asteroid 2004 VD17

[silylene old]

Asteroid 2004 VD17 has held the highest danger level in both the NEODYS and the JPL asteroid risk assessments (Torino scale 1) for about 6 months. This asteroid is larger than 2004 MN4 Apophis and moving faster - so if it hit Earth, the damage would be much worse.<br /><br />Anyways, new data just came in, increasing the observation arc for this asteroid significantly to 371 days. This means the orbital trajectory is now rather accurate. A little more worrisome, the new data has approximately doubled the impact risk, to a Palermo Scale -0.97 (Torino scale stays at 1.0). The odds of it hitting Earth have increased to 1 in 7140 in the year 2102.<br /><br />Nothing to get real worried about. (Chances are 99.9% it will miss.) Heck, I'll be dead way before then!<br /><br />It's just interesting to monitor the asteroid risks sometimes. This one will be interesting to watch, as more data comes in over the next year to refine its trajectory better:<br /><br />JPL site: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/<br /><br />ACC News: http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

Yeah, it's hard to get too worked up about something that, in all likelihood, even my daughter will not see. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> But it's fascinating all the same. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

New data and calculations just in.<br /><br />JPL upped the Palermo scale rating to -0.67 based on new data and even a 371 day observational trajectory arc. The last 3 observations from the 2.2m scope in Mauna Kea have tripled the arc, increasing the prediction accuracy significantly.<br /><br />The new odds of 2004 VD17 hitting us in 2102 have been increased to 1 in 3220. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[spacester]

This is very exciting!<br /><br />If these numbers hold up, this means we now have a solid moral imperitive to get our butts up there and establish the capability to deal with this rock.<br /><br />And I don't want to wait until 2100 to get started! <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>