> <i><font color="yellow">Total Ares I ISS flights is 4 a year.</font>/i><br /><br />The problem is that <i>currently</i> NASA plans to zero out its ISS budget soon after Orion comes on line and well before the Lunar missions. Recently (about a month ago?) NASA expressed interest in supporting ISS beyond 2016, but given that NASA can't win funding for its current list of tasks, adding yet more tasks seems optimistic.<br /><br /><i><b>If</b></i> the COTS efforts succeed (the COTS teams want to do both cargo and humans), then there will be virtually no need for Ares I/Orion until the Lunar missions start.<br /><br />To summarize:<br /><br />Scenario 1: 6 Orion flights per year -- assumes NASA has funding to maintain both ISS and Lunar program, and COTS fails.<br /><br />Scenario 2: 4 Orion flights per year -- assumes NASA is only flying to ISS (no Lunar missions) and COTS fails.<br /><br />Scenario 3: 2 Orion flights per year -- Assumes NASA has exited ISS or COTS is successful, and NASA flying to the Moon.<br /><br />Scenario 4: 0 Orion flights per year -- Assumes NASA has exited ISS or COTS is successful, and NASA is not flying to the Moon (e.g., delays, defunded, etc.).</i>