Deep Impact Predictions

dmjspace · Jul 15, 2005

silylene said: I never said comets and asteroids are the same (I don't think that they are, in fact). Good to see the addition of a couple more scientific thinkers around here, rather than usual pseudoskeptical noisemakers. Several people are arguing that comets are not fundamentally the same as asteroids. If that's the case, how are they different? Before the history revision begins (actually, it's too late, but before it gets into high gear), let's go back to what the mainstream model expected from Deep Impact: water, and lots of it. The few estimated densities of comets and asteroids that exist are simply that, estimates. Or, more appropriately, guess-timates. Out of the 2000+ known asteroids, only a dozen or two have any density estimate at all. And we have physical pieces of them on Earth. The comet situation is far worse. Even though we got within 400 miles of comet Halley, there is no definitive data on its density. Whatever your source, there is also no agreement on whether Hally (or any other comet) is a "dirty snowball" or a "snowy dirtball." Luckily, Tempel is probably going to render the errant phrase "dirty snowball" a relic of eras bygone. At which point we'll be stuck with "snowy dirtball," which is precisely what the EPH said comets were all along: asteroids with pockets of volatiles comprising no more than 20% of weight. We frankly don't know anything about comets' true density or composition, a fact which is supported by the very mission we're discussing here, Deep Impact, whose main goal was to see what's inside Tempel. This won't be a newsflash to anyone paying attention: The data show it ain't water in quantities anywhere near expected by the snowball model. Already, even in the posts here, it is quite apparent that snowball model supporters are subconsciously accepting that something drastic needs to be d

dmjspace · Jul 15, 2005

Though we hear nary a peep from NASA 11 days after impact, observatories around the world are starting to make tentative conclusions about the Deep Impact data. According to the European Southern Observatory: From the current analysis, it appears most likely that the impactor did not create a large new zone of activity and may have failed to liberate a large quantity of pristine material from beneath the surface. The appearance of a new plume-like structure diffused away in the days following impact, with the comet taking again the appearance it had before the impact. The same jets were visible before and after impact, demonstrating that the comet activity survived widely unaffected by the spacecraft crash. Normal gas activity and activity from a pre-existing “active” region are still being measured. Spectropolarimetric observations have confirmed the surface of the comet to be rather evolved, and found that the dust is not coming from beneath the surface. In a few short words: the impactor's effect on Tempel was transient. Negligible. Nominal. Slight. Whether intentionally or not, the ESO summary above presents an already damning case against the snowball model's expected results: *There was no pristine material liberated after the 23,000 mph impact *The dust cloud erupted and dissipated, leaving the comet virtually unchanged (except, of course, for the presumed crater, which ESO doesn't even mention). *The dust came from surface regolith. Logical conclusions: the comet is a rock covered with dust, with pockets of volatiles that outgas on occasion. The ejecta cloud largely escaped the comet, meaning it's strength dominated, not gravity dominated. One point about the crater: IF and when it's measured, the cratered region itself can only be considered a result of the impactor, N

maxtheknife · Jul 15, 2005

Dmjspace: IF and when it's measured, Uh oh, Dmj. That may be a problem.... These guys don't like to measure things. Measuring gets threads demoted to 'Phenomena'. Measuring has no place in Space Science or Astronomy. <img src="/images/icons/crazy.gif" />

geos · Jul 15, 2005

Jul 15, 2005 The Missing Water of Comet Tempel 1 We have long suggested that, after Deep Impact, scientists would be scratching their heads over the lack of subsurface water—the last hope of the dirty snowball theory. Early results confirm this prediction. Early in the morning of July 3, we registered our predictions for Deep Impact (July 4), when a widely heralded “impactor” would strike the nucleus of Comet Tempel 1. We presented these predictions based on the electric comet hypothesis as interpreted by Wallace Thornhill and other members of the Thunderbolts crew. To the best of our knowledge, we set forth the most specific and detailed scientific predictions offered by any group in anticipation of the event. We stated our purpose explicitly— “With the imminent arrival of the ‘Deep Impact’ spacecraft at the comet Tempel 1, it is time to test competing theories on the nature of comets. The predictions and lines of reasoning offered here will set the stage for future analysis of the ‘electric comet’ model”. It has now been almost two weeks since we posted these predictions, and the Deep Impact investigative team has made it clear that it could be many weeks before an analysis of certain crucial details will be released. Yet information already disclosed provides a good sense as to how well the electric comet model has performed against the “dirty snowball” model of popular theory. In this and following Pictures of the Day we shall begin an analysis of specific results. We stated: “An abundance of water on or below the surface of the nucleus (the underlying assumption of the “dirty snowball” hypothesis) is unlikely”. Though this was never a deal killer for the electric model, the absence of sufficient water in a comet is a deal killer for the dirty snowball model. We wrote: “In fact none of the electrical theorists will be surprised if the impactor exposes a subsurface with little or no ices.

