M
michaelmozina
Guest
I'm interested in attempting to develop a directionally sensitive CME warning/watch scale based on current solar activity as seen in 195A and other SOHO/STEREO images. Today for instance I would say that the likelihood of a CME aimed towards earth is very close to zero. There is almost no activity happening in 195A in our direction. It's a little higher than zero IMO only because there is still one active region in the southern hemisphere that hasn't yet gone over the horizon.
Has someone already done something like this?
It seems to me that there should be "points" on the scale for active regions observed in 195A on our side of the sun, maybe extra points for larger active regions or multiple regions in the same hemisphere, or two regions in close proximity across the equator from each other that directly interact with each other. An observed sunspot on our side of the sun should also carry some extra weight because sunspots typically form over highly active regions and many time flares occur during sunspot activity. I could try to add something related to the magnetic field orientations, but those are generally related to 195A activity and it therefore including these images and data sets in the warning scale seems redundant from my perspective. The CME process does seem to be solar cycle dependent, but that cycle dependency relates back the what can also be observed in 195A, so I don't see any need to include any sort of cyclical dependency into the scale.
Is there anything else that I should attempt to add to the scale that anyone can think of?
Has someone already done something like this?
It seems to me that there should be "points" on the scale for active regions observed in 195A on our side of the sun, maybe extra points for larger active regions or multiple regions in the same hemisphere, or two regions in close proximity across the equator from each other that directly interact with each other. An observed sunspot on our side of the sun should also carry some extra weight because sunspots typically form over highly active regions and many time flares occur during sunspot activity. I could try to add something related to the magnetic field orientations, but those are generally related to 195A activity and it therefore including these images and data sets in the warning scale seems redundant from my perspective. The CME process does seem to be solar cycle dependent, but that cycle dependency relates back the what can also be observed in 195A, so I don't see any need to include any sort of cyclical dependency into the scale.
Is there anything else that I should attempt to add to the scale that anyone can think of?