Russia to send spacecraft to knock Apophis off course?

[MeteorWayne]

Possible impact effects
NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it struck Earth as the equivalent of 1,480 megatons of TNT. A later, more refined NASA estimate was 880 megatons.[2] The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3–10 megaton range[17] The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.


Path of risk where 99942 Apophis may impact Earth in 2036.The exact effects of any impact would vary based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter.

The B612 Foundation made estimates of Apophis' path if a 2036 Earth impact were to occur as part of an effort to develop viable deflection strategies.[18]

Again, more unscientific BS. Have you read the latest papers about the odds of an impact? About the current extimates of the mass? Have you calulated one bloody thing about the silly ideas you are suggesting? Of course not, you just throw out ideas without making any effort to understand what you are babbling about.

When was the B612 estimate made? Do you know or care?

BTW, the latest estimate is about 560 MT. That's if in the 1 in 233,000 chance an impact would occur, which we can't refine until 2013...

 

[cyclonebuster]

Possible impact effects
NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it struck Earth as the equivalent of 1,480 megatons of TNT. A later, more refined NASA estimate was 880 megatons.[2] The impacts which created the Barringer Crater or the Tunguska event are estimated to be in the 3–10 megaton range[17] The 1883 eruption of Krakatoa was the equivalent of roughly 200 megatons.


Path of risk where 99942 Apophis may impact Earth in 2036.The exact effects of any impact would vary based on the asteroid's composition, and the location and angle of impact. Any impact would be extremely detrimental to an area of thousands of square kilometres, but would be unlikely to have long-lasting global effects, such as the initiation of an impact winter.

The B612 Foundation made estimates of Apophis' path if a 2036 Earth impact were to occur as part of an effort to develop viable deflection strategies.[18]

Again, more unscientific BS. Have you read the latest papers about the odds of an impact? About the current extimates of the mass? Have you calulated one bloody thing about the silly ideas you are suggesting? Of course not, you just throw out ideas without making any effort to understand what you are babbling about.

When was the B612 estimate made? Do you know or care?

BTW, the latest estimate is about 560 MT. That's if in the 1 in 233,000 chance an impact would occur, which we can't refine until 2013...

I tell you what.I will think of the ideas first then do the calculations later. That's how inventions are done.I don't need some moderator to be be-littling me here with trivial tripe "such as" "Have you calulated one bloody thing about the silly ideas you are suggesting? Of course not, you just throw out ideas without making any effort to understand what you are babbling about".
I rather a person in your postion to say sure how can I help? Do you want me to run some quick calcualtions for you? BTW Merry Chrismass and a Happy New year to you. Also,I am not really into your ACRONYMS if you have something bad to say then why beat around the bush?

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Again, more unscientific BS. Have you read the latest papers about the odds of an impact? About the current extimates of the mass? Have you calulated one bloody thing about the silly ideas you are suggesting? Of course not, you just throw out ideas without making any effort to understand what you are babbling about.

When was the B612 estimate made? Do you know or care?

Are you channeling jimfromnsf? Because you're being really nasty.

 

[grokme]

I can't believe the Russians would waste hundreds of millions of dollars trying to deflect something that is not a threat. Also, doesn't it pose a huge risk to shift this thing's orbit? Could we shift it to where it interfered with some other asteroid we aren't even aware of yet. Seems like we would be playing with fire. The solar system seems to pretty well balanced. I mean, we don't have collisions that often anymore. Why mess with it?

 

[robnissen]

Are you channeling jimfromnsf? Because you're being really nasty.

I don't agree. When someone posts drivel, I think it is entirely proper to call then on it. "I think we should just use solar power-nuclear fusion-nuclear fission-pixie dust-time travel-bb guns-a really strong man -- to capture the asteroid and put it in orbit." Posts such as that, do nothing except take up space. If you legitimately think you have a means to capture the asteroid then breifly state your case. Posting drivel is not helpful.

 

[Boris_Badenov]

"I think we should just use solar power-nuclear fusion-nuclear fission-pixie dust-time travel-bb guns-a really strong man -- to capture the asteroid and put it in orbit." Posts such as that, do nothing except take up space. If you legitimately think you have a means to capture the asteroid then breifly state your case. Posting drivel is not helpful.

I brought a 3 year old thread back to life in SB&T on this very subject. No drivel involved. :roll:

 

[R1]

Anyway, unless it's a very big and complicated mission lasting many years and years, I don't
think we can even send a lander to it. It wouldn't even be a landing, it would be more like
a docking. It will be too fast to dock with when it's close to Earth, wouldn't it ?

 

[cyclonebuster]

Anyways,I am betting a solar powered rail gun can shoot the iron deposits off the asteroid with tremdous reaction forces in the right direction over time to slow the roid down to capture it in Earths orbit. That's the theory now we work the math! 16% iron is a lot of mass we can use to our advantage. :shock:

 

[R1]

No, it's already too close to Earth's orbit for comfort, and Apophis is only one of many of them.

