Developing a Earth oriented CME "watch/warning" scale.

Status
Not open for further replies.
M

michaelmozina

Guest
I'm interested in attempting to develop a directionally sensitive CME warning/watch scale based on current solar activity as seen in 195A and other SOHO/STEREO images. Today for instance I would say that the likelihood of a CME aimed towards earth is very close to zero. There is almost no activity happening in 195A in our direction. It's a little higher than zero IMO only because there is still one active region in the southern hemisphere that hasn't yet gone over the horizon.

Has someone already done something like this?

It seems to me that there should be "points" on the scale for active regions observed in 195A on our side of the sun, maybe extra points for larger active regions or multiple regions in the same hemisphere, or two regions in close proximity across the equator from each other that directly interact with each other. An observed sunspot on our side of the sun should also carry some extra weight because sunspots typically form over highly active regions and many time flares occur during sunspot activity. I could try to add something related to the magnetic field orientations, but those are generally related to 195A activity and it therefore including these images and data sets in the warning scale seems redundant from my perspective. The CME process does seem to be solar cycle dependent, but that cycle dependency relates back the what can also be observed in 195A, so I don't see any need to include any sort of cyclical dependency into the scale.

Is there anything else that I should attempt to add to the scale that anyone can think of?
 
H

harrycostas

Guest
G'day Michael

Good on ya mate.

Do it regardless.

I would assume NASA would have some form of warning scale.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
Hey Harry!

Oh, I'm definitely going to do it. I'm just trying to figure out all the things it should include. FYI, I think I'll probably add some additional factors related to the speed, density and recent variations of the solar wind as well.
 
S

silylene

Guest
I think a CME severity ranking is needed too, something simple that the press can understand like the Torino Scale.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
That "severity" factor is what makes me think that including the current solar wind velocity and density might be useful. It might give us some insights into the potential for high speed ejections. I think I need to do some additional research into the some of the more severe flares of the recent past (seen by at least SOHO) and see what other things I might have missed. I agree that the scale would have to be simple to understand and preferably something I can program into pure code so I don't have to hand calculate the number every day.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Can you demonstrate a correlation between velocity, density, and 195A obs to effects on earth? Until you do, your efforts don't really mean much.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

I'm also thinking that the GEOS x-ray data is related and should also be included in the scale because it shows the number of x-ray spikes and the severity of these spikes from the active regions. A greater the number of x-ray spikes and the presence of more powerful spikes, may mean it's more likely that CME's will follow. The CME event "trigger' event should show up in the GEOS x-ray data as well as be visible in 195A long before it gets to Earth.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Again, first you have to show the effects, THEN correlate how the different input tools correlate with the intensity of the effects. Since we haven't had anything even approaching severe in the last.,...oh 4 years? you are trying to create a scale with no foundation; just your own perception of the anticipated effects which have not been realized.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
MeteorWayne":tv9ccrmy said:
Can you demonstrate a correlation between velocity, density, and 195A obs to effects on earth? Until you do, your efforts don't really mean much.

I can identify a connection between events observable in 195A and solar flares that produce plasma ejections. I have started a couple of threads here already on that topic. A flare in our direction would result in increases in solar wind density and velocity in a few days. I'm thinking however that this data might be more meaningful as it relates to the overall cyclical activity (higher velocity at the peak of the cycle) and more useful in tracking the accuracy of the method itself. In other words, if I correctly identify a flare in our direction in 195A, it should show up in the solar wind data in the next few days. If not, my method of using 195A images to identify solar flares needs to be adjusted and/or scrapped. I'm rather confident of the connection however and I've already tracked a few of these sorts of flares to make sure they show up in the solar wind data. They do.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
But you are discussing a watch/warning scale, without demonstrating ANY effect on earth that are in need of watches or warnings!!!!
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
MeteorWayne":cd54uk2c said:
Again, first you have to show the effects, THEN correlate how the different input tools correlate with the intensity of the effects. Since we haven't had anything even approaching severe in the last.,...oh 4 years? you are trying to create a scale with no foundation; just your own perception of the anticipated effects which have not been realized.

Definitely not. We have over 10 years of SOHO and GEOS data to work with now. Admittedly some of this is based on my own "perceptions", but what prediction method wouldn't involve some "assumptions" related to cause/effect processes?
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Then please show now,

1 What the effects on earth were that required warnings on specific dates. (i.e. the predictands)

SPECIFIC!

2 What the data that you intend to use as predictors were preceding those events, and how they correlate to the usefulness of a "Watch Warning" scale, as well as the lead time.