geos · Jul 15, 2005

"I didn't post any guesses regarding the impact." We know that - so why do you post here?

geos · Jul 15, 2005

You have not posted ANY guess. You have said NOTHING. You are factually "correct". This thead is RESERVED for people who discuss Deep Impact predictions. I ask again - what does that have to do with you - a persistent complainer?

telfrow · Jul 15, 2005

Geos to Packet: ...so why do you post here? Why do you post here? To cut and paste from thunderbolts.info and advertise the site? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild. - Tennyson </div>

geos · Jul 15, 2005

Of course if a correct theory posts CORRECT guesses!! Of course if a correct theory posts CORRECT guesses!! Of course if a correct theory posts CORRECT guesses!! Why does money come into it? Doesn't getting Shuttle crews killed by Mega-Lightning interest all of youse guys?

telfrow · Jul 15, 2005

Why does money come into it? Who mentioned money?!?!?!? Doesn't getting Shuttle crews killed by Mega-Lightning interest all of youse guys? And, pray tell, what does that have to do with Deep Impact predictions? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild. - Tennyson </div>

a_lost_packet_ · Jul 16, 2005

geos - You have not posted ANY guess. You have said NOTHING. You are factually "correct". This thead is RESERVED for People who discuss Deep Impact predictions. I ask again - what does that have to do with you - a persistent complainer? I posted several times in this thread discussing the implications of Deep Impact and had a short discussion with dmjspace. However, I certainly do not have to qualify my remarks to you. I don't know what your particular problem is but I assure you, if I thought you should offer an opinion on my posts, I'd give it to you. I didn't rattle your cage so I'm making a pleasent request to you to cease your attack. Let it go. If you wish to continue some vendetta against me, I suggest you take it to Freespace. This is neither the proper thread or forum for such discussions. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> I put on my robe and wizard hat... </div>

geos · Jul 16, 2005

What about rattling cages? If I am right it is my duty to inform all of youse (political correctness be damned) like this: observed ices in the Jovian and Saturnian system do not produce explosive jets while comets at the same distances do.

geos · Jul 16, 2005

"And, pray tell, what does that have to do with Deep Impact predictions?" /* Highly distasteful comment removed */

spacechump · Jul 16, 2005

Geos, You're a sick individual you know that? Go away....now.....

telfrow · Jul 16, 2005

/* Reference to deleted comment removed */ That's disgusting, Geos. You're sick. Get help. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild. - Tennyson </div>

geos · Jul 16, 2005

What I should have said "the Astronauts turned into a ionized streak". Maybe that would be less offensive - but since my posts are routinely ignored what difference would it make??

geos · Jul 16, 2005

Go away and TAKE YOUR IMPORTANT ISSUES ALONG WITH YOU!!

telfrow · Jul 17, 2005

Go away and TAKE YOUR IMPORTANT ISSUES ALONG WITH YOU!! No thanks....but right back at you. (And BTW, you're shouting again....who else likes to do that?) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild. - Tennyson </div>

a_lost_packet_ · Jul 17, 2005

geos - Maybe that would be less offensive - but since my posts are routinely ignored what difference would it make?? A bit of honest advice: Perhaps if you were not so inflammatory in your posts, people would not ignore them. I'm really trying to be helpful here. If you clearly stated in your own words what you wished to say and invited commentary in an open and honest way, I am sure people would respond. If you acknowledged helpful posts, commented on their contents and offered further commentary or just a friendly question, maybe you wouldn't be dissatisfied with the outcome. Less confrontation, more discourse.. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> I put on my robe and wizard hat... </div>

