Post your most *pessimistic* predictions for manned space

[spacefire]

Here's mine: SpaceX goes out of business, the Moon base never materializes and the CEV and Soyuz are used for ISS travel and after the ISS is finally scuttled for short orbital jaunts to small Salyut-like space stations.<br />Space tourism remains suborbital.<br />In 2100 a private entity starts rocketing material to Mars. It acquires the rights to 200 froze embryos who are sent to Mars and placed in incubators. The infants are cared for by machines and taught by humans via video mail.<br />This method (akin to plants sending spores) is used for the colonization of the solar system and beyond. No 'born' human ever travels between planets or stars. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[lampblack]

When I put on my pessimism hat, I find myself imagining problems cropping up with spaceship earth.<br /><br />We could get walloped by a 50-mile-wide asteroid tomorrow, resulting in the deaths of any and all creatures that have evolved beyond the level of cockroach.<br /><br />The spaceship would sail on -- and the passenger list would be somewhat diminished. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#0000ff"><strong>Just tell the truth and let the chips fall...</strong></font> </div>

 

[kelvinzero]

I agree, but you could give the same answer to the question 'what is your most pessimistic prediction for the weather this weekend' <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />Myself I am optimistic in my pessimism. Barring extinction we will eventually populate not only the solar system but the galaxy, given only technology Im sure will be mastered, such as genetics, biospheres and/or ISRU.. However to avoid sounding like lunatics, perhaps it would be more useful to discuss the minimum we should expect to achieve in the next hundred years? <br /><br />This could grow into a conversation more relevant to space business.

 

[josh_simonson]

Following a nuclear holocaust the inhabitants of ISS have the distinction of being the last humans alive for a few months...<br /><br />You said MOST pessimistic....

 

[pberrett]

Paris Hilton buys a ticket and becomes the next space tourist aboard the ISS.<br /><br />Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!<br /><br />cheers Peter

 

[ckikilwai]

"Paris Hilton buys a ticket and becomes the next space tourist aboard the ISS.<br /><br />Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!"<br /><br />LOL <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" />

 

[steve70]

I tend to be an optimist but here goes. I think a political war of wills kills manned spaceflight for the foreseeable future. Suborbital tourism will remain suborbital until it becomes "routine" then the public losses interest and the businesses loss their shirts.<br /><br />I hate being pessimistic <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" />

 

[holmec]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>Here's mine: SpaceX goes out of business, the Moon base never materializes and the CEV and Soyuz are used for ISS travel and after the ISS is finally scuttled for short orbital jaunts to small Salyut-like space stations.<br />Space tourism remains suborbital. <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />You call this pesimistic? how about an asteroid hits and kills all life on earth leaving the ISS crew to attempt to survive with little to no hope. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[holmec]

WOW!<br /><br />That's too much, but I wouldn't put it passed her. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Bigelow puts a station in orbit & it does not get utilized for anything except a couple of orbital jaunts by billionaires & then is de-orbited after a couple of years with no others placed in orbit.<br /> Bigelow then goes out of business. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[holmec]

Or how about. <br /><br />New Space fails miserably, ESAS goes in to political limbo, RSA's Soyuz stops for lack of funding, Shuttle program is decommissioned, and the Chinese go to the moon and Mars, and sell our children little Chinese space ships. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Due to political fumbling NASA is cut to the bone & can only conduct unmanned science missions.<br /> Alt Space/Private Industry sends a scout mission to Mars with the intent to settle on a location for colonization. <br />Everyone on board dies for unknown reasons & further missions are forbidden by government decree. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

At least the little space ships will be dirt cheap <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <br /><br />And on sale at Wal-Mart. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[spacefire]

lety's not go overboard with the asteroids or catastrophes and just focus on basic economics or politcal rweasons why things should fail.<br /><br />I think the Chinese going to the Moon and Mars is not pessimistic for the future of the human race as a hole, they breed fast and would be all over the universe soon <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[steve82]

Given our recent delay of several months due to a hail storm I don't think it's overboard to worry about a something like a major hurricane wiping out the Michoud facility during a major phase of CEV production leading to a 6 year delay between the end of the shuttle program and the first manned CEV flight.

 

[holmec]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I think the Chinese going to the Moon and Mars is not pessimistic for the future of the human race as a hole, they breed fast and would be all over the universe soon <p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />So you think Communist moon and mars is a good thing? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[h2ouniverse]

How Mankind will finally reach Mars and live in a sustainable colony there:<br /><br />2012: Sandi Thom is elected US president<br />2022: In the West, the Simple-Life party comes to power in most nations, issuing laws prohibiting envisioning unrealistic views of a complex intelligent future of mankind such as cyborgs, biotech, data processing, well-funded research. <br />2028: President-elect Hilton declares: "We won a big victory with our slogan "Happiness lies in Dumbness"; Believe my vast experience of life, the only way to be happy is to be dumb. We should admire amoebia, not dolphins"<br />2031: The Simplistic Revolution in China: hundreds of millions uncloath in glee, destroy all rice fields and launch pads and run naked in nature; The few ones surviving famine sing in chorus "How happy we are!"<br />2044: President Peaceful-Flower-in-the-Wind declares: "Thou shallst remain humble. Do not dare to think. For Goddess Gaia will punish you for your arrogance. Do not dare envision that you can change what she plans, or you do not deserve Her gift of Life"<br />2056: The Gaian Union of the Tribes of the Planet enforces the death penalty for any person with an IQ larger than 70.<br />2078: President Umf-umf declares: "Grwmf, guh?"<br />112738: The Almighty Queen of Queens declares: "I, your leader, hereby authorizes the launch of Spaceship StarHive towards the red planet. We have there 100 billions of our citizens. For their entrertainment, we added few animals like those funny hairless apes "Homo" in their cage. This will be a day remembered in the history of the bee species".

 

[spacefire]

of course it's not a good thing, but it's still manned space exploration <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.com</p><p>http://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </p><p> </p> </div>

 

[kosmonavtkaa]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>So you think Communist moon and mars is a good thing?<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />China are Communist in name only... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[kosmonavtkaa]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>...how about an asteroid hits and kills all life on earth leaving the ISS crew to attempt to survive with little to no hope.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Opening scene of <i>Inside the Space Station</i> <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> : <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[kelvinzero]

What is really depressing is that an episode of "The Simple Life" beamed down from the ISS would probably do more to promote space than discovering lichens on mars.

 

[gunsandrockets]

Most pessimistic?<br /><br />The new president in 2009 kills the VSE. Manned missions are only to ISS. America, Russia and China limit themselves to keeping the creaky ISS going for decades.<br /><br />An early fatal accident kills investor interest in suborbital space tourism, and reaction in America effectively outlaws private space efforts due to excessive regulation.

 

[holmec]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>China are Communist in name only...<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />Not so....try to tell that to the victims of China's cultural revolutions, tell that to Tineman square victims.<br /><br />*Appeasement all over again* <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[holmec]

It was really a tongue and cheek comment. Just the idea the rest of the world would fail at manned space and China would succeed and claim glory and sell toys to our children.... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#0000ff"><em>"SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off</em></font></p> </div>

 

[no_way]

most pessimistic : taxpayer dollars spent around the world by various *SAs will continue to have little to no impact on actual progress in space flight.<br />government overregulations put the brakes on fast development of private spaceflight industry, and i wont get to orbit in my lifetime.<br /><br />the rest of the development will inevitably follow the natural laws of progress and natural selection ( poorly run and unlucky companies go out of the business, more succesful and new startups replace them )<br />