Developing a Earth oriented CME "watch/warning" scale.

[MeteorWayne]

Perdon, mes amies, I ascribed it to the wrong agency. It is NOAA that keeps up with it, and here is the link to alerts and warnings: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/index.html

And here is the scale of effects they base them upon: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

Thanx for those links, good stuff.

 

[michaelmozina]

Perdon, mes amies, I ascribed it to the wrong agency. It is NOAA that keeps up with it, and here is the link to alerts and warnings: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/index.html

And here is the scale of effects they base them upon: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

Hey, very cool. Thanks for the information and the links. I appreciate it.

 

[Payloadcontroller]

No prob. I'm an old moderator/astronomer from the early days of SDC, gone awhile, now wandered back to the fold. Glad to help.

 

[michaelmozina]

I'd say that there is an "elevated" likelihood (25%) of seeing sunspots form around he active region in the lower hemisphere that is coming over the horizon in SOHO. The area looks to be pretty active in 195A, and I get the impression it will become more active as it rotates past SOHO's view. That has been the pattern of the last several active regions in the southern hemisphere.

 

[Payloadcontroller]

I need an antecedent for 195A to understand your theory. Are you referring to a spectral line? A specific region on the Sun? A gridded angular direction? I've had different impressions through the reading of the thread, but I'm currently leaning toward spectral line...

 

[michaelmozina]

I need an antecedent for 195A to understand your theory. Are you referring to a spectral line? A specific region on the Sun? A gridded angular direction? I've had different impressions through the reading of the thread, but I'm currently leaning toward spectral line...

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/brows ... 95_512.mpg

I'm referring to what I would call "active regions" that can be viewed in 195A, 171A, and 284A in STEREO and SOHO images. For instance there is one fairly large active region in the southern hemisphere that is nearly centered in this STEREO ahead image, and another "smaller" active region nearer the left limb that is smaller than the main active region, but also capable of generating small sunspots. I'm looking specifically at the brighter active regions that we observe in the iron ion wavelengths.

 

[michaelmozina]

I need an antecedent for 195A to understand your theory. Are you referring to a spectral line? A specific region on the Sun? A gridded angular direction? I've had different impressions through the reading of the thread, but I'm currently leaning toward spectral line...

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/rea ... atest.html

If you look at a current SOHO MDI continuum image, you can see the effect of this 195A activity in the southern hemisphere on the left limb as that active region is entering SOHO's field of view. If you observe the last 284A movie on SOHO's website, you may notice that a number of "active" regions became more active as they reached close to the midway point of SOHO's field of view. If that active region increases it's activity during this pass in front of SOHO, it could generate sunspots IMO. While sunspots require the presence of a nearby active region, there is no simple one to one correlation. The more active the region in 195A, the more likely it is to create sunspots, but activity observed in 195A is not an automatic guarantee of a sunspot. There seems to be a "level of activity" factor that is related to sunspot formation that is more difficult to "predict".

 

[michaelmozina]

Sunspot forecsting

FYI, based on what I've seen in the SOHO iron ion images for the past month, I'm going to increase the odds of a sunspot forming in the southern hemisphere in the next 7 days to 40%. The main factor will be whether or no the active region in the southern hemisphere becomes more active over the next couple of days.

The iron ion wavelengths show a pattern of the active regions in the southern hemisphere becoming more active as they rotate in our direction. The best estimation I can make at this time would suggest that the 8/1/09 would probably be the most likely time for the sunspot to begin to form, and it could last as long as a week or so. Keep in mind that all of this is predicated upon whether or not the active becomes more active as it rotates in our direction just as it did on the last rotation cycle. FYI, the gold 284 images show more than a whole rotation cycle if you're interested in watching what happened to this region on the last rotation cycle. If there is a "pattern" to that activity, it should pick up in a few days.

 

[Payloadcontroller]

Oh VERY nice. So the iron and gold spectral line strength/distribution is an indication of impending activity. Both being conductive elements; hm. Are you looking at the magnetic orientations via polarization of the light as well? Does that show any correlation?