colesakick · Jul 17, 2005

Why is a pissing match superceding the issue of the validity (or lack there of) of Electric (plasma) Universe or EPM versus the gravity theory of stellar system formation? Where is the needed discourse over the merits of each of these modals? The gravity theory is not superior simply because it was thought of first or dwelt on the longest. We know that what we find last will be the more accurate of all that went before so why all this resistance to other models? These are sound models that make accurate predictions, so vastly superior to what we’ve assumed up to the formation of these models. Discuss the merits of all scientific thought for it all deserves consideration. We are all miraculous beings with amazing insights if only we quiet our egos and let our consciousness explore for truth. Quantum physics tells us that consciousness permeates the universe in a way that connects us to the source of its energy. Like an alternating current, our minds and the subatomic particles that comprise our “physical” bodies swim in a flow of energy that passes through everything. The separation between us and the solidity of things is an illusion, the experts will tell you. A mind sufficiently void of ego (a false identity with an illusion of being “other” than the rest in some greater; lesser; or equal capacity) can attain uncommon vision and understanding (even Nirvana as some would say). A quest that is aimed at making a name for oneself is doomed at the outset because it is egocentric and perceptually disconnected from background consciousness that knows everything already. I know this all sounds esoteric and kooky. I didn’t make it up though. I gleaned it from the likes of Capra (the Tao of Physics), Baum (the Implicate Order); etc. . .. If they are correct, universal truth (truth about the universe) is incomprehensible to those who made themselves experts at learning a field of study and with pride seek to excel in it rather than seeking the truth for its own sak <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Intellectual honesty means being willing to challenge yourself instead of others </div>

najab · Jul 18, 2005

>I...see clearly that planets can and do explode.Really? <img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" /> ( Even TVH didn't see that.)>...due to energy influx through Aether units...<img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" />>...97% of DNA was thought to have been random and useless, now we know that it is the superstructure of a quantum computer complete with program code and executable files...<img src="/images/icons/shocked.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" />

telfrow · Jul 18, 2005

najaB, you beat me to it...<img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yeild. - Tennyson </div>

maxtheknife · Jul 18, 2005

Steve: Phil Plait's Badastronomy.com website addresses the Hoagland nonsense. Lol, you still have the audacity to use Plait as a refrence? I proved that dolt wrong in the first two pages in this thread.... http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=phenomena&Number=273247&fpart=1&PHPSESSID= Plait is one of the most offensive 'political/pseudo' scientists of all.... Off one degree? Ha! Accurate to within .2 degrees..... Where are Plait's measurments? Oh that's right..... anything but artificial <img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" />

zenonmars · Jul 18, 2005

colesakick: Your link ( http://www.16pi2.com)./ ) isn't working for me. Can you repost it? My favorite Aether link is : http://www.aetherometry.com/ stevehw33: " The enterprise--.com website is a Hoagland site, and his opinions/beliefs on matters astronomical, are for the record, terribly mistaken and unsubstantiated... As Plait is a real astronomer, and Hoagland has no formal training in the sciences, the odds are good in Plait's favor alone. Given the clear discrediting he's done of Hoagland, no reasonable person, who's educated and capable of critical thinking, will give enterprisemission.com the time of day." steve, what "critical thinking" were you doing when you were 17 years old? Please elaborate. http://www.enterprisemission.com/weblog/weblog.htm ("Monday, July 18, 2005 - Deep Impact ... Deeper Denial") <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

emperor_of_localgroup · Jul 18, 2005

I have been reading thread with some interest. But, guys, be nice to each other, there's no reason to throw mud at each other. If certain theory is wrong, that'd be proven wrong sooner or later. And there's no reason to gloat either (like Geo does). As much as I like to see some new theory to come up, but we cant throw away the old theories, which have undergone some tests, because of one outcome. Even when all data from the Deep Impact come back, I dont think the score between Exploded Planet and Dirtball theories will be settled. But it makes me wonder. If our theories cant correctly predict about objects so close to us, how would they hold up againt far deep space objects? Is electrical theory still in the race? Becuase I thought they predicted a big electrical spark before the impact? Did that happen? We saw a glow, but not sure what caused that. Anyway, I'll keep reading, even the links you post. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> Earth is Boring </div>

maxtheknife · Jul 18, 2005

The proof is in the puddin', Steve..... http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=phenomena&Number=273247&fpart=1&PHPSESSID= How about some statistical analysis? http://uplink.space.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=phenomena&Number=248286&fpart=1&PHPSESSID= The one not doing the work is the pseudoscientist.

Deep Impact Predictions

dmjspace

Guest

dmjspace

Guest

maxtheknife

Guest

geos

Guest

geos

Guest

geos

Guest

telfrow

Guest

geos

Guest

telfrow

Guest

a_lost_packet_

Guest

geos

Guest

geos

Guest

spacechump

Guest

telfrow

Guest

geos

Guest

geos

Guest

telfrow

Guest

a_lost_packet_

Guest

colesakick

Guest

najab

Guest

telfrow

Guest

maxtheknife

Guest

zenonmars

Guest

emperor_of_localgroup

Guest

maxtheknife

Guest

Similar threads

TRENDING THREADS

Latest posts

Share this page