Post your most *pessimistic* predictions for manned space

[j05h]

<i>> Mass psychosis grips the astronaut corps. Early signs of this psychosis ...</i><br /><br />Anvel, you win the prize. That is easily the most pessimistic prediction. Even moreso than Silylene's with the Bees - your's appears to include no future spaceflight after next summer.<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[solarspot]

I wanna see if I can top silylene's post for pessimism...<br /><br />2007 - 2040<br /> />VSE is cancelled, motion supported by both Republicans and Democrats. America takes a sigh of relief it's gone.<br /> />NASA uses the Ares I / Orion to support the ISS to 2021.<br /> />USAF takes over ISS from NASA & kicks out all other members... uses ISS as orbital reconnisance and bombing platform against [insert nation]<br /> />China shoots down ISS. USAF is infuriated at the loss of 5 person crew.<br /><br />2040 - 2090<br /> />World War III breaks out. Nuclear warfare wipes out 71.4% of the human population.<br /> />World decends into anarchy, with last nuclear warheads being detonated by Cults and Extremist groups. Global population falls to 200 million.<br /> />Major plague wipes out 179 million, with 4 million more dying of starvation.<br /><br />2090 - 2887<br /> />Written communication nonexistant.<br /> />Humans live in a hunter-gatherer society.<br /> />no language known to more than 2-300 people.<br /> />Religion is the only accepted justification for decisions.<br /> />Math has decended to nothing more than addition & subtraction.<br /><br />2888<br /> />asteroid 1950DA hits earth, causing mass extinction on Earth, humanity included.<br /><br />{3 million years later}<br /><br />37914 - 37930 NG.<br /> />First dolphin to land on the Moon. Landed by the Republic of the North Atlantic.<br /> />Colony of eventually 200 dolphins established on lunar surface. <br /><br />37931 - 37948 NG.<br /> />Remains of lunar landing found with mysterious markings on sertain pieces of metal and extremely strange oval-like imprints in the dust. Rumours fly of ancient lunar civilizations or ancient alien visits to the Moon.<br /> />Archeologists point out that one prehistoric species, humanity, may have had sufficient brain capacity to pull off a lunar landing of this nature, and that the remains of the landing may indeed have survived 4 million years since the species's extinction.<br />&g

 

[spacefire]

no need to post in this thread anymore. It's already happening <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /><br /><br />NASA sabotaged and shamed.<br /><br />Fatal Explosion at Scaled.<br /><br /><br /><br />big bummers. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[arkady]

60km diameter asteroid hits earth, and whats left of humanity descends into chaos for a few hundred years before finally going extinct. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "<font color="#0000ff"><em>The choice is the Universe, or nothing</em> ... </font>" - H.G Wells </div>

 

[spacefire]

not in my book:<br /><br /><br />|<br />|<br />|<br />V <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

Solarspot, you outdid me with a scenario even more pessimistic than mine. You kill off and devolve not just one species (man), but two! (also dolphins). YIKES!<br /><br />But I think the closer the scenario is to something familiar to us, especially something that you fear, the scarier it becomes. So when I built my scenario, I intentionally played it close to our unspoken and secret concerns and prejudices, hoping that I could make it feel chilly. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[ctrlaltdel]

I'm a pessimistic person by nature, so i've never given much hope to the near term growth of spaceflight. Here's what I think may be semiplausible:<br />Funding is never granted for Ares V, and the US is stuck with Ares I for many decades. Orion performs ISS missions till the end of the station's lifetime. By the time it deorbits the political climate for space travel will beome so frosty there is serious talk of finishing off manned spaceflight altogether. The average age of aeronautical engineers in the US is over 60. NASA's role is further and further reduced by a congress that uses it as a political football, all the while slowly strangling its funding.<br />Whilst this is happening Russia's economy is taking a downturn because it's exhausted it's oil fields, and their government never diversified their economy to cope. Coupled with depopulation and rising corruption, their manned space program is abandonned due to lack of funding. Satelite launches continue on though, because soyuz rockets are still very cheap, so there is a market demand.<br />China, seeing the rest of the world abandon manned spaceflight, see's no point in continuing it's program who's support was mainly justified because they want to show the world they can match other countries technical prowess.<br />Europe does what it always did; launch satelites, albeit at a reduced rate because the EU refuses to subsidise it to the level it once did.<br />Somewhere between 2030 and 2040, the era of manned space travel comes to an end. Rockets will always be of use in order to provide meteorological and communications satelites, with the occasional science probe.<br />Meanwhile, towards the end of the 21st century other technological fields will race ahead: computers continue to make astonishing leaps in power and intelligence (but not achieving strong AI yet) Medicine will advance to the point where bionic limbs are possible and genetics will play an ever larger role in treating humans.<br />A lot of people a

 

[para3]

