Solar Cycle Progression

[EarthlingX]

Sun in May 2010, as seen by SOHO, videos from http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/gif/ changed to 1 fps, compressed using xvid codec.

EIT 171 :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf4mUyMGzvU[/youtube]

EIT 284 :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCqh1JAN4nE[/youtube]

 

[EarthlingX]

Series of four CMEs, from 22nd to 24th May, by STEREO Ahead COR2 :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXw09ucFQiY[/youtube]

 

[EarthlingX]

Just noticed M-class Flare, but let me drop this first, and maybe get to that later :


http://www.youtube.com/user/SDOmission2009

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyuiC4nYkEE[/youtube]
June 11, 2010 — The close-up view of waving, dynamic loops above two active regions on the Sun reveal the magnetic struggle occurring near the surface over a two-day period (June 6-7, 2010). As seen here in extreme UV light, charged particles spiral along these magnetic loops that arc out above and back into the surface. The emission from these particles is what creates the light that appears in the image and reveals the magnetic field lines. If viewed in visible light, larger active regions (like the lower one) appear as darker sunspots because they are somewhat cooler than the surrounding solar surface. It looks like the two active regions do generate some magnetic interactions with each other as well.

 

[EarthlingX]

M Class Flare sign is still 'on'.

soho.nascom.nasa.gov : Ring of "Fire" (June 11, 2010)

An almost perfectly circular coronal mass ejection (CME) blew out from the Sun as seen in this video clip covering 36 hours (June 5-6, 2010). It maintained its shape for many hours. Many scientists believe that such CME shapes represent huge loops of magnetic field. CME's are large solar storms that eject over a billion tons of matter at millions of miles per hour. SOHO captured the action with its C2 coronagraph, in which the sun is blocked out (by the circular occulting disk in the center of the image) to reveal the faint structures in the corona. The white circle represents the size of the Sun.

Slowed down to 4 fps :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gyztdlNiNA[/youtube]

and only 2010 Jun 05, 1 fps, croped CME :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s-KrtsHszk[/youtube]

 

[EarthlingX]

Solar X-rays from flare to 'ACTIVE'.

http://www.newscientist.com : What's wrong with the sun? ( 3 page article )

14 June 2010

by Stuart Clark

( Video: Sun spots )

SUNSPOTS come and go, but recently they have mostly gone. For centuries, astronomers have recorded when these dark blemishes on the solar surface emerge, only for them to fade away again after a few days, weeks or months. Thanks to their efforts, we know that sunspot numbers ebb and flow in cycles lasting about 11 years.

But for the past two years, the sunspots have mostly been missing. Their absence, the most prolonged for nearly a hundred years, has taken even seasoned sun watchers by surprise. "This is solar behaviour we haven't seen in living memory," says David Hathaway, a physicist at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

The sun is under scrutiny as never before thanks to an armada of space telescopes. The results they beam back are portraying our nearest star, and its influence on Earth, in a new light. Sunspots and other clues indicate that the sun's magnetic activity is diminishing, and that the sun may even be shrinking. Together the results hint that something profound is happening inside the sun. The big question is what?

http://www.spaceweather.com : What's up in Space June 12, 2010

SOLAR FLARES: Today, June 12th at 0055 UT, new sunspot 1081 unleashed an impulsive M1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast in high-resolution:



The explosion hurled a billion-ton coronal mass ejection (CME) off the sun's western limb; the cloud will probably not hit Earth. The explosion also produced a Type II radio burst. "Although the Sun was setting here in New Mexico, I was able to record the burst at 28 MHz and 24 MHz," says amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft. "Here is an audio file. The slow swoosh is radio noise from the sun!"

The M2-flare was followed at 0917 UT by an even more picturesque C6-flare. SDO recorded that one, too: movie, still frame. More flares seem likely as restless sunspot 1081 continues to grow. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

Some of the above links might not work, in that case check it on the linked page.

 

[csmyth3025]

I'm surprised that the scientists seem surprised by the variability the Sun is apparently displaying. I found the following comment in the Wikipedia article on the Maunder Minimum:

In total there seem to have been 18 periods of sunspot minima in the last 8,000 years, and studies indicate that the sun currently spends up to a quarter of its time in these minima.

It seems likely to me that scientists who study the sun would be as aware of this little piece of trivia as are the contributors to this Wikipedia article.

Chris

 

[MeteorWayne]

I assure you they were and are aware. But reliable sunspot records only go back a few centuries, so the 8Ky statement is made with some limited support from proxy records.
Also, it is a unique opportunity now, since the sun is being examined by a dozen spacecraft across the electromagnetic spectrum and out into space to the edge of the heliosphere.
Current models did not predict the long minimum, which shows how little we know about the details of the process within the sun. The purpose of all these current studies is to begin to understand more about our star

 

[csmyth3025]

I agree with you on all points MeteorWayne. My comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek because of the (purposely) eye catching article title

"Sun's Strange Behavior Baffles Astronomers "

.

