Three asteroids to watch..new (old) data and analysis published

[silylene]

<p><strong>2004 MN4</strong> new data.&nbsp; Palermo Scale -2.62, 5 years of observations. 506 MTon impact energy.</p><p><strong>2001 WN5</strong> now has a Palermo score of -2.13 / -2.08&nbsp; NEODYS/JPL 4709 days trajectory, which is a good long observational arc.</p><p>1/91,00 chance of collision. 0.78km diameter (rather big one!) in 2133, 17330 MTon impact energy.</p><p><strong>1999 RQ36</strong> has a Palermo Scale -1.52&nbsp; (-1.12 cumulative) both NEDOYS and JPL. 10 year observations for a long trajectory.</p><p>1/1410 chance, 0.56 km diameter, most likely collision in 2185, and several other possibilities, 2700 MTon impact energy.</p><p>http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="1">petet = <font color="#800000"><strong>silylene</strong></font></font></p><p align="center"><font size="1">Please, please give me my handle back !</font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>2004 MN4 new data.&nbsp; Palermo Scale -2.62, 5 years of observations. 506 MTon impact energy.2001 WN5 now has a Palermo score of -2.13 / -2.08&nbsp; NEODYS/JPL 4709 days trajectory, which is a good long observational arc.1/91,00 chance of collision. 0.78km diameter (rather big one!) in 2133, 17330 MTon impact energy.1999 RQ36 has a Palermo Scale -1.52&nbsp; (-1.12 cumulative) both NEDOYS and JPL. 10 year observations for a long trajectory.1/1410 chance, 0.56 km diameter, most likely collision in 2185, and several other possibilities, 2700 MTon impact energy.http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm <br />Posted by petet</DIV><br /><br />Wow, interesting stuff.</p><p>Should mention that 2004 MN4 is Apophis, and 1999 RQ 36 is now the most threatening asteroid althogh the impact threat is very far in the future.</p><p>2007 VK184 is still a greater thread than Apophis (Palermo -1.82/-1.83), assuming Apophis misses us </p><p>Have to track down where the new analysis of Apophis and 1999 RQ36 came out, since it involved no new observations</p><p>2001 WN5 is a recovered object so has been sighted after a long gap.</p><p>I see, here's the prepring on the 1999 RQ 36 article. It involved special search for events beyound the usual 100 years or so that Sentry does automatically.</p><p>http://adams.dm.unipi.it/~milani/preprints/future_impacts_08.pdf</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<p>As long as this thread is active, thought I'd mention three more just for fun, since they have possible impacts during the next 3 months.</p><p>They are 2004 FU162, a very small (~ 6 Meter) object with a possible impact on March 31st, and 2004 XY130 a dangerously large object (0.5 km) on April 18th.</p><p>2004 XY130 is currently the 5th most dangerous NEA known based on the Palermo scale (-2.73/-2.80)</p><p>Both of these were observed for a VERY short time in 2004 (0.03 days and 2 days respectively) so the orbits are VERY poorly known. In fact, using the best fit orbit, both will be on the other side of the solar system on those dates. However, because of the short observational arc, it is possible that they could be almost anywhere along their poorly contrained orbits, hence the non-zero impact possibility.</p><p>Should either be spotted again, the probabilty would likely drop to near zero with a single observation during the next few weeks.</p><p>Another interesting one is a close approach by a very small asteroid 2009 BD, which will pass 1.8 times the lunar distance on January 25th.<br />It is a low probability impact risk beginning in 2054</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p>This is one of the asteroids I mentioned when i started this thread.&nbsp; Anyways, the deflection mission would need to be completed in 2060-2080.&nbsp; otherwise a 1/1400 chance of collision with Earth.&nbsp; The mission will need to be planned and funded starting about 2045 ...when I am about 85 yrs old.</p><p>We need more accurate trajectory data !</p><p>http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126945.200-asteroid-bound-for-earth-warn-your-grandchildren.html</p><h1>Asteroid bound for Earth! Warn your grandchildren </h1><ul class="markerlist"><li>09 February 2009 by <strong>David Shiga</strong> </li></ul><p><img src="http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/asteroid-hits-earth-2.jpg" alt="" /></p><p>AN ASTEROID that had initially been deemed harmless has turned out to have a slim chance of hitting Earth in 160 years. While that might seem a distant threat, there's far less time available to deflect it off course.</p><p>Asteroid 1999 RQ36 was discovered a decade ago, but it was not considered particularly worrisome since it has no chance of striking Earth in the next 100 years - the time frame astronomers routinely use to assess potential threats.</p><p>Now, new calculations show a 1 in 1400 chance that it will strike Earth between 2169 and 2199, according to Andrea Milani of the University of Pisa in Italy and colleagues (www.arxiv.org/abs/0901.3631).</p><p>With an estimated diameter of 560 metres, 1999 RQ36 is more than twice the size of the better-known asteroid Apophis, which has a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting Earth in 2036 (<em>New Scientist</em>, 12 July 2008, p 12). Both are large enough to unleash devastating tsunamis if they were to smash into the ocean.</p><p>Although 1999 RQ36's potential collision is late in the next century, the window of opportunity to deflect it comes much sooner, prior to a series of close approaches to Earth that the asteroid will make between 2060 and 2080.</p><div class="quotebx bxbg"><div class="quoteopen"><div class="quoteclose"><div class="quotebody lowlight">The window of opportunity to deflect the asteroid comes much sooner than the potential collision </div></div></div></div><p>Asteroid trajectories are bent by Earth's gravity during such near misses, and the amount of bending is highly dependent on how close they get to Earth. A small nudge made ahead of a fly-by will get amplified into a large change in trajectory afterward. In the case of 1999 RQ36, a deflection of less than 1 kilometre would be enough to eliminate any chance of collision in the next century.</p><p>But after 2080, the asteroid does not come as close to Earth before the potential impact, so any mission to deflect it would have to nudge the asteroid off course by several tens of kilometres - a much more difficult and expensive proposition.</p><p>"That's worth thinking about," says Clark Chapman of the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado.</p><p>As is often the case, more precise calculations enabled by future observations will most likely rule out a collision. But Milani's team says that routine monitoring of asteroids should be extended to look for potential impacts beyond the 100-year time frame, to identify any other similar cases.</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[michaelmozina]