How about about trying to attach probes to it permanently ?
It may be too fast to reach, though. I don't know.

 

[cyclonebuster]

No, it's already too close to Earth's orbit for comfort, and Apophis is only one of many of them.

How about about trying to attach probes to it permanently ?
It may be too fast to reach, though. I don't know.

Is the moons orbit to close to Earth for comfort?

 

[grokme]

I thought Sylilene's post was good. Why not try to manage these asteroids rather than deflect them. We should have missions to the ones that pose the most threat to 1) learn about them 2) set up an infrastructure for handling them in the future. That makes sense.

 

[MeteorWayne]

I tell you what.I will think of the ideas first then do the calculations later. That's how inventions are done.I don't need some moderator to be be-littling me here with trivial tripe "such as" "Have you calulated one bloody thing about the silly ideas you are suggesting? Of course not, you just throw out ideas without making any effort to understand what you are babbling about".
I rather a person in your postion to say sure how can I help? Do you want me to run some quick calcualtions for you? BTW Merry Chrismass and a Happy New year to you. Also,I am not really into your ACRONYMS if you have something bad to say then why beat around the bush?

Why should I spend an hour doing the calculations? It's not quick, which is proably why you won't do it. It's your silly idea, show that it is feasible. YOU do the work. I have told you it's not feasible. SHow me I am wrong and I will be the first to admit you proved your case. Instead you "throw out ideas" and expect others to do the heavy lifting.

I will do it under one condition. That you stop posting ridiculous ideas in the future that you don't demonstarte as feasible.

 

[R1]

No, it's already too close to Earth's orbit for comfort, and Apophis is only one of many of them.

How about about trying to attach probes to it permanently ?
It may be too fast to reach, though. I don't know.

Is the moons orbit to close to Earth for comfort?

The moon is extremely stable by comparison, that is why I would like to have people attach probes to Apophis permanently.

 

[MeteorWayne]

I tell you what.I will think of the ideas first then do the calculations later. That's how inventions are done.

I had to respond to this separately.
That's not how it works. Ideas are just that, ideas. Turning them into inventions takes real work, real research, and real science. To quote Thomas Alva Edison:

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration."

That means the idea is just the beginning, without the science and the work, it's pure fluff.

 

[cyclonebuster]

No, it's already too close to Earth's orbit for comfort, and Apophis is only one of many of them.

How about about trying to attach probes to it permanently ?
It may be too fast to reach, though. I don't know.

Is the moons orbit to close to Earth for comfort?

The moon is extremely stable by comparison, that is why I would like to have people attach probes to Apophis permanently.

MeteorWayne,
I'll stick to thinking of the ideas first then doing calculations later. That is what I did with my Tunnel idea for example. It work perfectly and just how I conceptualized the idea. I did calculations later. Even though the calculations only worked for certain sizes the calculations always changed as the size of them changed. However, even though the calculations changed this did not prevent the idea from working. This is why I went out and built a test model to DEMONSTRATE and PROVE my theory because I knew the idea would work with just about any size tunnel I wanted.I even video taped it on Youtube to DEMONSTRATE and PROVE to others the idea works. So I will pass on your not so generous offer thank you very much!BTW "Merry Christmass" and "Happy New Year" to you and your Family:mrgreen:

On another note if we have the ability to capture and pull an asteriod into an orbit around Earth then I am sure we would have the ability to nudge it into an extremly stable orbit such as the moon is and keep it there. So what do you think of the solar powered rail gun idea attached to asteroids to move them around with? Possible or not possible?

 

[MeteorWayne]

So I will pass on your not so generous offer thank you very much!

I suspected that you would And it was actually quite generous, to spend an hour of my precious time showing that your idea had no merit.

 

[ZenGalacticore]

Oh sure, thinking up the ideas is the fun part. Applying the idea is the work. Wouldn't it be great to get paid for visualizing and originating ideas, then tell the engineers, designers, and researchers in the labs: "Okay people, make it work!" :lol:

Give the shovel to the originator, I say.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Oh sure, thinking up the ideas is the fun part. Applying the idea is the work. Wouldn't it be great to get paid for visualizing and originating ideas, then tell the engineers, designers, and researchers in the labs: "Okay people, make it work!" :lol:

Give the shovel to the originator, I say.

Correct people make it work. People like Orville and Wilbur Wright who never graduated high scool. :mrgreen:

 

[Fallingstar1971]

Perhaps if you put all the supercomputers in the world on the problem,

Then perhaps you consider that no matter what is proposed, were talking multi-orbit here. There is no energy source I can think of that could slow this down enough for a stable Earth capture. Not without shattering it and now we got BIG problems.

So perhaps in 3 or 4 passes with multi-national support your dream of asteroid capture could be realized. You do understand that this thing is MOVING (Very quickly I may add), and TUMBLING (So much for slowing it down with sails). When an asteroid impacts, speed is a major factor in damage.

