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Equation to Find intelligent life

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Oct 21, 2019
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the 40 billion is based off research I found from 2013 saying there is 40 billion earth like planets in our solar system, the 1 out of a thousand is purely an estimate.
Err, since the demotion of Pluto there are now only 8 planets in total in our solar system, and currently only one earth like planet (the Earth!), although Venus and Mars may have been earth like for a period of time earlier in the solar system's history.....
 
Nov 2, 2020
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Meaning there are (more or less) 23 intelligent species in the universe, and due to how many of those that could be advanced enough to use or understand space travel, is possibly 1 out of 23, maybe 2 or 3 out of 23, and the reason why we haven't discovered them yet.
I'm not such an expert but if that is true, this means that we are expecial in the Universe. Anyways the Universe is big, really big, for this reason 23 sounds stange in my opinion...
Great job though, I've never thought about it, and I'm not able to do equations like this, for this reason, great!
 
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Catastrophe

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
Feb 18, 2020
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"Anyways the Universe is big, really big, for this reason 23 sounds stange in my opinion..."

Vincen, I think you are absolutey correct to doubt such a preposterous statement which imho can only be based on more or less inspired imagination.

Cat :)
 
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Jun 1, 2020
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It’s all about the objective evidence. Each variable requires its own set of dots to connect, making it even more challenging. If any one variable = 0, you get toasted, and not in celebration. 😀

But we should keep a mindset that these are likely to be taken in degree, not kind. Just 3 decades ago we had 0 exoplanets, but we are well on our way to 10k in a few years.
 

Catastrophe

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
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We can only evaluate the present as we find it. As you rightly point out, the future will provide new evidence for evaluation, one way or another. And another future will follow . . . . . . . . .

Cat :)
 
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Catastrophe

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
Feb 18, 2020
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“Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”

Very true (imho) but did he have anything to say about the equation, other than P = 0 or 1?
`
Cat :)
 
Jun 1, 2020
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“There might be creatures in the universe to whom a thousand-year voyage would present nothing more than slight boredom… ‘[And a]re we certain that the speed of light is an unbreakable barrier?’ … even if [it] could not be defied, [it] might be evaded.“ Clarke, 2001: A Space Odyssey
 
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Catastrophe

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
Feb 18, 2020
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Helio, "There is nothing new under the Sun", or perhaps we should add "or on the other side of it"?

You are, of course, quite correct as usual. Sigh ;) Even on Earth we have life which lasts only mnutes or hours, and life which lasts a thousand years. And we can slow down light by passing it through different media. Perhaps we can compress space so we can still keep under c, but travel more quickly through the intervening 'distance'. Use the constant c simply by compressing space as c seems to be constant under all conditions. I admit that I do not expect to be doing this any time soon.

Cat :)
 
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Nov 2, 2020
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And we can slow down light by passing it through different media. Perhaps we can compress space so we can still keep under c, but travel more quickly through the intervening 'distance'. Use the constant c simply by compressing space as c seems to be constant under all conditions.
Of course, this is correct. I want to do this "preface" only because I'm afraid that you can misunderstand the concept I want to introduce: WormHoles. During my life I spent a lot of time trying to understand how is possible that universal distances were so long. Firstly, I thought these distance were meant to be something like a "barrier", such an umbreakable barrier made by a superior intelligence, or even God, if you believe in it, in order to make humans unable to come to other planets. Secondly, I learned to see the Universe as a three-dimesional object in a four-dimensional "space" covered by holes that connect two different part of it even very far from each other.
I know, the first part of the speech could sound like a conception made by me, but the second part is important to take into account. And what's more, if you read well about WormHoles, the explanation of them I gave you is roughly the same!
I nearly forgot, I want to say that these distances can be "reduced" as you said, and maybe you're right, but the thought about WormHoles caould be more plausible...
 
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Catastrophe

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
Feb 18, 2020
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Hi Vincen, the difficulty I have with wormholes is: is the entry thought to be like a black hole?
In this case I can imagine survival of subatomic particles, but spaghetti effects on objects like humans. Am I wrong here?

Cat :)
 
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Mar 29, 2021
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Heyo,
(not sure if this is the right place to post this)
Was looking for place to get feedback on this, so maybe this will work. I wrote an equation today after doing a tiny bit of research over intelligent life and inhabitable planets. I want feedback on if this equation works in a way or if it is false and shouldn't be used.


ELP ÷ PLS x SNS ÷ EIR= PIS

ELP
is Earth Like Planets
PLS is Planets inhabited (Planets with livable Species) (what I'm going to use is 1/1000)
SNS is Species Needed to Survive (food and communication reasons)
EIR is Earth Intelligence rate
PIS is Possible Intelligent Species

So what I came up with is:
40,000,000,000 ÷ 1000 x 5 ÷ 8,700,000 = 22.98

Meaning there are (more or less) 23 intelligent species in the universe, and due to how many of those that could be advanced enough to use or understand space travel, is possibly 1 out of 23, maybe 2 or 3 out of 23, and the reason why we haven't discovered them yet.

