Developing a Earth oriented CME "watch/warning" scale.
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It seems to me that the relationship between active regions and sunspots is 'complicated' to say the least. While the highly active region did produce a sunspot as I thought it would, the smaller active region that formed yesterday (and the day before) in the northern hemisphere is actually producing two different sunspots of approximately the same size as the larger active region in the southern hemisphere. It's not necessarily the case that larger active regions necessarily produce substantially (proportionally) larger sunspots.
FYI, today's STEREO-B 195A images show a growing active region in the southern hemisphere that could ultimately develop into a sunspot in coming days. That region is already visible on Earth in the southern hemisphere and seems to be creating "bright regions" in the photosphere already. The image also shows a much more substantial active region in the northern hemisphere that should be coming over the horizon in SOHO images in the next few days. That region looks large enough and active enough to have already formed a sunspot. It's definitely worth keeping an eye on. IMO both active regions are capable of generating flares/CME's and the active region in the southern hemisphere looks to be growing rapidly at the moment.