Solar Cycle Progression

[EarthlingX]

spaceweather.com : Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2010

A BIG SUNSPOT GETS BIGGER:

Behemoth sunspot 1117 is not merely growing, it is transmogrifying. Click on the image to launch a two-day movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (8 MB):

Since yesterday, the shape-shifting sunspot has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Any such eruptions will likely be geoeffective because the sunspot is almost-squarely facing Earth. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.
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[EarthlingX]

http://www.eurekalert.org : Scientists unlock the secrets of exploding plasma clouds on the sun

An erupting "prominence" is observed using photons at wavelength 304 Å. A prominence typically outlines the trailing part of a larger CME flux rope structure. The striated plasma filaments are organized by magnetic fields into strands of a "rope." In this snapshot, the apex is at about 300,000 km above the solar surface, a distance equal to about 24 Earths placed side by side. Image obtained at 07:19 UT, Sept. 14, 1999, by the EIT instrument on the SOHO spacecraft. Both SOHO and STEREO are cooperative missions between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA.
Credit: European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA

The Sun sporadically expels trillions of tons of million-degree hydrogen gas in explosions called coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Such clouds—an example is shown in Figure 1a—are enormous in size (spanning millions of miles) and are made up of magnetized plasma gases, so hot that hydrogen atoms are ionized. CMEs are rapidly accelerated by magnetic forces to speeds of hundreds of kilometers per second to upwards of 2,000 kilometers per second in several tens of minutes. CMEs are closely related to solar flares and, when they impinge on the Earth, can trigger spectacular auroral displays. They also induce strong electric currents in the Earth's plasma atmosphere (i.e., the magnetosphere and ionosphere), leading to outages in telecommunications and GPS systems and even the collapse of electric power grids if the disturbances are very severe.

Since the first observation of a solar flare in 1859, solar eruptions ("explosions") have attracted much attention from scientists around the world and have been studied with a succession of increasingly sophisticated international satellite missions in the past three decades. A major challenge has been that enormous and complicated plasma structures accelerating away from the Sun can only be observed remotely. As a result, it has been difficult to test theoretical models to establish a correct understanding of the mechanisms that cause such eruptions. But in 2006, an international twin-satellite mission called STEREO was launched to continuously observe the erupting plasma structures from the Sun to the Earth.

Now, using the data from STEREO, new research by scientists at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) in Washington, D.C., demonstrates for the first time that the observed motion of erupting plasma clouds driven by magnetic forces can be correctly explained by a theoretical model. The work will be presented at the 52nd Annual Meeting of the APS Plasma Physics Division.


This is an artist's rendition of an expanding model CME flux rope, which is about to impinge on the Earth. The dark blue represents a weak calculated magnetic field (of the order of 15 nanotesla) while red shows a strong field (of the order of 1 gauss). One representative magnetic "field line" is illustrated.
Credit: J. Chen and V. Kunkel

The theory, controversial when it was first proposed in 1989 by Dr. James Chen of NRL, is based on the concept that an erupting plasma cloud is a giant "magnetic flux rope," a rope of "twisted" magnetic field lines shaped like a partial donut. Chen and Valbona Kunkel, a doctoral student at George Mason University, have applied this model to the new STEREO data of CMEs and shown that the theoretical solutions agree with the measured trajectories of the ejected clouds within the entire field of view from the Sun to the Earth.

The position of the leading edge (LE) of a CME that erupted on December 24, 2007 were tracked by the STEREO-A spacecraft from the earliest stages of eruption to its arrival at 1 AU approximately five days later. The magnetic field and plasma parameters were measured by the STEREO-B spacecraft. The agreement between theory and data is within 1 percent of the measured position of the LE. Chen and Kunkel's results show that the theoretically predicted magnetic field and plasma properties are in excellent agreement with the measurements aboard STEREO-B. This is the first model that can replicate directly observed quantities near the Sun and the Earth as well as the actual trajectories of CMEs. Prior to STEREO, the motion of CMEs in the region corresponding to HI1 and HI2 data was not observed.

Interestingly, the basic forces acting on solar flux ropes are the same as those in laboratory plasma structures such as tokamaks developed to produce controlled fusion energy. The mechanism described by the theory is also potentially applicable to eruptions on other stars.

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[EarthlingX]

http://www.nasa.gov : Sunspot 1121 Unleashes X-ray Flare

11.08.10

Active Region 1121 unleashes x-ray flare. Credit: NASA/SDO/AIA

Active sunspot 1121 has unleashed one of the brightest x-ray solar flares in years, an M5.4-class eruption at 15:36 UT on Nov. 6th.

Radiation from the flare created a wave of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere that altered the propagation of low-frequency radio waves. There was, however, no bright CME (plasma cloud) hurled in our direction, so the event is unlikely to produce auroras in the nights ahead.

This is the third M-flare in as many days from this increasingly active sunspot. So far none of the eruptions has been squarely Earth-directed, but this could change in the days ahead as the sun's rotation turns the active region toward our planet.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqZfenNzSTY[/youtube]

SpaceFellowship | November 08, 2010

Increasingly active sunspot 1121 has unleashed one of the brightest x-ray solar flares in years, an M5.4-class eruption at 15:36 UT on Nov. 6th. This close-up video shows the detail of the flare and its aftermath.