Any feedback on my equation would be amazing, thank you for reading.
 
Feb 13, 2020
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Heyo,
(not sure if this is the right place to post this)
Was looking for place to get feedback on this, so maybe this will work. I wrote an equation today after doing a tiny bit of research over intelligent life and inhabitable planets. I want feedback on if this equation works in a way or if it is false and shouldn't be used.


ELP ÷ PLS x SNS ÷ EIR= PIS

ELP
is Earth Like Planets
PLS is Planets inhabited (Planets with livable Species) (what I'm going to use is 1/1000)
SNS is Species Needed to Survive (food and communication reasons)
EIR is Earth Intelligence rate
PIS is Possible Intelligent Species

So what I came up with is:
40,000,000,000 ÷ 1000 x 5 ÷ 8,700,000 = 22.98

Meaning there are (more or less) 23 intelligent species in the universe, and due to how many of those that could be advanced enough to use or understand space travel, is possibly 1 out of 23, maybe 2 or 3 out of 23, and the reason why we haven't discovered them yet.

Any feedback on my equation would be amazing, thank you for reading.
HUH? Yes, I am being facetious. If that is the only number of intelligent species in the UNIVERSE, then all our attempts at contacting other species is nearly a useless task. So...
 

Catastrophe

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
Feb 18, 2020
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That is only showing that you can get whatever answer you ike, or don't like, just by jiggling variables in the "equation".
In fact this one might be re-named a nonquation. Dead duck.

dead duck: a person or thing that is defunct or has no chance of success

Cat :)
 
I think a useful guess at life will come when we drill into mars, or one of the many ice moons around a gas giant.

If we don't find some format of life on any of them then life is probably a very freakish thing here on Earth.
If we do find life will it be so similar to life on Earth we get no real clue about life in the galaxy just a good idea it can transport in a solar system.
If we can't transport life in our solar system from impacts then the chance of it moving between stars is slim to none.

Guess the next 20-50 years will tell.
 
Of course, this is correct. I want to do this "preface" only because I'm afraid that you can misunderstand the concept I want to introduce: WormHoles. During my life I spent a lot of time trying to understand how is possible that universal distances were so long. Firstly, I thought these distance were meant to be something like a "barrier", such an umbreakable barrier made by a superior intelligence, or even God, if you believe in it, in order to make humans unable to come to other planets. Secondly, I learned to see the Universe as a three-dimesional object in a four-dimensional "space" covered by holes that connect two different part of it even very far from each other.
I know, the first part of the speech could sound like a conception made by me, but the second part is important to take into account. And what's more, if you read well about WormHoles, the explanation of them I gave you is roughly the same!
I nearly forgot, I want to say that these distances can be "reduced" as you said, and maybe you're right, but the thought about WormHoles caould be more plausible...
A wormhole is more of a concept of imagination than anything else.
None have been spotted around black holes so my guess is they don't or can't exist.

No need for a wormhole when most of the universe is void space.
Travel like gravity between quanta orbits and go anywhere at whatever speed you like.
Just got to expand the (nothing) to do it and you might want to travel a bit in normal space or you will go infinity fast infinity far in an instant. :)
 
Nov 2, 2020
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Hi Vincen, the difficulty I have with wormholes is: is the entry thought to be like a black hole?
In this case I can imagine survival of subatomic particles, but spaghetti effects on objects like humans. Am I wrong here?

Cat
I'm sorry to reply you just now, I've been busy in this period, but this isn't a news...
Equation to Find intelligent life

Sorry, but I think this question is dead duck and we are in danger of diverting in circles on completely different topics.

Cat
And I'm really sorry to reply now under this, but this is very important in my opinion.
Worm Holes aren't Black Holes, they are totally different; moreover they seem to be the opposite in many aspects. Black Holes can live for a gogle years (gogle is the number one followed by one hundred zeros), instead of Worm Holes, able to live few minutes; Black Holes couldn't be small because of Hawking Radiations, Worm Holes are tought to be able to be as small as atoms (I'm not saying they all are as small as atoms); finally, Black Holes are tought to bring you to another dimension or another Universe whereas Worm Holes represent this link between two parts of the Universe.
I'm not totally sure about the lifespan of Worm Holes, I'm not such an expert but I think this depend on their mass...
I'm sorry to be not a lot present here but I was busy, from now on I'll try to be more present.
 

Catastrophe

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
Feb 18, 2020
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Vincen, that is fine by me. I was saying that this thread is about equations like Drake's and I believe that that is thoroughly dead.
However, your point could be relevant to one of the variables in the equation.
B/w Cat :)
 

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