Russia to send spacecraft to knock Apophis off course?

[Smersh]

I think this news is only a few hours old ...

MOSCOW – Russia is considering sending a spacecraft to a large asteroid to knock it off its path and prevent a possible collision with Earth, the head of the country's space agency said Wednesday.

Anatoly Perminov said the space agency will hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis, telling Golos Rossii radio that it would invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project once it is finalized ...

Full story: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091230/ap_ ... _encounter

If this is true, it sounds like quite an ambitious project to me, especially if it will involve NASA, the Chinese and others. Has MeteorWayne or anyone else here heard anything about this possiblity at all?

 

[cyclonebuster]

Russia May Send Spacecraft to Asteroid

Russia May Send Spacecraft to Asteroid

AP

Russia's space chief said Wednesday his agency will consider sending a spacecraft to a large asteroid to knock it off its path and prevent a possible collision with Earth.
MOSCOW — Russia is considering sending a spacecraft to a large asteroid to knock it off its path and prevent a possible collision with Earth, the head of the country's space agency said Wednesday.

Anatoly Perminov said the space agency will hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis, telling Golos Rossii radio that it would invite NASA, the European Space Agency, the Chinese space agency and others to join the project once it is finalized.

When the 885-foot asteroid was first discovered in 2004, astronomers estimated the chances of it smashing into Earth in its first flyby in 2029 were as high as 1-in-37, but have since lowered their estimate.
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2009/12/ ... -asteroid/

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Russia May Send Spacecraft to Asteroid

Well, since Apophis has almost no chance of hitting the earth (current odds of 2036 impact are 1 in 233,000, meaning there's a 99.99957% chance it will miss the earth), and is currently ranked 5th in impact risk, that's insane. It's also not paticularly large (~ 270 meters diameter) compared to many others. What if they screw up and increase the impact risk?

There's this later in the article...
"In October, NASA lowered the odds that Apophis could hit Earth in 2036 from a 1-in-45,000 as earlier thought to a 1-in-250,000 chance after researchers recalculated the asteroid's path. It said another close encounter in 2068 will involve a 1-in-330,000 chance of impact.

Without mentioning NASA findings, Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said.

I don't remember exactly, might hit by 2032? This guy is nuts!

Apophis is a Torino Scale 0 object:


No Hazard
(White Zone)
0
The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero.
Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.

 

[Fomalhautian]

Re: Russia May Send Spacecraft to Asteroid

What if they screw up and increase the impact risk?

LOL, that's what I was thinking...... if it ain't broke, right?

Plus, with their history regarding Mars and the couple rocket tests I've seen on Youtube lately, I'm just not sold on their accuracy yet.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Perhaps they have it coming closer than JPL says or what if they want to use it as a weapon of war and send it on top of us? All they got to say is OOPS! SORRY! our calculations were a little off! :lol:

 

[Solifugae]

So the odds are super low, but the argument has already been made that this is a good target practice exercise for when we do have an asteroid that poses a significant threat. What about that? That's one way of justifying this.

 

[Smersh]

If such a mission were to get underway, wouldn't it make sense to try to intercept the asteroid early, several years out from potential impact? I believe there's a theory I read somewhere a while back, that it may be possible to design a craft that could land on an asteroid and gently alter the course of its orbit by just a centimetre or two using thruster rockets of some kind I think. Only a very small course adjustment would be neccessary to make the difference over several years between a hit and a miss.

Of course, as MeteorWayne pointed out, there's still the chance the course could be changed incorrectly, so that it hits Earth instead of misses it, but if the lander is in place all that time, being monitored and controlled from Earth, further adjustments could be made over time, as the actual path of the orbit becomes clearer.

Might be a problem of fuel for the thrusters or whatever though, I suppose ...

 

[MeteorWayne]

OK, I need to post a link to the latest Apophis papers, which this dummy (the Russian guy) apparently hasn't heard of...
Gimme a few minutes, I'll either edit them into this post, or add a new one.

The significant point is that there is a 99.99957% chance it will miss earth. If you want to experiment with an asteroid, changing it's path, I agree, that's a necessary and good thing. We definately need to know how to do that. Such an experimental mission must be done, and soon. But to muck around with one that has a miniscule chance of hitting earth, is just asking for trouble.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Heck if we go through all that trouble why not just capture it in earths orbit and make it our second moon. That way we can go and study it whenever we want to.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Physics.

Sheesh, do you have any idea of how much energy would be required to do that?

Never mind, it's obvious the answer is no ....

If you want to run the numbers, the velocity is relative to earth is 5.87 km/sec. The mass is approximately 2.7 x 10^10 kg.

Let me know what you come up with as to how much propellant would be required.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Who cares how much? Why not use nuclear fuel?

 

[cyclonebuster]

Is it made of iron??

 

[MeteorWayne]

Who cares how much? Why not use nuclear fuel?

People planning a real mission, rather than just making stuff up care.

What is "nucleat fuel"? Is it supposed to be some kind of magic potion?

