Congrats to China - What will be their role in spaceflight of the future?

[michaelmozina]

<p>http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90881/6506427.html</p><p>It seems to me that China is making great strides in their space program.&nbsp; Congradulations are clearly in order.&nbsp; I'm curious what other think of China's involvement in manned space flights?&nbsp; It seems to me that our desire to reach Mars is significantly improved by their interest in manned space flight, and it could be productive for both contries to work together on these kinds of large scale projects. &nbsp; </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[skyfolly]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>.</DIV><br />not a big deal really since many countries(those who haven't done that) on earth can also do that if they put resources on it, it is just a political propaganda by the communists. the current political status of China prevents them from joining forces of the western world's space program, they once asked to join the international space station program, but USA rejected, so they are pretty much on their own.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;it is no economic benefits whatsoever from the program, esp the plan of manned&nbsp; moon program, they just wanna show the world, "we can also do it." although late yet better than nothing. </p>

 

[JonClarke]

<p>Since China will be an economic superpower by the middle of the 21st century I think this is a most positive development.&nbsp; The more nations that develop crewed spaceflight capability the better.&nbsp; It makes it less likely that any one country pulls out because of the lost of prestige and, if one nation does stop, it means that the human race is still exploring space.</p><p>I hope for, and expect, a slow but steady increase in Chinese spaceflight capability and increased cooperation with other nations in space, something they are already doing.</p><p>I am very excited by the Chinese space program, which is diverse and growing.&nbsp; It includes crewed missions, communications and earth observation programs, space science, and lunar and planetary missions</p><p>Jon</p><p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[mopy]

<p>Yes, the Chinese should definitely be congratulated and, no doubt, there will be more of that in the years to come.</p><p> The Chinese program seems to be very deliberate, methodical and measured. In other words they're taking their cool time and doing it at their own pace. The fact that they've done only 3 manned flights in 5 years indicate that. They don't seem to be in any rush, contrary to what some western news (BBC) reports saying that they're in some race. Race with whom...?</p><p>The Chinese generally lay out a 5 year plan for their country, economy, science, space etc. In their current 5 year plan they hope to have a space lab by 2010, 2 years from now. So far they are on track. Shenzhou 8 and 9 are supposedly unmanned to test docking abilities. If successful then Shenzhou 10 will be manned, which is about the right time frame for their manned launches. So we can expect 2 unmanned launches in the next year or two, I suspect. I also suspect that Shenzhou 10 might just dock with what's already there left by 8 and 9 and voila! you have a space lab.</p><p>As for the ISS I'm personally glad that the Chinese are not involved (even though the Russians want them there). It means that they'll have to discover things on their own and that's the best kind of education. If they were involved I believe that the americans would just give them tourist rides and privileges and they would learn nothing. In 2010 the shuttle is supposed to be phased out. The replacement Orion is not due to fly until 2015. What's the U.S. going to do in between those years? Especially if the politics between them and the Russians get worse? The only player in the field then will be China. And they, hopefully, will have their space lab by then. As the years go by China's desire to be a part of ISS decreases as there will be little to gain. Japan's module for the ISS cost them millions, if not billions, and what have they got in return...? And what has China gotten thus far on their own...?</p><p>Already China is already cooperating with Brazil, Venezuela, some other countries including Russia with whom their contacts are increasing. China doesn't really need america, not any more. In fact I was just listening to the radio and the gentleman said that the present administrator of NASA is concerned that the U.S. might fall behind China. I'm not sure if he really said that but if he did I can well understand the concern...</p><p>China's deliberate and methodical approach shouldn't be underestimated. It shows a definite goal (the moon and onward) and purpose and determination...and will not be sidetracked by sudden flash-in-the-pan, grandiose schemes...</p><p> For those of us who really like space I'd put greater trust in the Chinese to get it done (albeit more slowly) than I would trust anyone else... </p><p>Congratulations and continued good luck to them!&nbsp; </p>

 

[skyfolly]

<p>Interesting, that USA is giving up on the shuttle, and developing Orion Rocket systems instead, Do NASA people consider the Shuttle program a failure? eg. Due to The high costs and fatal accidents. Soviet Russia did similar program before, but they gave up becos of high costs and maybe technological difficulties.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

 

[mopy]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Interesting, that USA is giving up on the shuttle, and developing Orion Rocket systems instead, Do NASA people consider the Shuttle program a failure? eg. Due to The high costs and fatal accidents. Soviet Russia did similar program before, but they gave up becos of high costs and maybe technological difficulties.&nbsp; <br /> Posted by skyfolly</DIV></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Yeah, I think so; cost, complexity and risks. The Russians probably reached the same conclusion long ago and decided to drop theirs. Is it coincidence that Orion is designed as a capsule...? Having said that the shuttle has been pretty good in getting the job done though...but too cumbersome and expensive...</p><p>Personally I think it looks ugly sitting there on the pad. Like a Mack truck...</p>

