Equation to Find intelligent life

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Nov 2, 2020
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Vincen, that is fine by me. I was saying that this thread is about equations like Drake's and I believe that that is thoroughly dead.
However, your point could be relevant to one of the variables in the equation.
B/w Cat :)
Hi Cat! I'm glad my idea is resonable for you, anyway, I want to tell you, you all I mean, that it's too soon to talk about something like filling the variables with numbers and valiues, but the equation by itself is something about what we can argue in my opinion (?)
Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
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Catastrophe

Approaching asteroid? Is this THE one?
Feb 18, 2020
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Vincen, I am not saying you are wrong. But I am saying that, as long as these equations contain strings of unknowns and guesses, they are IMHO a waste of life talking about them.

DEAD DUCK!

Cat :)
 
Apr 19, 2021
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Is it safe to assume that drake equation is false because it does take one important detail into calculation?

Which is, the amount and type of energy and minerals near such civilizations which could be harvested to support their life.

If for example our solar system had multiple habitable planets we could live on those planets, but how would you really support that amount of population without enough energy and minerals?

Drake equation doesn't take that into account so I think life would simply be limited due to lack of resources even with the required technology to travel distance to habitable planets in range.
 
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Apr 19, 2021
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I see but, none of the factors in drake's equation are unknown variables but rather estimations based on our ability to recognize them.

Energy and minerals are not unknown variables either, they are there somewhere we know it and can detect some of them, but is again it's an estimation.

I wouldn't call them "guesses" either because a guess should assume at least one completely unknown variable , which is not the cause, or at least the equation should be "unsolvable" such that it makes the result not possible to calculate.

The only guess or unknown variable here is the alien life itself, because we didn't yet detect it, but that's on another part of equation, that's the result of equation so it does not affect the result right? :)

For example according to wikipedia:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible
N does not affect the result, N is the result however uncertain it may be.

But, since the result is based on estimation, to make it more accurate and sensible it should include the probability which it does not, so IMO that's reason No. 2 why drakes equation isn't reliable.

Drakes equation is good starting point but should be improved.
 
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Catastrophe

Approaching asteroid? Is this THE one?
Feb 18, 2020
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That is your opinion. Fine.

"Drakes equation is good a starting point but could be improved." My version.

As I am sure you know, an identity (or equation) is only as good as its weakest link. I was going to quote just this:
"N does not affect the result, N is the result however uncertain it may be."

I do not accept that other items are known but, no matter, your opinion is more than enough for me: however uncertain it may be.
I would suggest totally unknown, rather than uncertain, so I will opt for the certainty = 0 end.

Anyway, I am not going to, and have no wish to, persuade you, and you are not going to persuade me so I suggest we "leave well alone".

There never was a good war, or a bad peace
 

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