How long will the rovers last?

[phaze]

Another 18 months?<br /><br />I realize something could happen tomorrow and that's that... but what's a best-case scenario?<br /><br />Any chance the first human on Mars strolls over (maybe brushes off some dust) and waves to Earth through one of these guys?

 

[najab]

><i>I realize something could happen tomorrow and that's that... but what's a best-case scenario? </i><p>They passed the 'best-case' about 6 months ago! Remember, the mission-success requirement was 90-days. When 90-days came and went, Squires et al said "Maybe September [2004] if we're lucky" - we're <b>way</b> beyond what the engineers had expected and the Rovers are still going fairly strong.<p>I'm figuring/guessing/hoping at least to the end of the Martian year.</p></p>

 

[grooble]

Why do you think they got their estimates so wrong?<br /><br />Is the solar power better than expected?

 

[nacnud]

<font color="yellow">Is the solar power better than expected?</font><br /><br />Yup, much better, some seems to have cleaned the pannels.

 

[heyscottie]

Another reason the estimates are so wrong as that we engineers will always estimate conservatively. We want it to perform better than we promise it is going to. Then managers come along, and lop 10% off of our numbers, and then some big systems guy comes along, and puts everybody's numbers together, and takes something off the top of that, etc.<br /><br />In short, the rovers were always capable of more than their "advertised" abilties. After all, if NASA had claimed they'd be available for a year, and they died in six months, then we'd have a mission failure! If NASA claimed they'd be around for 3 months, and they died in six months, then we'd have mission success!<br /><br />Having said that, however, I think we've also had some very good luck with both of them, such as solar panel cleaning events, and just general good health. Add to that the excellent people working at control of these rovers, and you've got a good formula. Remember that the rovers have not been without problems -- we had the system shutdown when they filled up too much of the Flash memory, we've had a balky wheel on Spirit, a power leak on Opportunity, instruments getting older, etc. But the very flexible architecture designed in by engineers and the problem solving abilities of the controllers have been able to overcome all of those problems.<br /><br />All hail to the engineers!<br />