 

[michaelmozina]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Since China will be an economic superpower by the middle of the 21st century I think this is a most positive development.&nbsp; The more nations that develop crewed spaceflight capability the better.&nbsp; It makes it less likely that any one country pulls out because of the lost of prestige and, if one nation does stop, it means that the human race is still exploring space.I hope for, and expect, a slow but steady increase in Chinese spaceflight capability and increased cooperation with other nations in space, something they are already doing.I am very excited by the Chinese space program, which is diverse and growing.&nbsp; It includes crewed missions, communications and earth observation programs, space science, and lunar and planetary missionsJon&nbsp; <br /> Posted by jonclarke</DIV></p><p>I tend to agree with you on all counts.&nbsp; It think it's great that other nations and now even private enterprise are starting to get involved in space exploration.&nbsp; It can only help increase our knowledge and increase our interest in space. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> It seems to be a natural consequence of our points of view to assume that the whole of space is filled with electrons and flying electric ions of all kinds. - Kristian Birkeland </div>

 

[skyfolly]

<p>what are the Chinese doing now is what countries like USA and Russia had done half of a century ago,&nbsp;USA even sent probes far into edge of the solar system in the 1970's, ie voyoger 1 & 2. when NASA is planning a manned program to Mars(2040s?) Chinese are working on manned Moon Program. Pathetic reallly, unless they come up with sth new, new&nbsp;inventions for example, their space program is seen just like a total copy cat business to me.</p><p>&nbsp;What is interesting though, there is only one economical benefit from reaching the moon, it is the Helium 3 on the moon. heh, mining the moon, sounds difficult enough.</p>

 

[JonClarke]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>what are the Chinese doing now is what countries like USA and Russia had done half of a century ago,&nbsp;USA even sent probes far into edge of the solar system in the 1970's, ie voyoger 1 & 2. when NASA is planning a manned program to Mars(2040s?) Chinese are working on manned Moon Program. Pathetic reallly, unless they come up with sth new, new&nbsp;inventions for example, their space program is seen just like a total copy cat business to me.&nbsp;What is interesting though, there is only one economical benefit from reaching the moon, it is the Helium 3 on the moon. heh, mining the moon, sounds difficult enough. <br />Posted by skyfolly</DIV></p><p>Why is it pathetic?&nbsp;</p><p>They are developing their own technology and hardware and doing so very successfully.&nbsp; This is something to be celebrated not belittled.&nbsp; Is Brazil pathetic because&nbsp;because they built their first airliner in the 70's when other countries did so in the 20's?&nbsp;The point is building, diversifying,&nbsp;and expanding space capabilities, not who does what first, and when.</p><p>As for the Moon, He3&nbsp;not a resource as it can't be used for anything at present. If we needed it it could made easier here on earth from lithium.&nbsp; And economic benfit is not the sole justification for going to the Moon.</p><p>Jon</p><p>Jon</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[dragon04]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90881/6506427.htmlIt seems to me that China is making great strides in their space program.&nbsp; Congradulations are clearly in order.&nbsp; I'm curious what other think of China's involvement in manned space flights?&nbsp; It seems to me that our desire to reach Mars is significantly improved by their interest in manned space flight, and it could be productive for both contries to work together on these kinds of large scale projects. &nbsp; <br /> Posted by michaelmozina</DIV></p><p>I'm not altogether sure that the Chinese will ever "cooperate" in the manner that, say, NASA, ESA, JAXA and Russia do. Culturally, and therefore technologically, I don't think China is wired that way. I think that also breeds much of the mistrust we see, or think we see.</p><p>Why won't they just be part of the ISS? Why do they have to do all this Moon Rocket stuff over when the US and Russia have already been there? Why does China have to have its own Space Station?</p><p>Those are all legitimate and fair questions. jonclarke made one very fair answer to it, as well. They want to develop their OWN technology as opposed to taking that of others and improving on it. In some ways, I agree with that, and at least understand it. One would not build a house the same way atthe North Pole that they would in Florida due due climate and geological considerations. Now, that's an analogy.</p><p>I don't ever recall China ever being terribly interested in being tremendously "Active" in a "Global Community". We tend to follow the European Model of socialization. China does not, and with good reason. Europe, in the Modern Era at leasthas always been busted up into from a few to dozens of countries, each independent, but regionally dependent on its neighbors.</p><p>China, being one of the longest standing civilizations known to Man was isolated from that, by and large. Wow. My apologies for turning this into a Sociological Anthropology discussion.</p><p>But I thought I needed to explain my opinion. They're not "socialized" in the same manner nor to the same degree that a lot of the rest of the world is, and more than a little of that has to do with never being "conquered" repeatedly over history as most other nations/cultures have. </p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <em>"2012.. Year of the Dragon!! Get on the Dragon Wagon!".</em> </div>

