Post your most pessimistic predictions for manned space

silylene old · Jun 17, 2007

2007 - 2015 - Next space shuttle is destroyed, along with a key module destined for ISS. - ISS is abandoned because of Russian computer problems, onboard oxygen generator fire, astronaut illness, and high cost. - Hubble fails completely. Doesn't matter, Congress is too scared to let another shuttle fly to fix it. - Ares is scuttled because costs just keep inflating every year, like the Boston Big Dig. - MSL overshoots Mars and is lost because of a metric unit conversion problem (sound familar?) - Avian flu epidemic kills about 20% of the world's population. Especially hard hit is Asia. China stops all space science for a decade as it attempts to recover. - genetically engineered bacteria designed for oil spill cleanup somehow gets into the Saudi oil fields and begins to destroy the underground reserves. 2016-2025 - US hit by another horrible 9/11 type terrorist incident. Economic depression follows. "Patriot Act 3" is passed on President's urging by Congress, draconian reduction of freedom begins. Legal immigration is essentially banned. WIth lack of foreign students, and American students having no interest in science or engineering, over 75% of US univeristy science and engineering programs close, forever. - terrorist strike destroy's NASA's computer servers, almost all blueprints and past mission data is forever lost. Damage is irreplaceable, says NASA chief. - Almost all of NASA's experienced engineers have retired by now. Science and engineering shortage dooms future NASA capability. - Europe is heavily spending on repairing the economies of its again expanded EU (now includes Turkey, Russia, and the "Stans"). Ceases all space science investment. - China invades Taiwan. No one cares. - Worldwide oil shortage worsens greatly. Pollution from over 750 newly constructed coal-fired power plants in China and India sicken millions. - Russian reactor in Slovenia melts down and spreads a radio <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function. </div> </div>

radarredux · Jun 17, 2007

> China are Communist in name only.../i> China is certainly an interesting creature; they are some of the most entrepreneurial people on the planet right now. I think we need to redefine "communism", redefine China's government, or both.

holmec · Jun 17, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />China is certainly an interesting creature; they are some of the most entrepreneurial people on the planet right now. I think we need to redefine "communism", redefine China's government, or both.<hr /></blockquote> Oh. Watch out for the red sleeping dragon! It bites. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off </div>

ckikilwai · Jun 17, 2007

People in China have already the right posses, so it's indeed hard to call it a communist regime. My pessimistic prediction is that China and the US get into a war by a stupid incident like WW I started. The world economy collapses and war rages over the planet for hundreds of years. Manned space flight becomes something like the Greek myths of today and no one actually believes they have happened. After 2000 years space archeologist's are amazed when they find some kind of silver altars on the moon. It is believed that they were placed by an ancient people who built these in honor for their moongod "Kannady". <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

holmec · Jun 17, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />People in China have already the right posses, so it's indeed hard to call it a communist regime. My pessimistic prediction is that China and the US get into a war by a stupid incident like WW I started. <hr /></blockquote> Its a shame history is forgotten here. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off </div>

derekmcd · Jun 17, 2007

Yikes!!! That sounds almost, too plausible. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div> </div> <div>"If something's hard to do, then it's not worth doing." - Homer Simpson</div> </div>

qso1 · Jun 18, 2007

Yours is very close to what I was going to post. You beat me to it. The only difference, the ISS is abandoned, de-orbited less than a decade after shuttle is retired. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

spacefire · Jun 18, 2007

stylene, you scare me...you should write a book though <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

3488 · Jun 18, 2007

Silylene scares me too!!!. Absolute brilliant post though. Silylene's post should be made into a film. It would be an absolute thriller!! Has anyone seen 28 Days Later, 28 Weeks later, Soylent Green or Children of Men??? Silylene's post is in the same league as those apocalyptic thrillers. The rise of radical Islam in the west does worry me. Even decent hard working law abiding moderate Muslims (99.9% of all Muslims) are being victimised by the extremist lunatic fringe (those who wish harm are a tiny minority thank goodness). Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

holmec · Jun 18, 2007

My wife's view is that women find a way to make a home on the moon and order's the men around that come visit. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off </div>

holmec · Jun 18, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />I saw that happen in the 60's. Had the Soviet Union never launched Sputnick, I'm not so sure we would have been to the Moon, yet. Forget about Aries/Orion, the CEV or anything else. Unless something *pushes* our complacent tails, they will never be more than political hot - potatos given some lip service, but little else. <hr /></blockquote> It wasn't because of Nazism that we have rockets, And so its not because of Communism that we had Sputnik. Sputnik was because Sergei Korolev (the Russian Rocket guy) who got Kruchev interested in Sputnik. Otherwise Politicians would have never done it, they were only looking at the rocket as a means to deliver the atomic bomb. Its not political ideology that gets thing started or done, its people with dreams and means. Other than prestige I can't think of any reason why China wants to go to the moon. Communist Russia did not achive it and stopped pursuing it. Communist governments do not have their peoples best interest in mind, so will not pursue it for science. Totalitarian Governments like Naziism, Facism, Communism, abuse science but tend to expand it less than a free society. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "SCE to AUX" - John Aaron, curiosity pays off </div>

chyten · Jun 18, 2007

After 2000 years space archeologist's are amazed when they find some kind of silver altars on the moon. It is believed that they were placed by an ancient people who built these in honor for their moongod "Kannady". The name engraved on Apollo plaques on the Moon is "Nixon", not "Kennedy". It is entirely possible that Richard Nixon's name will outlive the human race.