NASA will lose another space shuttle before the shuttle program ends.<br /><br />We will never set foot on Mars. NEVER-though I see footsteps on the moon again. <br /><br />I never give dates either, because I never know when something will occur. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong><font size="3" color="#99cc00">.....Shuttle me up before I get tooooooooo old and feeble.....</font></strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong><font size="4" color="#ff6600">---Happiness is winning a huge lottery--- </font></strong></p> </div>

 

[nuaetius]

2007<br />-ESA launches the ATV to the International space station. During docking there is a flight control error and the ATV strikes the station. No lose of life, but the station looses power and pressurization and must be abandoned.<br /> -At Xprize Cup (Which has triple the attendance of last year) New Sheppard wins 1st place in the Level 1 and Armadillo Aerospace wins second prize. The final competitor looses control of their rocket and it crashes into the stands killing 15 and injuring 70.<br />-Falcon 1 on its 3rd launch delivers it’s cargo to orbit 10x10. <br /><br />2008<br />-Shuttle returns to the abandoned ISS with a back up Shuttle on the pad in case of an accident. The ISS is depressurized, unpowered, and spinning on all 3 Axis. The Shuttle completes the most complicated docking procedure ever accomplished in space and brings back up power and pressurization on the ISS, but the Zvezda module is damaged beyond repair the ISS must again be abandoned because this module contains the only restroom and most the living quarters. Bush gives all the Astronauts involved a Metal and because this mission could not be completed by a Capsule the Orion Capsule is scraped and Bush calls for the continuation of the shuttle program through 2020.<br />-SpaceX launches the 1st Falcon 9/Dragon Capsule, which looses 2 of the 9 engines and the Capsule only orbits 7 times before reentry in Rural China, no one dies but due to international pressure COTS is cancelled and SpaceX’s intellectual properties are bought by ULA. The Falcons are renamed and retooled and ULA offers them as discount rockets to compete with the Soyuz off the Sea Launch Platform.<br /><br />-The 2nd Shuttle to be launched in 2008 has a partial engine failure and a Transatlantic Abort is attempted. The Shuttle fails to reach Europe and crashes into the Atlantic, no survivors.<br /> <br />2009<br />-President Clinton is sworn into office, during her inaugural speech she spends a full 10 minutes deriding the

 

[frodo1008]

Why be so damn optimistic! This thread was supposed to be somewhat pessimistic!<br /><br />Why not something like: Late 2007, Unknown comet discovered heading directly for the Earth, but such news withheld from public to avoid panic. Comet is estimated to be some 10 miles in diameter.<br /><br />Early 2008: Comet strikes Atlantic Ocean, and tsunami waves more than 3,000 feet high race around the Earth, human civilization is crushed, and even human life becomes very difficult.<br /><br />2009: Humanity wiped out by truly vast winter conditions as a new ice age begins!<br /><br />I mean, if you are going to be pessimistic then BE pessimistic!!!<br /><br />

 

[silylene old]

Nuateus, I thought that was a great start at a detailed pessimistic future. Please include some 'fiction' and take this pessimistic scenario out a century. I am curious how bad you can make it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[silylene old]

ctratdel: So you have a pessimitic future in which we reach a point of an oil-starved future of stasis, with no manned launches. I think you need to add a few more disasters to make it worse. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[kurtwagner]

[2014] Ares I visits ISS. Cargo deliveries by ATV and Soyuz have kept ISS alive but it is not being expanded.<br />[2020] Gigantic solar event sends disruptive pulse which, 8.4 minutes later smacks into the Earth's magnetic field. This causes a reversal of polarity which destroys all electrical and computer devices. Through some quirk of field physics or literary license, the ISS is spared. With ATV, Soyuz, and Ares all docked, it is well supplied. Regenerative environmental systems give it a 1-year consumables margin. Below, the Earth is reduced to chaos. Urban areas quickly become uninhabitable. Lack of transportation (vehicular traffic ceases to exist), electricity, and utilities spawns a horrible sequence of violence, mercenary survivalism, and panic. Millions die. Disease, thirst, and starvation stalk the developed world. Pockets of life remain. Primitive peoples are affected as hardy groups of people fan out into the wilderness, knowing that they must live off the land.<br />[2020 - later that day, onboard ISS] Crew, unable to communicate with any ground station is baffled. Instruments have been affected by the magnetic anomaly and crewmember Abebe Kebede posits the field reversal and resultant complete destruction of electrical systems on Earth. The crew discusses its options.<br />[2020 - later that evening] Starship Sulosst 5, of the Omnos Federation, interrupts its routine exploratory mission as its intruments detect the strong magnetic anomaly radiating from a distant point. They focus on the area and receive imagery and data. Their instruments show that the third planet sustains a liquid water environment, so they set course in that direction to investigate....<br />[2020 - the next morning] First contact. Too bad we're busy shooting the neigbors for a can of beans to give a crap. ISS crew gets to explain to ETs that "well, until a few days ago we were doing pretty well!"