So for a nice stable capture we will need the following:

1. INSANE amounts of money

2. A mechanism for stopping the tumble. Once this is done sails become an option

3. Sail deployment, the solar wind, OVER TIME (perhaps 3-4 orbits, perhaps more) the asteroid may be capturable.

4. Lasers (the kind thought of for deflection) could be conceivably used to slow it down.

Again though, the kind of power needed would be INSANE. AND it needs to be the PERFECT amount. Too much, asteroid shatters, too little, and you risk deflecting it on a more dangerous course.

So, how many rockets now need to go to haul up all this equipment? Whos going to foot the bill? We have all seen solar panels foul up at the ISS. Whos going to fix it out there? Now we need to send people. So on top of all the stuff we need in equipment, now we need to launch a crew. More weight, more money.

What frightens me is the fact that the Russians are seriously considering this very mission. Should they choose to weaponize it they could devastate the country of there choosing with plausible deniabilty.

The other thing is if they pull this off, they will have space superiority. Will the rest of the worlds governments be content with NOT getting a piece of that pie? This could start a whole new space race, with new techs being accelerated in development.

OR

Not.....

Star

 

[cyclonebuster]

Perhaps if you put all the supercomputers in the world on the problem,

Then perhaps you consider that no matter what is proposed, were talking multi-orbit here. There is no energy source I can think of that could slow this down enough for a stable Earth capture. Not without shattering it and now we got BIG problems.

So perhaps in 3 or 4 passes with multi-national support your dream of asteroid capture could be realized. You do understand that this thing is MOVING (Very quickly I may add), and TUMBLING (So much for slowing it down with sails). When an asteroid impacts, speed is a major factor in damage.

So for a nice stable capture we will need the following:

1. INSANE amounts of money

2. A mechanism for stopping the tumble. Once this is done sails become an option

3. Sail deployment, the solar wind, OVER TIME (perhaps 3-4 orbits, perhaps more) the asteroid may be capturable.

4. Lasers (the kind thought of for deflection) could be conceivably used to slow it down.

Again though, the kind of power needed would be INSANE. AND it needs to be the PERFECT amount. Too much, asteroid shatters, too little, and you risk deflecting it on a more dangerous course.

So, how many rockets now need to go to haul up all this equipment? Whos going to foot the bill? We have all seen solar panels foul up at the ISS. Whos going to fix it out there? Now we need to send people. So on top of all the stuff we need in equipment, now we need to launch a crew. More weight, more money.

What frightens me is the fact that the Russians are seriously considering this very mission. Should they choose to weaponize it they could devastate the country of there choosing with plausible deniabilty.

The other thing is if they pull this off, they will have space superiority. Will the rest of the worlds governments be content with NOT getting a piece of that pie? This could start a whole new space race, with new techs being accelerated in development.

OR

Not.....

Star

Nah! A few rail guns capable of being pointed in any direction can do the trick. That way they can take the tumble out and slow it down. It would have to be a robotic mission.

 

[bdewoody]

Oh sure, thinking up the ideas is the fun part. Applying the idea is the work. Wouldn't it be great to get paid for visualizing and originating ideas, then tell the engineers, designers, and researchers in the labs: "Okay people, make it work!" :lol:

Give the shovel to the originator, I say.

Correct people make it work. People like Orville and Wilbur Wright who never graduated high scool. :mrgreen:

Wilbur and Orville Wright while not school educated, were schooled by their parents and themselves and were proficient engineers and scientists.

 

[bdewoody]

The way I see this is the Russians don't have much to lose by trying this stunt. If they succeed in getting to this asteroid and altering it's course they can proclaim they have saved the world (assuming their meddleing doesn't steer it into the earth) and if they don't alter it's course they can say at least that they tried.

 

[silylene]

The way I see this is the Russians don't have much to loose by trying this stunt. If they succeed in getting to this asteroid and altering it's course they can proclaim they have saved the world (assuming their meddleing doesn't steer it into the earth) and if they don't alter it's course they can say at least that they tried.

You lose the opportunity to do some good science instead. See my earlier post above.

 

[Boris_Badenov]

The way I see this is the Russians don't have much to loose by trying this stunt. If they succeed in getting to this asteroid and altering it's course they can proclaim they have saved the world (assuming their meddleing doesn't steer it into the earth) and if they don't alter it's course they can say at least that they tried.

If they're meddling causes it to strike Earth there's a good chance that it'll hit in Russia somewhere. Maybe they should just leave it alone.

The map is bigger than that. You can see the whole thing here.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Hey Boris, what is the map supposed to represent?

Edit, aha, I see it's the 2037 path of risk. Which is interesting, since there is no longer any risk for 2037!

Oops, the image title says 2037, but apparently it is for 2036. Odd...

However, despite the validity of the B612 foundation, predicting the path in 2036 after the 2029 keyhole pass (and remember the chances are 99.99957% that it will miss earth, so how can you make an impact prediction?) is really stretching the reality of the known path.

The very least we should do before global panic is to get the super refined orbit after the close 2013 pass where radar range and doppler velocity measurements will graetly refine the orbit.