MeteorWayne":24b302gc said:
Sorry, but you seem to have been around as long as I have, so you should know. Fusion power has been 20 years away for 30 years now, and there is NO indication that any of the problems preventing it from being a useful power source are even close to being solved. In fact the lack of progress indicates that 20 years may be far too optimistic.
Whoopee, we dump in 14 GW and a fusion reaction occurs yielding 0.1 watt. That's progress?
Alright seriously: There is no indication that we're near, but that's a virtue of a few things (as far as I've seen and understand). The trend that's stopped fusion almost everytime up to date is unknown unknowns. Not predictable developments and challenges. So the researchers, not seeing anything on the road ahead, say "all clear" only to walk right into some complications. +20 years (a ballpark number) to schedule. In this respect the situation is that there's no predicting whether it'll work out, not that the unpredictability means it won't.
Then there's the fact that fusion research has almost entirely been of the Tokamak variety. This is a flawed "all eggs in one basket" path, but more importantly in this discussion it means that the perpetual "20 years" prediction is mostly 20 Tokamak years. There's been a number of alternatives researched over time, but Tokamak has had the lion's share of public attention and funding.
Now there's a few different research paths, and at least one of them has a very clear short term path to figuring out if it works or not. It's credible as such because the physics and engineering are much simpler, so that the project budget is literally orders of magnitude less than ITER. It isn't an engineering and theoretical labyrinth like ITER or LHC (cf insider comments that no single person knows how LHC works) - a dozen people are enough to research it, and altogether it might hit 1 billion $ cumulative to take it from the very beginning (incl a few wrong paths that might've saved years and millions had they had their eureka moment earlier, cf Bussard's Google talk) to the very final research phase: a 100MW demo reactor which is in design right now.
So, it's not any sort of guarantee that it's going to work, but the funding is minimal and manpower required tiny (no gravy train inertia) and the physics/engineering challenges simple so that it's only going to take 5 years tops (2 more years according to research lead) to see (not just theory but experimental evidence) if it's worth pursuing or not, compared to historical fusion standards largely set by Tokamak research.
Considering all this evidence, I think it's not unfair to say that we very well may be near to finally seeing useful fusion in the decade.
Just not from Tokamak. Either from Polywell or Focus Fusion or Laser Ignition or General Fusion, or another method. If e.g. Polywell had ITER's funding, it'd be a done deal. Or maybe not, if it had turned into a self-perpetuating bureaucrat and science byzantium like ITER.