Is there life out there? The existence of other technological species is highly likely

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Is there life out there? The existence of other technological species is highly likely

Is there life out there? The existence of other technological species is highly likely : Read more

 

[ChrisA]

The Drake equation would be usfull, but you have to also run the "error bars" or uncertainty through it. This way don't just get that there are 12,000 civiizations but rather "There are between zero and 12,000,000 civilizations". You need to put the 6-sigma error bars on all the numbers or the result is just a guess multiplied by another gues and by another and so on.

SETI is a more direct way to estimate the number. So far SETI is saying the civilizations that use radio are at most, very rare.

Another way to estimate is to "sample" Earth over the last 1.2 trillion days. Over all those days, some billion of them had no life at all, the largest group had only bacteria-like life. Eukoriotic cells existed for some billions of days and technological like (with radio) existed for some 400,000 out of those 1.2 trillion days

If we assume (optimistically) that Earth is typical then 400,000 out of 1.2 trillion planets will have radio technology.

Beinbg even more optimistic, we can explain the fact that we don't detect these radios is because a more advanced civilization would not waste energy be radiating it to space like we do. The most advanced civilizations would look "dark" and be invisible because all visible light is a waste of energy

Even on Earth technological life ios very rare haveing been present only about 400,000 days out of the trillions of days the Earth has existed.

 

[ZenGalacticore]

While we may be the only technological species in the Milky Way Galaxy, or perhaps one among a handful, I would dare not presume that we're the only one in the entire Universe!

Life itself is probably fairly common, but relatively rare. I know that sounds like a contradiction, but let me explain:

Life itself, as we know it and don't know it, is probably fairly common. Bacteria, algae, viruses, 'green slime' and other micro-organisms may be prolific. But big animals, like dinosaurs, reptiles, birds and mammals may be comparatively rare.

And intelligent creatures like dolphins, elephants, octupuses, crows, parrots and owls, cats and dogs, may be even more rare. And intelligent creatures like humans, who can build spacecraft, radio telescopes and toasters, may be EXTREMELY rarer still!

But even if there are, "12,000" technical civs in our Galaxy alone, we are unlikely to ever make physical contact with them, or they with us. We all will forever be separated by vast distances of space, and epochs of time.

-- Zen Galacticore

 

[AboveAndBeyond]

The article isn't very good at making a case that "the existence of other technological species is highly likely". Sure, the probablity is not exactly zero, but how much bigger than that is not known.

 

[cacarr]

It's near certain they do not exist in our galaxy. And highly unlikely they exist in the Local Group.

Any other extant technological intelligence that's anywhere near us is extremely likely to be far older than us. If an 800-million-year-old tech civ existed in our galaxy, we likely would not exist, as they would have paved over the whole galaxy, so to speak, long before hominins evolved.

Technological civilizations are almost certainly very, very far away.

 

[MikeNTxs]

It's near certain they do not exist in our galaxy. And highly unlikely they exist in the Local Group.

Any other extant technological intelligence that's anywhere near us is extremely likely to be far older than us. If an 800-million-year-old tech civ existed in our galaxy, we likely would not exist, as they would have paved over the whole galaxy, so to speak, long before hominins evolved.

Technological civilizations are almost certainly very, very far away.

It's far from certain that any other civilizations in our galaxy are far advanced from us. We may be the first or among the first, and here's why I think so.

The Universe is estimated to be about 13.5 billion years old. Our solar system and planet have existed for about a third of that time (~4.5 billion years).

Life is believed to have existed here for about 3.5 billion years, and the Cambrian Explosion occurred a "mere" 540 million years ago, eventually leading to homo sapiens about 350 thousand years ago.

If that timeline is anywhere near typical of technological civilizations, there may not have been much time for other technological civilizations to develop before us.

Then consider that there could be vast numbers of "technological" civilizations, but how advanced might they be? Some may not advance beyond the neolithic or early metal age. They may not advance past mid-19th century technology.

And consider that the geophysical environments of planets may differ vastly depending on the metallicity of their star and the planetary nebula it birthed.

The fractions of metals in the upper and accessible crust could vary dramatically from one planet to another. Beings could be highly intelligent but live in environments that are simply not conducive to much technology simply because the materials are not readily available for discovery and access.

A planet's gravity or atmosphere may also be limiting (or conducive) factors.

So, even if we are not the first technological civilization to develop, we may still be the most advanced.

So far.

 

[George²]

If a civilization were just 1,000 years ahead of us and had developed at the same speed rate, its capabilities would seem like magic to us.