Otherwise, you're just makin' stuff up.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
MeteorWayne":cghic25p said:
But you are discussing a watch/warning scale, without demonstrating ANY effect on earth that are in need of watches or warnings!!!!

I'll tell you what Wayne.....

I've already got a thread started around here on the cause/effect relationships between 195A activity and ejections of plasma seen in Lasco and STEREO Cor2 images which you are welcome to comment on. I will continue to post to that thread every time I observe an event in 195A that looks like it should spew plasma that will show up in LASCO or COR-2 images and we'll see how I do for awhile. I'll also post the correlations between such events and what we see in goes-x rays data. Any events that seem to point directly at us (I'll note that if/when they occur) should/must show up in the Wind data to be considered a "successful" prediction. Does that sound fair?
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
MeteorWayne":x0vu341g said:
Then please show now,

1 What the effects on earth were that required warnings on specific dates. (i.e. the predictands)

I haven't started a warning system yet. :) The one event I tracked recently from 195A to ACE was this one:

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=18487

2 What the data that you intend to use as predictors were preceding those events,

I'm personally more interested in the 195A images than any other type of data. I'm soliciting ideas as the whole point of this thread.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Sure, in fact if you'll recall I was the one that suggested you keep it in one thread. But so far, you have shown NO effect on earth on which to base even the concept of warnings and watch, which by definition infer some detrimental effect to the planet. That's what I'm waiting for.
What I'm saying is that until there's ANY effect on earth, the concept of watches and warnings when nothing has happened is silly.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
MeteorWayne":27mx7m78 said:
Sure, in fact if you'll recall I was the one that suggested you keep it in one thread. But so far, you have shown NO effect on earth on which to base even the concept of warnings and watch, which by definition infer some detrimental effect to the planet. That's what I'm waiting for.

Hmm. As I see it, there are two parts to this "warning system", only one part that could predict severity. The first goal is to be able to "predict" when CME's are more likely to occur. The idea is to have some advance warning so that I can have some automated way of getting a "heads up" when things are "active". The second part of this process would be to identify the CME event in 195A/x-ray as it occurs and then track it through the solar system with STEREO/SOHO. Only in the tracking process could you really "predict" the severity aspect "well" IMO.

What I'm saying is that until there's ANY effect on earth, the concept of watches and warnings when nothing has happened is silly.

Well, I certainly hear you in terms of the potential for a "chicken little" scenario where the warning system is seen as always inferring something "bad" is going to happen on Earth. What's more likely to show up on Earth are auroral events (another good tracking method by the way). The primary beneficiary of such data would be satellite operators, and people working in space, but it would necessarily need to have a severity scale then as well. It is also important that it not produce many if any "false alarms". I think only once in my lifetime has the sun actually blown out power systems on Earth so I doubt anyone on Earth much cares for such warning system with the possible exception of the power companies.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
I think at this point I'm leaning toward using a coloring scheme (green, yellow, orange, red) related to present solar wind conditions, and a numbering scale (1-10) to designate the likelihood of of a future CME in the next 24 hours.

The color scheme would relate to the actual presence of a a CME in the solar wind, or lack thereof. Green would mean there are no mass ejections currently visible in Lasco or COR images. Yellow would be a warning color denoting the presence of small CME events in the solar wind which don't look particularly threatening. Orange would be indicative of a larger mass ejections that "could be" harmful to satellites and humans in space, and red designating the presence of a very large CME. The number scale would be specifically related to the LIKELIHOOD of a CME occurring in the next 24 hours.. The number scheme would not be related to current solar wind events, but rather the likelihood (or lack thereof) of a CME occurring in the next 24 hours. For instance, something like "Green-3" would mean there are no mass ejections visible in the solar wind at the moment, and there is only a minority likelihood of any mass ejections occurring in the next 24 hours. A label of 'Yellow-6' would designate that there are small mass ejections that are visible in the solar wind at the moment, and there is a increased likelihood of other events occuring in the next 24 hours. Orange and Red would be specifically related to larger and visible mass ejections that are observable in COR-2 and/or LASCO-C2/C3 images.

Ideally, I'd like to create a daily "prediction" for each of the three primary solar satellites, the two STEREO satellites, and also the SOHO spacecraft. The SOHO warning codes would more directly relate to the Earth and events on the Earth. Doing a prediction set for all three satellites would give me a better chance to see how well the scale is working because in theory at least, each prediction set could be tracked and monitored. It will also allow things to be tracked through the whole cycle, particularly as STEREO-A and B reach the optimal locations for seeing the whole sun at once.