What kind of "nuclear fuel"? How much energy does it supply?

What were the results of your calculations to determine how much energy would be required to capture it into earth orbit? Can your magic "nuclear fuel" supply that amount of enrgy?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Is it made of iron??

Specral analysis has indicated it is an Sg (Stony) asteroid. Of course, it contains some iron, as all asteroids and meteorites do.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Updates from the current SDC article: (Pretty much what I said... )



American astronomer Paul Chodas, part of NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Program Office, said Wednesday that claims by a top Russian space official that the asteroid Apophis would definitely crash into Earth around 2036 are inaccurate.

"That's not right," Chodas told SPACE.com. "The probability of an impact is going down."

--------------

Chodas told SPACE.com that Apophis will remain a top impact risk for Earth over the long term, say over the next million years. But sending a spacecraft to intentionally tweak the asteroid's orbit in the short term, when it poses little risk, carries its own dangers.

"You have the potential of increasing the impact probability with failures in the mission," Chodas said. "You could make matters worse."

-----------

 

[cyclonebuster]

We can use solar energy to capture it! Plenty of fuel there right?

 

[MeteorWayne]

We can use solar energy to capture it! Plenty of fuel there right?

And how much did you calculate we need?

 

[cyclonebuster]

No idea. You tell me?

 

[cyclonebuster]

I also think the russians don't care how much fuel it would take? Just bring enough so you don't run out and if you do run out send some more up! :mrgreen:

 

[silylene]

It would be a good idea to 'practice' with a mission to Apophis when it swings close to us in 2029.

Manned ? We could, but I doubt we would have the craft ready in time.
Unmanned? Certainly!

Some suggested goals:
1. Rendezvous.
2. Lander which touches down in multiple locations, taking samples and leaving behind thumpers.
3. Recovery of soil and mineral samples.
4. Drill a core, also for sample return.
5. Mini seismometer. With the thumpers creating small seismic shocks, we should be able to build a very interesting seismic profile of the inside of Apophis. What's a rubble pile like?
5. Leave a laser reflector behind on the surface (good for accurate future measurements).
6. Successful return to earth's surface.

 

[cyclonebuster]

It would be a good idea to 'practice' with a mission to Apophis when it swings close to us in 2029.

Manned ? We could, but I doubt we would have the craft ready in time.
Unmanned? Certainly!

Some suggested goals:
1. Rendezvous.
2. Lander which touches down in multiple locations, taking samples and leaving behind thumpers.
3. Recovery of soil and mineral samples.
4. Drill a core, also for sample return.
5. Mini seismometer. With the thumpers creating small seismic shocks, we should be able to build a very interesting seismic profile of the inside of Apophis. What's a rubble pile like?
5. Leave a laser reflector behind on the surface (good for accurate future measurements).
6. Successful return to earth's surface.

How about using solar energy to capture it and place it into an orbit around Earth? That way we can study it whenever we want like our moon. I imagine many solar powered rail guns discarding material in the opposite direction to slow it down for capture.

 

[cyclonebuster]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...usnavy_2008.jpg/800px-Railgun_usnavy_2008.jpg

 

[cyclonebuster]

On January 31, 2008 the US Navy tested a railgun that fired a shell at 10.64 MJ with a muzzle velocity of 2,520 m/s.[15] Its expected performance is a muzzle velocity over 5,800 m/s, accurate enough to hit a 5 meter target over 200 nautical miles (370.4 km) away while firing at 10 shots per minute. The power was provided by a new 9-megajoule (MJ) prototype capacitor bank using solid-state switches and high-energy-density capacitors delivered in 2007 and an older 32-MJ pulse power system from the US Army’s Green Farm Electric Gun Research and Development Facility developed in the late 1980’s that was previously refurbished by General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems (EMS) Division[16]. It is expected to be ready between 2020 to 2025.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Possible impact effects
NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it struck Earth as the equivalent of 1,480 megatons of TNT. A later, more refined NASA estimate was 880 megatons.[2] The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3–10 megaton range[17] The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.


Path of risk where 99942 Apophis may impact Earth in 2036.The exact effects of any impact would vary based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter.

The B612 Foundation made estimates of Apophis' path if a 2036 Earth impact were to occur as part of an effort to develop viable deflection strategies.[18] The result is a narrow corridor a few miles wide, called the path of risk, and it includes most of southern Russia, across the north Pacific (relatively close to the coastlines of California and Mexico), then right between Nicaragua and Costa Rica, crossing northern Colombia and Venezuela, ending in the Atlantic, just before reaching Africa.[19][20] Using the computer simulation tool NEOSim, it was estimated that the hypothetical impact of Apophis in countries such as Colombia and Venezuela, which are in the path of risk, would have had more than 10 million casualties.[21] An impact several thousand miles off the West Coast of the US would produce a devastating tsunami

 

[MeteorWayne]

No idea. You tell me?

No not really. I'm not the one making the silly suggestions, you are. Back it up with some actual science.