation from trying to predict what this object "may" do.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: Mars in 2017 (?)

Whoa guys, lets not go nuts yet

The orbit has it passing Mars at a distance of ~ 10 X the earth moon distance, and Mars has much less gravity...and the gravity of Mars is used in calculating future orbits, etc, etc, etc.

Still, in the spirit of this thread, here is the CA data for Mars in 2017



Time: 2017-Apr-11 13:40 +/- 16:33 HH:mm
Nom Distance: 0.0279675687729513 AU (4,183,889 km=10.9 x Earth-Moon distance)
Min Dist: 0.027353007990188 AU
Max Dist: 0.0662701989376964 AU
Rel Velocity 11.1064128893787 kps
Impact Probability: 0

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: Mars in 2017 (?)

lol, not trying to be the instigator of panic. I'm talking if the Mars pass does change 2009 KK's orbit slightly, then would that not cause the asteroid to be brought into a close pass with Earth. What I mean Wayne is that if the orbit is affected in the 2017 pass which is still a minimal of 0.0279675687729513 AU, then I am looking at the future minimal pass AU in 2068 from JPL. I am sure that a change in 2017 would significantly affect the 2068 close approach minimal to a point that we either have an impact on Earth, or Mars.

Date/Time (TDB): 2068-Jun-02 02:19
Time Uncertainty: 21:31
Body: Earth
Nominal Distance (AU): 0.0532154365867651
Minimum Distance (AU): 0.0175788473965046
Maximum Distance (AU): 0.0905236788008844
V-relative (km/s): 14.3578942880408
V-infinity (km/s): 14.3544066072968

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

Just to be sure you understand, the deflection by Mars' gravity from the close pass in 2017 is aleady factored into the orbit beyond that point in the ephemeris (not in the 3D viewer). So the deflection in 2017 is required to produce that close pass in 2068.
MW

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

aaahhh, okay. Gotchya. Wasn't quite sure if it was or not.

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

MW et al,

Asteroid 2009 MS now has a Palermo Scale = -1.56 (cumulative) and -2.00 (on 29 Nov 1010 !), 3 days of arc observed.

If this asteroid stays interesting with maybe 5-7 days of arc, let's start a new asteroid thread.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

Yeah, let's definately give it another day or two. The arc is too short for useful analysis.

For example, the nominal orbit period is 2.80 years, yet possible impacts are mentioned on 11/29/10 (PS -2.04 BTW ),
12/2/13 PS -3.31, and 12/7/14 PS -2.00.

The MOID is .03 AU, not even particularly close.

One item of note is that this is a big asteroid... H= +16.1 which could range between 1.5 and 4 km in size!

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

As expected, silylene, 5 more obs and a 5 day arc have pruned the tree to a single PS -4.55 impact in 2034

 

[MichiganMan]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

One item of note is that this is a big asteroid... H= +16.1 which could range between 1.5 and 4 km in size!

getting off topic, but it's still the biggest I've ever seen show up on the hazard list.

Hey, BTW, thanks for pointing out the Mars approaches...I missed that. Something still to "root" for...and guilt free, at that!

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

Bye Bye 2009 MS, from JPL Sentry:

Object
Designation Date/Time Removed (UTC)

2009 MS 2009-06-25 16:50

 

[Cpickens89]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

what kinda damage would we be looking at it if it impacted earth ? i might of skimmed over it theres 12 pages of this lol sorry


and if it hit mars would it cause an orbit shift possibly ? or a big no on that ?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK: passes near Mars in 2017

what kinda damage would we be looking at it if it impacted earth ? i might of skimmed over it theres 12 pages of this lol sorry


and if it hit mars would it cause an orbit shift possibly ? or a big no on that ?

cyclonebuster ran a pair of impact scenarios on Page 2 of the thread

And no, it's far too small to cause a significant change in the orbits of planets.
MW

 

[MeteorWayne]

{Bump to aid in discussion of 2009 SG18}
MW

 

[MeteorWayne]

Once again I am bumping this topic because there is a new Torino Scale 1 object on our radar (or more correctly, photon) screen. This is to provide some historical (not hysterical) perspective- MW

 

[silylene]

This was a good thread.

I wonder if ginyoc is still with us in SDC ?