 

[themanwithoutapast]

Ok, I am thinking about some pessimistic things:<br /><br />2008: The third Return to Flight SeaLaunch Zenit3 launched explodes before first stage separation due to a manufacturing problem in one of its main engines. SeaLaunch announces the stop of its orbital operations from the Pacific to fully concentrate on its land-launched Zenit3.<br /><br />2008: Shenzhou-7 is delayed to 2009, China cancels CZ-5 program due to budget constraints after economic disturbances in summer of 2008 that shook up the Chinese stock markets.<br /><br />2008: After several delays, STS-125 takes off in November for an HST servicing mission. Two separate unplanned space-walks are not enought to fully install all new gyroscopes. Engineers are unsure whether HST after servicing will last far beyond 2010.<br /><br />2009: First Falcon IX launched in March. Falcon goes off-course after T+3:20, terminal engine-shut down engaged, vehicle disintegrates during suborbital return.<br /><br />2009: RpK announces solvency issues, files for bankruptcy in April due to COTS money stopped in 2008. <br /><br />2009: ESA announces delay of ExoMars to 2015.<br /><br />2010: STS-130 expierences problems during ascent, abort to orbit is initiated, no possibiliy to reach ISS. Mission returns 3 days after launch. STS-131, 132 and 133 cancelled.<br /><br />2010: Ariane 5 ATV malfunction on pad, explosion destroying much of Ariane 5 pad. 8-month repair necessary. <br /><br />2010: Shenzhou-8 and 9 unable to dock in orbit. Mission Shenzhou-10 delayed without specific date.<br /><br />2010: Japan announces end of its ISS partnership at the end of 2014 due to budget contraints.<br /><br />2011: NASA announces further dealy in Ares-1 and CEV timetable. First flight only at the end of 2015 possible.<br /><br />2011: Due to budget constraints, HST program ends.<br /><br />2011: One astronaut severally insured due to fire in Destiny lab. Return to Earth by 3 crewmembers leaving ISS crew of 3 on board.<br /><br />Ok, that's it with moderate negativi

 

[spacefire]

<font color="yellow">[2020 - the next morning] First contact. Too bad we're busy shooting the neigbors for a can of beans to give a crap. ISS crew gets to explain to ETs that "well, until a few days ago we were doing pretty well!"</font><br /><br /><br />wait, no Borg!??!!?!? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[chyten]

I am surprised at the unnecessary complexity of most posts on this thread. The MOST pessimistic scenario is very simple -- global nuclear war starts tomorrow, and we all die. You can't get any more pessimistic than that. It is also trivial.<br /><br />The "most optimistic prediction" thread is much more interesting -- as long as your prediction is plausible and well-reasoned.

 

[nuaetius]

The reason you see such optimistic "most pessimistic" ideas for the future is space is just dang hard to work in, and if you get too pessimistic there is no space future. We have been at this civilized society thing for over 3000 years and only in the last 60 have we been space faring in the most limited since. So in essence if anything significantly bad happens in the world space will stop instantly. Think of it this way it took 3 generations for Europe to recover after the end of the Dark Ages. But just for the fun here is a list of show stoppers.<br /><br />WWIII<br />Airborne AIDS<br />Release of Bio-Weapons<br />Our Magnetic poles flip again<br />Ice age<br />Venus style Global Warming<br />Chinese economy collapses<br />American economy collapses<br />Asteroid impact<br />Fission Experiment goes wrong and opens a worm hole<br />Alien invasion<br />Godzilla<br />Second Coming of Jesus (Muslim or Christian)<br />Earth finally falls off the back of that turtle<br />General blight of all trees in the world<br /><br />All the things mentioned before and everything I listed are show stoppers, but most have nothing to do with space and would be general "Who can be the most pessimistic period" ideas. I am trying to stay with things that are generally bad for space, but not so bad for society in general.<br /><br />Personally the the airborne AIDS idea gives me the willies... wish I hadn't came up with that one.<br /><br /><br /><br />

 

[larper]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Personally the the airborne AIDS idea gives me the willies... wish I hadn't came up with that one. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />Nah. The Second Coming is the real terror scenario. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong><font color="#ff0000">Vote </font><font color="#3366ff">Libertarian</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[3488]

General blight of all trees in the world , sounds a bit like The Death of Grass, written by John Christopher.<br /><br />All species of grass die out, rice, corn, wheat, barley, oats, etc, every one, not just <br />your lawn grass. <br /><br />Pretty scary.<br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>

 

[spacefire]

<font color="yellow">Second Coming of Jesus (Muslim or Christian) </font><br /><br />I would think Jesus would push for space exploration in hopes of converting other species to Christianity, also He might know how to do it properly? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>