 

[michaelmozina]

Oh VERY nice. So the iron and gold spectral line strength/distribution is an indication of impending activity.

Yes. A sunspot seems to require the presence of a "large" active region, "active" meaning it can be seen in iron ion wavelengths, 195A, 171A, and 284A. Such active regions are also often linked to CME events. I tend to use the SOHO and STEREO movies to get a quick overview of what's going on at 195A at the moment. The SOHO 195 images tend to span a few days, and a single day on the STEREO movies. The addition of STEREO is pretty cool because we'll be able to track the active regions on all sides of the sun as they get into their optimal position.

FYI, there were two fairly major CME events recently, one on 7/31 which starts to become visible at around the 11:06 image of LASCO C2 images. Unfortunately there is a large gap in the SOHO data from that point till about 21:00 or so. Fortunately the CME can be seen very well in the STEREO COR1 and COR2 behind images. Based on the trajectory, that CME seems to be pointed away from us.

The second CME comes from from the active region in the southern hemisphere can be seen in the 195A SOHO images in the 8/1/09 image at 02:48. It can also be seen in the STEREO ahead images starting at about 02:35 and particularly the 02:45 image. That CME seems to be pointed toward the southern polar region and out of the planetary plane.

Sunspots tend to be require a bit more concentrated activity than I see at the moment. I am interested to see if the active regions increases or decreases in intensity over the next few days. If so, there is some change a sunspot will form IMO, but unless the activity increases from what it seems to be right now, I don't anticipate any sunspot formation

Because the 284A image cover more than 27 days (about the length of a solar rotation compared to earth), I tend to use the movie images from 284A to look for "patterns of increases in activity".

Both being conductive elements; hm.

Well, all plasma is pretty conductive, but coronal loops are conductive IMO.

Are you looking at the magnetic orientations via polarization of the light as well? Does that show any correlation?

I don't really know because I've never looked for a polarization correlation. It's an interesting question however.

 

[michaelmozina]

I've been taking a sort of a "postmortem" look at what happened last week.

In retrospect would say that I "overestimated" the percentage (I hiked it from 25% to 40%) likelihood of a sunspot formation. That overestimation was based in part on an "assumption" (observed previous patterns actually) that the active region would increase it's overall activity as it traversed from one horizon to the other in our field of view. That never happened. In fact, the reverse seems to be true. The active region in the lower hemisphere seems to have become less active, particularly after a minor flare up on 8/1. The Big Bear WL images show that no sunspots formed in the photosphere as a result of the active region in the southern hemisphere. That active region is now about to go over the far horizon. There are no other active regions observable in the STEREO-B or SOHO 195A images that appear to be capable of creating/causing sunspots. Evidently we're back to totally "quiet" phase for awhile.

 

[michaelmozina]

As if to show the connection between 195A active regions and CME's, the active region in the southern hemisphere decided to spew a bit in our direction. You can see the CME occur in the active region in the STEREO-Ahead 195A image, and both COR-2 images. This seems like a low risk CME, but it is headed in our general direction.
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/brows ... ndex.shtml

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

By looking at the current images there is probably no way to determine what is and isn't a "safe" level occuring CME in our direction, just weather it looks good or bad. I wonder if there is a way to create a more decissive scale and particle detection/radiation to be more accurate.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Interesting, tangentially related discussion from SOHO:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/

 

[michaelmozina]

Thanks for the link Wayne. I've been tracking that CME in the ACE data. We took a pretty good hit on the 6th and 7th form that CME. I've been a big fan of SOHO for a long time now, and I still find myself going to the SOHO images every morning to see what's up with the sun. I'm finally learning to appreciate the STEREO system a lot more recently, particular the COR1 and COR2 images.