 

[JonClarke]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>I'm not altogether sure that the Chinese will ever "cooperate" in the manner that, say, NASA, ESA, JAXA and Russia do. </DIV></p><p>Except that they are increasingly doing so.</p><p>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Culturally, and therefore technologically,&nbsp;I don't think China is wired that way. </DIV></p><p>Traditionally China has seen itself as the Middle Kingdom, and thus the centre of the universe.&nbsp; But they are hardly unique in this.&nbsp; The US has always thought itself better than everyone else, as have many European cultures.</p><p>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>They're not "socialized" in the same manner nor to the same degree that a lot of the rest of the world is, and more than a little of that has to do with never being "conquered" repeatedly over history as most other nations/cultures have. <br />Posted by dragon04 </DIV></p><p>Not quite true.&nbsp; They were conquered by the Mongols and the Manchus and for the 2nd half or the 19th and first half of the 20th century repeated defeated and subjugated by the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan. The rise of a strong, independent China is something the world has not really seen since the start of the Ming dynasty&nbsp; in the 14th century.</p><p>Jon<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[ZenGalacticore]

Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Since China will be an economic superpower by the middle of the 21st century I think this is a most positive development.&nbsp; The more nations that develop crewed spaceflight capability the better.&nbsp; It makes it less likely that any one country pulls out because of the lost of prestige and, if one nation does stop, it means that the human race is still exploring space.I hope for, and expect, a slow but steady increase in Chinese spaceflight capability and increased cooperation with other nations in space, something they are already doing.I am very excited by the Chinese space program, which is diverse and growing.&nbsp; It includes crewed missions, communications and earth observation programs, space science, and lunar and planetary missionsJon&nbsp; <br />Posted by jonclarke</DIV><br />China is an economic superpower NOW. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>ZenGalacticore</p> </div>

 

[ZenGalacticore]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>Interesting, that USA is giving up on the shuttle, and developing Orion Rocket systems instead, Do NASA people consider the Shuttle program a failure? eg. Due to The high costs and fatal accidents. Soviet Russia did similar program before, but they gave up becos of high costs and maybe technological difficulties.&nbsp; <br />Posted by skyfolly</DIV></p><p>We've gotten over 25 years of useful service and have gained an incalculable amount of knowledge and&nbsp;experience with the U.S. Space Shuttle, not a failure by any definition. It served its purpose and is now outdated. We will develop a new generation of re-usable, atmospheric capable spacecraft in the near future. In the interim, we will employ the Orion rocket system.</p><p>Fatal accidents have nothing to do with cancelling anything when it comes to the United States of America's Space Program! I can't speak for ESA, or the Russian, Japanese or&nbsp;Chinese programs, but loss of life WILL NOT STOP THE U.S.A in pursuit of exploration and the aquisition of knowledge! How many 'Fatal Accidents' were there in the history of Europeans crossing the Atlantic Ocean to colonize the Americas?</p><p>The Russian shuttle never got into space. And you're right, it was because of economic constraints and some technological difficulties. But the Russians have a strong history in Chemistry, Physics, and Rocketry; they failed because of the wishful-thinking Communist system.</p><p>Think about this: There's&nbsp;only been five operational Space Shuttles, right? (All made in the U.S.A., BTW) And two of them have exploded, one right after launch, one on re-entry. So let's ponder, if there were only five commercial jumbo-jet aircraft in the world, operating for 25 YEARS, and only two of them ever exploded, what would that be? Success or failure?&nbsp;I'D SAY THAT IS A SUCCESS!</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>ZenGalacticore</p> </div>

 

[JonClarke]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>China is an economic superpower NOW. <br />Posted by ZenGalacticore</DIV></p><p>Certainly it is a major economy, part of the second tier after the US and EU.&nbsp; That will change over the next few years.&nbsp; India two is on the threshold of being a economic superpower.</p><p>Jon</p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>

 

[JonClarke]

<p><BR/>Replying to:<BR/><DIV CLASS='Discussion_PostQuote'>The Russian shuttle never got into space. And you're right, it was because of economic constraints and some technological difficulties.&nbsp; <br />Posted by ZenGalacticore</DIV></p><p>Buran actually flew once unmanned, the Energia launcher twice.&nbsp; Both worked very well.&nbsp; Buran and Energia were abandoned for several reasons, the Buran was not really needed for space missions and with the end of the cold war Energia, the prime booster for the Star Wars-busting Polyus orbital defence system was suprlus.&nbsp; Fruther development was curtailed by the Russian economic crists of the 90's.</p><p>Jon<br /></p> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Whether we become a multi-planet species with unlimited horizons, or are forever confined to Earth will be decided in the twenty-first century amid the vast plains, rugged canyons and lofty mountains of Mars</em>  Arthur Clarke</p> </div>