You two are just trying to freak me out now. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[silylene old]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>You two are just trying to freak me out now. <br />Posted by michaelmozina</DIV><br /><br />And having fun with wild headlines.&nbsp; It is just a 1 / 1400 chance.&nbsp; Still very high, given the potential calamity that would occur. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>And having fun with wild headlines.&nbsp; It is just a 1 / 1400 chance.&nbsp; Still very high, given the potential calamity that would occur. <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br />And a moot point for any of us alive now, unless you have some secret reincarnation plan. While I'd like to be here in 160 years, I find that an unrealistic goal at this time.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>And a moot point for any of us alive now, unless you have some secret reincarnation plan. While I'd like to be here in 160 years, I find that an unrealistic goal at this time.... <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br /><br />MW, we should (hopefully) be alive if/when the asteroid diversion mission is being planned and perhaps launched.&nbsp; But we will be probably dead before we know if the outcome of the (possible) mission is successful.&nbsp; So this is something we&nbsp;may be following for the next several decades.</p><p>[of course I am assuming that a diversion mission is required...probably not]</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[michaelmozina]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>MW, we should (hopefully) be alive if/when the asteroid diversion mission is being planned and perhaps launched.&nbsp; But we will be probably dead before we know if the outcome of the (possible) mission is successful.&nbsp; So this is something we&nbsp;may be following for the next several decades.[of course I am assuming that a diversion mission is required...probably not] <br /> Posted by silylene</DIV></p><p>http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Sizing_Up_Asteroids_999.html</p><p>Evidently there may be a new detection method that may help identify and track asteriods. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Sizing_Up_Asteroids_999.htmlEvidently there may be a new detection method that may help identify and track asteriods. <br />Posted by michaelmozina</DIV><br /><br />Yeah, I started a thread on this a few days ago but it attracted no interest. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Yeah, I started a thread on this a few days ago but it attracted no interest. <br />Posted by MeteorWayne</DIV><br />Your thread didn't have a blaring headline about AGW, alien abductions, electric universe, failure of evolution, Michelle Oboma's clothing, or bikini girls.&nbsp; Hence the lack of interest.&nbsp; All kidding aside, I&nbsp;thought it was interesting. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Your thread didn't have a blaring headline about AGW, alien abductions, electric universe, failure of evolution, Michelle Oboma's clothing, or bikini girls.&nbsp; Hence the lack of interest.&nbsp; All kidding aside, I&nbsp;thought it was interesting. <br />Posted by silylene</DIV><br /><br /><img src="http://sitelife.space.com/ver1.0/content/scripts/tinymce/plugins/emotions/images/smiley-laughing.gif" border="0" alt="Laughing" title="Laughing" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>