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/brows ... ndex.shtml

As well as both COR2 STEREO images from the 4th, the COR1 behind image is IMO one of the more interesting views of that particular CME. I particularly appreciated the high cadence of images and the way it shows the change in solar wind speed during the CME process. The 284A -Ahead image provides us with one of the better views of the event in the iron ion wavelengths.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulatio ... /home.html

The ACE simulations show a significant uptick in both the solar wind speed and the density of the solar wind on the 6th and 7th. On the 6th there is a significant pickup in particle density, followed by a significant uptick in the velocity about 6 hours later.

 

[nightqueen]

I was registered at your forum. I have printed the test message. Do not delete, please.



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[michaelmozina]

I guess we're back to a very 'quiet' solar phase again since there isn't a single really "active" region to be found in any of the views of the sun from STEREO or SOHO. So much for sunspot forecasting for the next several weeks.

 

[UFmbutler]

If you think any are coming soon let me know, otherwise my lab where we look at sunspots will be pretty boring this semester

 

[michaelmozina]

If you think any are coming soon let me know, otherwise my lab where we look at sunspots will be pretty boring this semester

I'll let you know (in this thread) if I see anything interesting coming over the horizon. It's been almost a week from my last post and I still don't see any active regions that might be capable of producing even a "small" sunspot at the moment. It could be a pretty boring lab at this rate.

 

[michaelmozina]

If you think any are coming soon let me know, otherwise my lab where we look at sunspots will be pretty boring this semester

FYI, there is a small active region forming in the southern hemisphere today at about the 4:00 position, maybe half way toward the limb. It's hard to say for sure because it's only a pixel or two wide, but there seems to be a very tiny sunspot forming in the latest SOHO MDI continuum over/under the active region. It's not much to look at to be sure, and it may not actually be a full fledged sunspot, but considering how quiet the sun's been recently, if class has started already, I'd take them out there today and see if it develops into a full fledged sunspot.

 

[michaelmozina]

It's all your fault Wayne....

I've been kicking myself a bit for not mentioning the active region that ultimately became (albeit very briefly) sunspot 1025. I do think it taught me something about the activity level that is required to produce sunspots however, so I'll call it an "education".

It also made me realize Wayne that your "chicken little" warning about CME's had some affect on me too. I guess in retrospect I didn't want to be producing a lot of false alarms related to sunspot prediction, and that particular active region didn't look "big" enough to me at first to justify another "maybe a sunspot will form" scenario. I think in the future I'll keep an eye out for such actively growing regions and at least mention them as they start to get more active. I think in retrospect a few false alarms are worth the possibility of catching something forming, even if it's only for a short duration, and even if it's a relatively small active region.

FYI, next week looks very quiet, at least in the current STEREO-B images. The STEREO-Ahead images show that the last couple of active regions have remained fairly active and they may revisit us in a few weeks. The next week however looks pretty quiet, but as 1025 taught me, things can change in just a few short hours, a day at max. I'll keep my eye open for anymore intense flareups that might produce even small sunspots like 1025, but right now the side of the sun that is rotating in our direction looks pretty quiet.

 

[scottb50]

No problem, mm. I really am trying to provide constructive feedback.

Even though I agree with your discussion there is a minimal, 6-7 minute warning of an event that could be dealt with. The resources are in place to allow recactions.

 

[michaelmozina]

FYI, there is a small active region visible in 171A in the southern hemisphere at approximately the 7:00 position that has been growing for the past 24 hours. It could ultimately develop into a sunspot if it continues that pattern of growth for another 12-24 hours. There is also a highly active region coming over the horizon in the Stereo (behind) images that should rotate in our direction in another week that is probably already generating sunspots on the far side of the sun.

 

[michaelmozina]

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/brows ... 95_512.mpg

Today's STEREO-B 195A images show a large active region that will be coming over the horizon in SOHO next week. This is one of the first really active regions I've seen in quite a while now. I would expect a high probability of sunspots to appear on our side of the sun soon. This active region also has a strong capability of producing CME's. It's exciting to see some real action after all these many months.

 

[michaelmozina]

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/lar ... 534631.jpg

There a nice amateur submission of this sunspot from Pete Lawrence of West Sussex in the UK. Nice image. This active region also looks to be capable of releasing some fairly significant CME's.