Asteroid 2006SU49 in the year 2029 - needs a close watch!

[silylene old]

Well, here we go again with another possible upcoming asteroid concern. Before you get worried, please remember this asteroid is a relatively new discovery (just 13 days of trajectory observations) and its future path is not known very accurately yet JPL. Usually, when astronomers get enough information, the error bars can be shrunk enough to know that a collision with the Earth is almost a zero chance.<br /><br />If you like keeping track of this kind of stuff, the The Asteriod Comet Connection has a daily summary update on asteroid observations.<br /><br />Anyways, 2006SU49 is a Torino-Scale 1 object now, with a 1/5000 chance of collision in January 2029. The asteroid has a diameter of 380m and would collide with an energy of 1380 MT.<br /><br />The reason that I posted this is that every new nightly observation of SU59 since its discovery a couple of weeks ago has led to new and more accurate trajectory calculations which have increased the calculated chance of collision. So I thought, maybe it is time to start a thread on this asteroid. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Thanks! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

I wonder how long it would take to put together a mission to put a transponder on it. It makes a near Earth approach in Jan 2010 of about 5 million miles. Then January 2022 about 7 million miles.<br />This seems to be the most recent info.<br /><br /><font color="yellow"> Risk monitoring Web sites were last checked at 2129 UTC, 3 Oct. 2006 (3:29pm at A/CC). </font><br /><br /> Maybe we better let JPL obbserve it for a few days before we start planning an SDC mission to relocate it to GEO<img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[alokmohan]

Last year we heard of another such asteroid.Can you enlighten?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Looks like 2029 is going to be a busy year for watching NEO's! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

New observational data just in, and the object was lowered to Torino Scale 0 (essentially no risk). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[yevaud]

Missed the Keyhole this time around. *Whew* <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

Interestingly, old observational data from 2001 was found, giving a 5-year data baseline for this object, and then this was used to calculate a very accurate future trajectory. The Torino Scale 0 result should now be a valid appraisal of the danger. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[tony873004]

http://orbitsimulator.com/BA/2006su49.GIF<br />Based on latest estimate

 

[search]

Check this: click date set 2029-25-01 and choose either earth or the asteroid in center:<br />http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db_shm?sstr=2006SU49&group=ast&search=Search

 

[search]

Bad astronomy or Km missprint? Comet? Maybe asteroid? Why not Meteorite? Whatever...it missed.<br /><br />"I recall seeing a sequence of photos some years ago of a several hundred meters diameter comet passing within 40K kms"<br /><br />40K Km? (kms chaged to km. Edited following kind suggestion from stevehw33)<br /><br />Closest comets to Earth<br /><br />A few years back, 1996, Hyakutake<br />(9.3 million miles)<br /><br />JUST IN CASE....<br /><br />HO-3 INSURANCE POLICY:<br />Falling objects - damage occurring from objects falling from the sky (meteorites, airplanes, etc.)<br /><br />Meteorites - an underestimated risk?<br /><br />Risk managers will have to think the unthinkable in the future - that is another thing the terrorist attack of 11th September 2001 in the United States has shown - and they will have to consider maximum loss potentials that are albeit improbable but nevertheless possible. Accordingly Munich Re's scientists devote a section in the new study to the first in-depth investigation into the risk of meteorite crashes, of which around 100 were documented last century. These crashes are capable of causing a wide range of damaging effects. One of the best known events involved a meteorite measuring no more than about 50 metres which came down over Siberia on 30th June 1908. The "projectile" exploded at a height of a few kilometres over the Tunguska region; the pressure wave flattened about 2,200 km2 of forest (equal to the area of Mexico City). The study shows that the effects of a "bombardment from space" are to be carried by the insurance industry to a larger degree than has hitherto been

 

[green_meklar]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>http://orbitsimulator.com/BA/2006su49.GIF <br />Based on latest estimate<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Hmm, the asteroid's path is very straight compared to the Moon's orbit in that picture. Is it going by way faster than the Moon or what? Because otherwise it ought to be curving more than that. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>________________</p><p>Repent! Repent! The technological singularity is coming!</p> </div>

 

[tony873004]

Its speed at closest approach is about 5 km/s. That is about 5 times faster than the Moon. Also, it's not obvious from the image, but it also has considerable distance on the z-axis. It is a half million kilometers below the ecliptic at closest approach, making its close approach to Earth 1.2 million kilometers, more than 3x the Moon's distance to Earth.<br /><br />An object passing Earth on a hyperbolic trajectory needs to pass pretty close for its path to be noticably bent by Earth's gravity. For comparison, check out this graphic of Asteroid Apophis' 2029 Earth encounter:<br />http://www.orbitsimulator.com/gravity/a20041.GIF<br />

 

[fatal291]

WERE ALL GONNA DIE!!