Scientists are no doubt aware that periods of minimal solar activity have happened in the past and will happen again. I think that, rather than baffled, they more likely feel excited about the possibility that they may be able to study such an event in their own lifetimes with the more sophisticated earth and space-based instruments that are now available.

Chris

 

[MeteorWayne]

Yeah, we are in agreement.

All I can say is "Headlines Ain't Science"

 

[bdewoody]

When I took astronomy in college they were still teaching that the sun was a steady state star with very little variation in output. The leap in solar knowledge over the last 40 years is amazing.

 

[EarthlingX]

You are probably talking about this :

SDC : Sun's Strange Behavior Baffles Astronomers

By Denise Chow
SPACE.com Staff Writer
posted: 14 June 2010
06:53 am ET

The sun's temper ebbs and flows on what scientists had thought was a pretty predictable cycle, but lately our closest star has been acting up.

Typically, a few stormy years would knock out a satellite or two and maybe trip a power grid on Earth. Then a few years of quiet, and then back to the bad behavior. But an extremely long stretch of low activity in recent years has scientists baffled and scrambling for better forecasting models.

An expected minimum of solar activity, between 2008 and 2009, was unusually deep. And while the sun would normally ramp up activity by now, heading into its next cycle, the sun may be on the verge of a weak solar cycle instead, astronomers said at the 216th meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Miami last month.

"We're witnessing something unlike anything we've seen in 100 years," said David Hathaway of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala.

Here is a very good comment :

Download a pdf with lots of detail: http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1005/1005.5303.pdf I'm pretty much convinced.

arxiv.org : Are Uranus & Neptune responsible for Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation? (pdf)

Sharp G.J.,
Melbourne Australia.
Email: gs_qad@hotmail.com

Abstract
Detailed solar Angular Momentum (AM) graphs produced from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 ephemeris display cyclic perturbations that show a very strong correlation with prior solar activity slowdowns. These same AM perturbations also occur simultaneously with known solar path changes about the Solar System Barycentre (SSB). The AM perturbations can be measured and quantified allowing analysis of past solar cycle modulations along with the 11,500 year solar proxy records (14C & 10Be). The detailed AM information also displays a recurring wave of modulation that aligns very closely with the observed sunspot record since 1650. The AM perturbation and modulation is a direct product of the outer gas giants (Uranus & Neptune). This information gives the opportunity to predict future grand minima along with normal solar cycle strength with some confidence. A proposed mechanical link between solar activity and planetary influence via a discrepancy found in solar/planet AM along with current AM perturbations indicate solar cycle 24 & 25 will be heavily reduced in sunspot activity resembling a similar pattern to solar cycles 5 & 6 during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830).

Very nice pictures too.

 

[MeteorWayne]

bdewoody,
Well, compared to most stars, it is very steady. The variation is on the order of a few tenths of a percent, concurrent with the sunspot cycle.

 

[csmyth3025]

I know I'm opening a Pandora's Box here, but I wonder how (or if, at all) these solar variations relate to the hotly debated and politically charged issue of CO2 emmisions being the primary cause of Climate Change based on average global temperatures over the last few decades.

Chris

 

[MeteorWayne]

Not really, except in conspiracy land. Again, the variation in solar output is extremely small, while the 35% increase in CO2 is not.

But this discussion belings in Forces of Nature, so I may move these posts to an approprite active thread there.

This one is strictly to discuss this solar cycle....i.e. solar activity.

Wayne

 

[kimba463]

SpaceX Updates

I, being a first-timer, am not sure that I am in the right place for this question or not... here goes anyway - I recently read a scientific report that we are expecting an extremely active solar maximum period during the next two to three years which, of course, prompted me to warn family and friends about their electronic devices, etc. Today I read another scientific report from the same site (MSNBC Technology and Science / space) that touts a very subdued solar maximum season. Okay, so now I feel like a total idiot. I'm beginning to think nobody really knows what kind of solar cycle we are currently experiencing and perhaps I should just keep my mouth shut next time I hear any "solar" news???

 

[AdmiralRitt]

Is there any evidence that the sun builds up extra energy during these irregularly long quiet periods,
and then becomes very violently active when waking up. Could we see record braking CME's on a scale
not seen this century. Aurora borealis in florida. If violent enough, our civlization could be damaged by
a mere hiccup of the solar cycle. Horse and buggy time until electronics were restored.

 

[MeteorWayne]

No, in fact the opposite appears to be true. The long minima are part of a period of weaker than average cycles.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... umbers.png
(Click on link to see full graph)

 

[bdewoody]

Continued Low Sunspot Activity

According to an article in the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 4.html?g=0
the sun is still baffling solar scientists and may cease forming sunspots by 2015. How this will effect the earth is still being debated but lack off sunspot activity has been linked to abnormally cold weather. So maybe we will have to rethink our anti global warming stance.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: Continued Low Sunspot Activity

I'm going to move this to the "Current Solar Cycle" thread in Space Science and Astronomy.