Aetius · Jun 18, 2007

I thought the Futurama episode where Dick Nixon's head survives into the 30th century, acquires a giant fighting robot body, and becomes President Of Earth, was a pretty pessimistic future. But the idea of Nixon's very name outliving the human race definitely tops that. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> And why are so many jerks in the political world named Dick?

MeteorWayne · Jun 18, 2007

{shudder} <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

no_way · Jun 19, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />Silylene's post should be made into a film. <hr /></blockquote> It was. Its in a movie at the opening of PC game "Alpha Centauri", or by all accounts very similar. Of course, there is that little offshoot depicted there that humans, throughout all this mayhem, managed to send off a colony ship enroute to Centauri. Which somewhat unfortunately for humanity, but to great delight of the gamer, breaks up on entry to target planet atmoshphere and different factions present on ship get to start over with the whole humanity thing pretty much from scratch.

ckikilwai · Jun 19, 2007

"The name engraved on Apollo plaques on the Moon is "Nixon", not "Kennedy". It is entirely possible that Richard Nixon's name will outlive the human race." <img src="/images/icons/shocked.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/shocked.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/shocked.gif" /> Who the hell came up with the idea to do that! Why didn't they put Kennedy's name (at least also) on it?

MeteorWayne · Jun 19, 2007

Hey, when you're the boss, you get to choose. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

earth_bound_misfit · Jun 19, 2007

"We could get walloped by a 50-mile-wide asteroid tomorrow, resulting in the deaths of any and all creatures that have evolved beyond the level of cockroach." I think we will all bash ourselves back to the pre stone age before that happens. <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ----------------------------------------------------------------- Wanna see this site looking like the old SDC uplink?Go here to see how: SDC Eye saver </div>

spacefire · Jun 19, 2007

I think we'd get some warning if something THAT big were coming. hopefully enough warning to cobble together an Orion and knock it off course. It's kind of nice to know that in areally desperate situation we have that option. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> http://asteroid-invasion.blogspot.comhttp://www.solvengineer.com/asteroid-invasion.html </div>

chyten · Jun 20, 2007

As to why China would want to go to the Moon, other than "prestige"...maybe they have more vision than we do. Maybe they know the natural wealth of the solar system better than we do. OTOH, maybe they don't. Sorry, but I never saw any concrete evidence that Chinese government has much in the way of great visions. No more than any 19th Century authoritarian power -- which China now resembles more than anything else, being Communist in name only. Often-expressed on this forum yearning for a new space race with China (or even for Chinese Solar System) strike me as wishful thinking. Also, it does not endear a person in my eyes when he wishes for existence of a powerful dictatorship -- let alone for a triumph of such dictatorship.

johns805 · Jun 21, 2007

"And why are so many jerks in the political world named Dick?" Er, because they are.....Dicks? <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />! ~J

johns805 · Jun 21, 2007

Hi: Here's mine. Astronomers by happenstance discover a swarm of large planet killing asteroids heading toward Earth only five years out. World leaders and politicians endlessly squabble with each other over what to do. Fistfights break out at the U.N. between hordes of hot headed members and their respective staffs on the floor of the General Assembly. Religious leaders claim it is the will of God, Allah or just darn plain 'ol karma and the prophesy of the end times is coming true...Ann Coulter finds a way to take over all television programming and puts her endless rants on a continuous loop 24/7 on all channels....Should I stop now?....

! ~JBK

no_way · Jun 21, 2007

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />The best that will ever achieve is maybe a few suborbital flights until something goes "Boom!!!" , and that will end, too. There's just not enough instant profits to catch on<hr /></blockquote> i know its supposed to be the pessimistic thread, but this just begs for the link: http://ronpartin.com/free_stuff/predictions.html

ckikilwai · Jun 22, 2007

These predictions were really really wrong <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> "They just don't have the right stuff. " [Upon turning down the Beatles for a recording contract.] - Decca Records executive" ""People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." [commenting on television] - Daryl F. Zanuck, Head of 20th Century Fox, 1946" <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" />

no_way · Jun 22, 2007

regarding "profits" on private space flight comment above, i think these fit in rather nicely: "The phonograph is not of any commercial value." - Thomas Edison, 1880 "While television may be theoretically feasible, commercially and financially I consider it an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming." Â· Le DeForest, American radio pioneer, 1926

Post your most *pessimistic* predictions for manned space

silylene old

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holmec

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