Asteroid may hit Mars, 1 in 75 chance. Tunguska sized

3488 · Dec 21, 2007

50 metres across? That is pretty small. There was a suggestion that the Tunguska impactor might have been a piece off Comet 2P/Encke? Is that still thought to be true, or was it just a rumour? Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 21, 2007

The latest info (~ 1-2 years recent) indicates it was an asteroid, not a comet. MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

3488 · Dec 21, 2007

Thanks MeteorWayne. That would make far more sense. I too think it was asteroidal, rather than cometary in nature, that was why I did not ever really believe in the 2P/Enkce theory. Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 21, 2007

There is a reason for that theory, as the daytime meteor streams that eminate from 2P/Encke do come near earth at that time of year. I'll do more reserch on that; probably after the Holiday, as time is short until then. I don't want to speculate in detail until I've done that. Just don't have the time now. The Honey-do list is pretty well packed over the next few days <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

brandbll · Dec 21, 2007

Question, will one of the oribters at Mars be able take pictures of this event if it happens? How about the Hubble Telescope like they did with Shoemaker-Levy? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> You wanna talk some jive? I'll talk some jive. I'll talk some jive like you've never heard! </div>

3488 · Dec 21, 2007

Hi brandbll, HST probably can. The impact if it happens will be on the Earth facing side of Mars. Whether or not Hubble will have sufficient resolution, I do not know, but seeing as this will be much closer, should be observable. The impact speed may not be as great as Shoemaker Levi 9 with Jupiter, as those fragments had been falling towards Jupiter for some time gathering speed in the giant planet's gravity well. 2007 WD5 & Mars are both in heliocentric prograde orbits, only that 2007 WD5's orbit is far more eccentric & Mars is likely to 'get in the way'. Regarding the Mars Express & MRO orbiters, it would be dependent on where the orbiters are in relation to the impact site @ the time of the impact. I would expect either Mars Express or MRO to catch something, if not the actual moment of impact, hopefully catch at least some of the ejecta falling back & image the plume if one exists. However, both will see the resulting crater, & multispectrally examine the newly exposed bedrock & ejecta blanket. The MER B Opportunity is likely to observe dust clouds travelling from west to east post impact & fortunately Oppy is too far away to be damaged by the impact, but close enough to observe some of the consequences. IF this comes to pass, it will be a major event in planetary exploration. Position of 2007 WD5 as of Friday 21st December 2007 @ 18:00 EST / 23:00 UT. Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

h2ouniverse · Dec 21, 2007

Encke is generating so many divisions... <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

JonClarke · Dec 21, 2007

Well said <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars Arthur Clarke </div>

brandbll · Dec 21, 2007

Will they alter the orbiters courses so that they will be in good position for the impact, or is that sort of out of teh question? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> You wanna talk some jive? I'll talk some jive. I'll talk some jive like you've never heard! </div>

billslugg · Dec 21, 2007

I will make a completely uninformed guess. No, they would not move any of the orbiters except to save them from collision. Reason 1 is that fuel is an extremely valuable commodity. Reason 2 is that a direct view of the impact might not be worth spending much fuel. Reason 3 is that I don't think they would want to be anywhere near an impact. (Good reason to move farther away) It would be nice to have spectrograms of any fireball. But I think you would be limited pretty much to elemental compositions. No so interesting. Later on when you fly over the crater, you can get spectral data on different kinds of rocks. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

brandbll · Dec 22, 2007

"Reason 3 is that I don't think they would want to be anywhere near an impact. (Good reason to move farther away)" Are the oribiters really that low that material ejected could hit them? Or is it that the ejected material just goes so high? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> You wanna talk some jive? I'll talk some jive. I'll talk some jive like you've never heard! </div>

billslugg · Dec 22, 2007

brandbll If the exchange of energy from incoming to outgoing was 100% efficient, then rocks could be shot out to space at the same speed they were during the ingoing ride. No, nothing is ever 100% efficient, but yes, there would be some danger. And in a really big one, in a perfect 90 degree hit, if you are unlucky enough to be at the antipode, you will get shot straight up into the air when the shock wave reaches the far side of the planet (and greatly magnifies) and then what is left of you will be treated to falling blobs of molten rock as the outgoing splatter does a half orbit and collides on the far side and drops straight to the ground. This is known from tektite falls, not survivors. I live in Georgia, host to one of the better tektite fields in the world. One can tread plowed fields in the spring, just after a good rainfall and find one or two per day. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