 

[green_meklar]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Its speed at closest approach is about 5 km/s. That is about 5 times faster than the Moon. Also, it's not obvious from the image, but it also has considerable distance on the z-axis. It is a half million kilometers below the ecliptic at closest approach, making its close approach to Earth 1.2 million kilometers, more than 3x the Moon's distance to Earth.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Okay, that makes sense. I was thinking that perhaps there would be some distance off the Moon's orbital plane, but even just the factor of five in the speed is probably enough to explain the trajectory. Thanks! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>________________</p><p>Repent! Repent! The technological singularity is coming!</p> </div>

 

[alokmohan]

Bad astronomy article is good..Predicting 2029?ha,ha.Too much.Dont lose your sleep.

 

[spacester]

<font color="yellow">An object passing Earth on a hyperbolic trajectory needs to pass pretty close for its path to be noticably bent by Earth's gravity.</font><br /><br />True enough I suppose, but a modification which is barely 'noticable' to the eye on a small graphical representation is HUGE in ters of the new orbit.<br /><br />Any pass within the Earth's Sphere of Influence, by definition, will modify the orbit. <br /><br />The SOI of a planet is a function of the planet's mass = m, the Sun's mass = M, and the period of the planet's orbit. The period is related to the semi-major axis = a per Kepler's third law.<br /><br />Radius of the SOI = a * (m/M)^0.4<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[search]

Corrected.<br />Thank you for pointing out. <br />I hope you can explain the comet at 40K km from earth (maybe some link)!<br />

 

[tony873004]

SOI = Sphere of Influence

 

[qso1]

Thats extremely close for any object to be passing near earth. I'd think that would have been on CNN by now. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[search]

Using some of our members "dreck" language: <br />Yes it is "pathetically close" and not even CNN would miss it.

 

[alokmohan]

We are debating on a matter supposed to be held in 2029.Till noew we have some knowledge of Gasper ,Ida and Eros.Things were not exactly as we thought.With so little empirical knowledge ,what we are talking may not be better than an astrologer.

 

[search]

The orbit predictions are not accurate and we all know that. <br /><br />This is a discussion on an asteroid in which people freely comment on the subject however some (very few) which think they hold some teaching position in this forum react with less than elegant words to others posts (just because they might contain some scientific err... and sometimes that is not even the case). Then when confronted with their own technics upon their own imprecisions (or not) they radiate the remaining bullying impulses of some kind of BITE model of Steven Hassan (funny how names can be so similar) instead of presenting the sources of the comments so we can all share this extra bit of knowledge.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Closest minor planet approaches<br /><br />link<br /><br />Distance (AU)....Date (TT)....... Provisional designation <br /><br />0.000086* .....2004 Mar. 31.65..... 2004 FU162<br /> * This approach is to about 12900 km = 8000 miles from the center of<br /> the earth. This is approx 4000 miles above the surface.<br /><br />0.000226..... 2004 Dec. 19.86 ...... 2004 YD5 <br />0.000328...... 2004 Mar. 18.92 ..... 2004 FH <br />0.000560..... 2005 Nov. 26.02..... 2005 WN3 <br />0.000564..... 2003 Sept.27.96..... 2003 SQ222 <br />0.00072..... 1994 Dec. 9.79..... 1994 XM1 <br />0.000785..... 2006 Feb. 23.29...... 2006 DD1 <br />0.000788...... 2002 Dec. 11.35...... 2002 XV90 <br />0.000802..... 2002 June 14.09..... 2002 MN <br />0.000820..... 2005 Oct. 10.18...... 2005 TK50 <br />0.000963...... 2005 Mar. 18.91..... 2005 FN <br />0.000991..... 2003 Dec. 6.79...... 2003 XJ7 <br />0.00099..... 1993 May 20.86..... 1993 KA2 <br /> <br /><br />This link <br />is close approaches during the next 33 years.<br /><br />Apophis 2029= 0.0002318 AU<br />2006 FU49 in 2029 = 0.008219 AU <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[alokmohan]

Things may change paths in 23 years.We canot predict so early.