SDC : Sun Unleashes Most Powerful Solar Flare in Years

By Tariq Malik
SPACE.com Managing Editor
posted: 08 November 2010
04:02 pm ET



A major solar flare erupted from the sun Saturday — one of the most powerful in years — sending an energetic blast of X-rays from a hotspot of activity that may still belch more solar storms in the days to come.

The X-ray blast occurred Nov. 6 at about 11:36 EDT (1536 GMT) from an active group of sunspots called 1121. It was the third major flare from the solar hotspot and registered a Class M 5.4 on the scale for sun storms, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center operated by NOAA.

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[EarthlingX]

http://www.universetoday.com : Aurora Alert! Solar Flare Heading Our Way

Nov 12th, 2010

by Nancy Atkinson


This image shows a three and a half hour (0000 - 0330 UT) time lapse movie of the flare and filament event.
Credit: NASA/SDO

An active sunspot (1123) erupted early this morning (Nov. 12th), producing a C4-class solar flare and apparently hurling a filament of material in the general direction of Earth. Coronagraph images from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and NASA’s twin STEREO spacecraft show a faint coronal mass ejection emerging from the blast site and heading off in a direction just south of the sun-Earth line. The cloud could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field sometime on Nov. 14th or 15th. High latitude sky watchers could see auroras on those dates.

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[EarthlingX]

www.nrl.navy.mil : LASCO Coronagraphs Obtain the First Complete Solar Cycle Set of CME Observations

11/15/2010 - NRL Press Release 101-10r
Contact: Donna McKinney, (202) 767-2541

Figure 1. Total mass injection in the solar wind by CMEs over the last 14 years as observed by the Space Science Division's LASCO instrument.

Naval Research Laboratory scientists have analyzed and developed the first comprehensive empirical characterization of solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) size, speed, mass, and kinetic energy. CMEs are the most energetic phenomena in the solar system and the major drivers of geomagnetic storms. They were discovered in 1971 by scientists in the Space Science Division (SSD), Solar Physics Branch. NRL's subsequent sustained basic and applied research on CMEs and their effects on the ionosphere, thermosphere, and the nation's space assets led to a progressively fuller physics-based understanding of space weather phenomena and contributed materially to the space weather forecasting capabilities used by the Air Force Weather Agency to support U.S. warfighters.

To analyze this solar cycle set , NRL researchers have studied the uniquely long-term and comprehensive CME observations obtained by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) sponsored and NRL's SSD-developed and -operated Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) coronagraph aboard the NASA-European Space Agency (ESA) Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission .

The continuous operation of the LASCO coronagraph since 1996 has resulted in the longest and most complete database of CME properties ever assembled. The CME properties such as size, speed, mass, and kinetic energy have been measured and catalogued for 13,587 CMEs (as of December 2009) from 130,000 calibrated LASCO images. This unique database was compiled by SSD researchers Drs. Angelos Vourlidas, Russell Howard, and outside collaborators. Their data analysis, soon to be reported in the Astrophysical Journal, provides a robust understanding of the dynamic properties of CMEs and their long-term trends, information important for understanding the geoeffective potential of CMEs and improving space weather forecasting capabilities.

Among the most important results of the study by the research team are: (1) CMEs become fully developed only at solar distances of about 10-15 solar radii which will require a corresponding field of view (FOV) specification for future operational coronagraphs used for space weather forecasting. (2) Not every solar plasma ejection qualifies as a CME. A large number of ejections disappear within the LASCO FOV (30 solar radii) possibly leading to misidentifications with in-situ observations at Earth. (3) There is a surprising and abrupt drop in the average CME mass and CME ejection rate by a factor of 10 within 4 months in mid-2003 (Figure 1). (4) After mid-2003, CMEs exhibit a six-month periodic behavior while their average mass steadily decreases to about 4x less than the previous minimum. When compared with similar, but intermittent, observations in previous solar cycles, the average CME mass seems to exhibit a downward trend beginning in the mid-1970s.

Vourlidas and his team report that there is currently no clear explanation for the periodic variations in CME ejection rate. The discovery of such unexpected regularity in CME behavior has potentially important implications for space weather forecasting and demonstrates the importance of long-term solar activity monitoring.

 

[volocafe]

I think everyone should be very concerned about the solar flares..they may look pretty but could reek absolute havoc while frying our copper coils..I do not recall the year but the last blast of a solar flare blew out all telegraph machines etc.Communication,travel would come to a grinding halt.People forget about all our computer chips running our vehicles nowadays....alot of people are keeping and older model pickup etc. without all the chips for this very reason....Debit machines,gas pumps you name it ..it would be a nightmare...so remember folks be prepared..keep that pantry stocked.......volocafe

 

[adrenalynn]

I think everyone should be very concerned about the solar flares..they may look pretty but could reek absolute havoc while frying our copper coils..I do not recall the year but the last blast of a solar flare blew out all telegraph machines etc.Communication,travel would come to a grinding halt.

No, No, and no. But thanks anyway.

 

[kk434]

I think that a major anomaly like the Maunder Minimum (Litle Ice Age) is headig our way. The sun was in a unusual low for the last couple of years and the last winter and this one are very cold in Europe. but these changes take decades so we won't know for a very long time.

 

[adrenalynn]

Any evidence other than the normal climate fluctuations that we've "seen" for hundreds of millions of years?