Smersh · Dec 22, 2007

Me: "I'm guessing that such an impact could result in the mother of all Martian dust storms, lasting for several years perhaps? " shuttle_guy: It is not big enough to do that. Are you sure? The dust storms on Mars are pretty frequent, and the last major one went on for a couple of months (the one that ended in August,) and engulfed nearly the whole planet. Even a 5 megaton blast would surely send an abnormal amount of dust into the upper atmosphere wouldn't it, and the winds would take over from there? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <h1 style="margin:0pt;font-size:12px">----------------------------------------------------- </h1>Lady Nancy Astor: "Winston, if you were my husband, I'd poison your tea." Churchill: "Nancy, if you were my wife, I'd drink it."Website / forums </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 22, 2007

This is too small an asteroid to cause anything to happen at the antipode. It's a baby rock. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

billslugg · Dec 22, 2007

Thus my stipulation "for a really big one." <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

MeteorWayne · Dec 22, 2007

Oops, sorry, missed that. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

dragon04 · Dec 24, 2007

Too bad it's not a significantly more massive impactor. On less than geological timeframes, it might just be "what the doctor ordered" in terms of terraforming, and would supply invaluable data on what a major strike would do in terms of global effects. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "2012.. Year of the Dragon!! Get on the Dragon Wagon!". </div>

3488 · Dec 24, 2007

Hi Dragon04, I agree, if this impact happens, we will learn an awful lot about impact dynamics on Mars in almost real time. I have very severe doubts about terraforming Mars, but this impact with 2007 WD5 will show us much. A really big impact would be something else. 2007 WD5 is thought to be only about 55 metres across, so a baby rock really, as MeteorWayne has already said. Having said that, it will still make a nice crater, about the dimensions of Meteor Crater in Arizona, USA. I hope this DOES happen. We will learn so much from it. Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

ashish27 · Dec 24, 2007

I hope and pray that the asteroid be more dangerous than predicted. This could be the first opportunity for humans (in the scientific age) to witness an asteroid impacting a rocky planet. I don't know if the Mars Orbiter is still operational, but the Martian satellite should be instructed to capture video of this event. IMO tif the impact occurs it would a great moment for planetary science.

tony873004 · Dec 24, 2007

It's predicted path is getting closer to Mars. The media won't run another story until NASA makes another press release, but the updated numbers from some additional observations are now available. December 23rd's data shows it is now predicted to pass 17631 km above the Martian surface, more than twice as close as the prediction made with December 21st's data. This doesn't necessarily mean that the odds of 1 in 75 have improved. I don't know what the error bar is on the new data. http://orbitsimulator.com/gravity/images/MarsDec21.GIF

Swampcat · Dec 25, 2007

I don't know if this is anything particularly new, but SpaceflightNow has an article on this... Space rock could hit Mars <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------------------------------- "I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. Unsuccessful rebellions, indeed, generally establish the encroachments on the rights of the people which have produced them. An observation of this truth should render honest republican governors so mild in their punishment of rebellions as not to discourage them too much. It is a medicine necessary for the sound health of government."Thomas Jefferson </div>

3488 · Dec 28, 2007

Recent observations have increased the likelihood of a Mars impact to 1 in 25. The odds may yet be reduced further as uncertainties in exact trajectory are being ironed out. Odds of impact have decreased to 1 in 25 or 4%. Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

phaze · Dec 28, 2007

With only 30 days to go, I'm surprised there is still a doubt about whether it will hit or not. Since I assume we have pretty solid data about where Mars will be, this must be caused by our trajectory (is that the right word?) information for the asteroid? There wouldn't be any other factors that could affect things at this point, right?

brellis · Dec 28, 2007

Odds of impact have decreased to 1 in 25 or 4%. gotta check the Vegas line on that <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> So many cool possibilities and questions - do the rovers have a way of detecting a seismic tremor, if an impact this size would even create one? The orbiters move around the planet pretty quickly - might they get a profile pic of sunlit ejecta if it hits? Could the asteroid skim by so close that Mars' atmosphere "aerobrakes" it a bit, or even causes it to break apart? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> I'm a recovering optimist - things could be better. </div>

silylene old · Dec 28, 2007

Andrew, your link says 1 in 75 chance. Odds of impact have decreased to 1 in 25 or 4%. I think you meant increased. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function. </div> </div>

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