MW

Edit: actually, Andrew beat me to it Thanx.

 

[bdewoody]

Two questions for the solar experts. The first, if the sun is heading into an extended period of few or no sunspots what will the implications be regarding the weather.

The second is will the lack of sunspots mean a reduction or lack of CME's which in turn would make long duration space missions safer?

I'm not sure of the exact relationship between sunspots and CME's

 

[EarthlingX]

SDC : Sun Eruption That May Have Spawned Zombie Satellite Identified

By Zoe Macintosh
SPACE.com Staff Writer
posted: 13 July 2010
08:56 am ET



Scientists have identified a massive eruption from the sun in April that reached all the way to Earth and may be responsible for knocking out a satellite, creating a so-called "zombie satellite."

The huge explosion of plasma and magnetic energy, called as a coronal mass ejection (CME), occurred on April 3 and was observed by NASA's sun-watching STEREO spacecraft, according to the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). The laboratory released new images of the solar storm last week.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Just to note the fried sat was Galaxy 15, one of the GSO communication satellites:

 

[EarthlingX]

Some other satellite in GSO recently lost half of it's transponders, but i don't remember the name.

This action was also very much in the news :

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxVOIEKp__Y[/youtube]

 

[EarthlingX]

science.nasa.gov : Space Weather Turns into an International Problem

July 16, 2010:

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips

Sometimes a problem is so big, one country cannot handle it alone.

That's the message scientists are delivering at today's International Living with a Star (ILWS) meeting in Bremen, Germany, and representatives from more than 25 of the world's most technologically-advanced nations have gathered to hear what they have to say.

"The problem is solar storms—figuring out how to predict them and stay safe from their effects," says ILWS Chairperson Lika Guhathakurta of NASA headquarters. "We need to make progress on this before the next solar maximum arrives around 2013."

Click on the image to visit the International Living with a Star (ILWS) home page.

"The Earth and sun are interconnected. We cannot study them separately anymore," says Guhathakurta.

Predicting solar activity is a complicated problem, akin in some ways to terrestrial weather forecasting but multiplied in difficulty by the thorny physics of solar plasma and magnetism. Predicting the sun is only half the problem, though; the other half is Earth. How our planet's magnetic field and atmosphere respond to any given solar storm is a magnetohydrodynamical riddle that top scientists struggle to understand even with the aid of Earth's most powerful supercomputers. For these reasons, it is often said that space weather forecasting lags 50 years behind its terrestrial counterpart.

That's why, this week, she is handing over her chairmanship of ILWS to Dr. Ji Wu of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. In addition to leading the ILWS, Wu will spend the next two years harnessing the special talents of the world's most populous country for heliophysics.

"We have many scientists and lots of fresh ideas," says Wu. "China will be able to make important contributions in this area."

China is about to contribute a space-buoy known as "KuaFu," named after a giant in Chinese mythology who wished to capture the sun. Kuafu will be located at the L1 Lagrange point where it will sample the solar wind upstream from Earth.

"We're putting KuaFu at a strategic point in space," says Wu. "The solar wind at L1 is an important input to many science models of the sun-Earth interaction."

When KuaFu launches it will join a growing international fleet of spacecraft dedicated to heliophysics. NASA, the European Space Agency, the Russian Federal Space Agency, the Canadian Space Agency, JAXA and China are all making significant contributions.

If forecasters are correct, the solar cycle will peak during the years around 2013. And while it probably won't be the biggest peak on record, human society has never been more vulnerable. The basics of daily life—from communications to weather forecasting to financial services—depend on satellites and high-tech electronics. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warned that a century-class solar storm could cause billions in economic damage.

 

[EarthlingX]

http://www.youtube.com/user/thesuntoday
The Sun This Week With SDO/AIA (July 18-24, 2010)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhEZlJkzHgM[/youtube]

http://www.thesuntoday.org - For the week of July 18-24, 2010, solar activity was very low. Here is the sun as observed by the AIA (Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) instrument aboard the SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) spacecraft. The wavelength channel is 171 angstroms. At the beginning of the week sunspot region NOAA 11087 decayed in size and complexity producing a C2.4 flare at 17-Jul-2010 17:27 UT and a B5.5 flare at 19-Jul-2010 07:27 UT. On July 20th a new region, NOAA 11089, rotated over the South-East limb. The region had extended bright EUV loops and produced several B-class events. NOAA 11089 grew over the next few days producing several B-class events and one C-class event (a C1.4 at 20-Jul-2010 13:38 UT). Sunspot regions NOAA 11087 and 11088 rotated over the western limb on July 23. NOAA 11089 produced a B9.3 flare at 15:16 UT on 23-Jul-2010 (source: Max Millennium Chief Observer Reports - http://solar.physics.montana.edu/max_millennium/ops/observing.shtml and http://solarmonitor.org