Does this plan sound "reasonable" and simple enough to follow, or am I making it too confusing?
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Seems too confusing to me, but I don't have time for useful input today. Too much Mod work :(

Heck, even hoemland security is about to abandon the color scale (though for different reason :) )

I guess the key question really is, what are you trying to accomplish? Will you be issuing alerts for events that will have no effect on anything on or in orbit around the earth? If so, what is the point? It leads to the "crying wolf" syndrome, which is always a risk with any alert system.

False alerts can be more detrimental than successful ones.

So I'd suggest you go back and examine that primary question more closely. :)

Wayne
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
MeteorWayne":25tomibq said:
Seems too confusing to me, but I don't have time for useful input today. Too much Mod work :(

Hmm. Thanks for the feedback. I wondered how trying to use both a color and numbering scheme might go over.

Heck, even hoemland security is about to abandon the color scale (though for different reason :) )

I guess the key question really is, what are you trying to accomplish?Will you be issuing alerts for events that will have no effect on anything on or in orbit around the earth? If so, what is the point?

I would assume CME's can and do have an effect on satellite and people in space. I would likewise assume that only the very largest types of CME events would be likely to have any effects on Earth, and those are maybe once in a lifetime sort of events. I'm not actually trying to predict those once in a lifetime sort of events with this scale, I'm actually trying to predict when satellite systems and human beings in space may be in harms way. It's not really a scale intended to be seen or used by the general public, rather it is designed more for satellite operators and humans in space.

It leads to the "crying wolf" syndrome, which is always a risk with any alert system.

False alerts can be more detrimental than successful ones.

So I'd suggest you go back and examine that primary question more closely. :)

Wayne

I definitely hear you Wayne about the possibility of this seeming like a crying wolf syndrome. IMO that seems to be why Homeland security dropped their color code. I guess the reason I'm trying to use two different schemes here is because there are really two things being tracked and predicted. The first part (the color code) is intended to acknowledge CME events as they can be seen in LASCO and COR instruments, but before they reach Earth or any of the STEREO satelite. The second numbering scheme is more aimed at actually 'predicting' such events based on the amount of activity seen in 195A and the x-ray wavelengths.

Anyway, thanks for the feedback on the confusion factor. I'll have to chew on that for awhile.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
No problem, mm. I really am trying to provide constructive feedback.
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
I appreciate your feedback Wayne. I 'm just struggling with how to make the scale "simpler", and not come off like chicken little.. :)
 
M

michaelmozina

Guest
MeteorWayne":15dl61fj said:
I guess the key question really is, what are you trying to accomplish? Will you be issuing alerts for events that will have no effect on anything on or in orbit around the earth? If so, what is the point? It leads to the "crying wolf" syndrome, which is always a risk with any alert system.

False alerts can be more detrimental than successful ones.

So I'd suggest you go back and examine that primary question more closely. :)

Wayne

You know Wayne, I've come to realize the wisdom of your response now that I've processed it a bit. I'm thinking at the moment that it might make more sense to start with something a little "smaller scale" and a little more "practical" for a general human audience. I think that a sunspot forecasting scale might be a better place to begin. It seems to me that more folks around here might appreciate a "heads up" of when the odds are advantageous to look for newly forming sunspots. This way folks would know when it might be fun to get out their gear (and their special filters of course) and look for sunspots that may be forming in the photosphere. We can even track accuracy of the scale in SOHO images.

I'm sure some folks have already figured out the correlation between the activity in 195A and sunspots, but I think I might try my hand at forecasting the odds of sunspots forming in the next 24-48 hours and we can see how that goes. With any luck that may eventually lead to some observations of CME's in their early stages. IMO they are all related by the activity we see in the iron ion wavelengths, or the lack thereof. Without intense activity in 195A, it is highly unlikely that any sunspots will form, but even when activity is seen it is not always the case that a sunspot forms in the photosphere. We might all learn a thing or two along the way, and it seems immensely more practical in terms of a reaching a broader potential audience, and hopefully it will lead to some interesting discussions that eventually move into the CME process. What do you think of that idea?
 
P

Payloadcontroller

Guest
Actually there is already a scale of CME size with corresponding effects. And that branch of NASA does send out warnings to groups that may be affected, such as power grid managers, managers of pipeline systems, satellite controllers, ISS operators, etc.

As to effects, they've already discovered that the Alaska pipeline is deteriorating at a much higher rate than they expected due to the electrical currents generated in it as a result of CMEs impacting Earth's magnetic field. The ionic activity inherent in those currents is causing corrosion. That's just one example.

If I can find the scale I'll come back and post it here.
 
P

Payloadcontroller

Guest
And please don't use filters for solar observations unless you're a professional. Use a projection system. It's much safer.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts