How much of a concern is this? A solar storm causing power outage bc of a cme. I heard it may happen in the next decade including in 2025. The video details more and this is a problem concerning everyone.
Solar storm internet collapse??
- Thread starter bigvuth
- Start date
How much of a concern is this? A solar storm causing power outage bc of a cme. I heard it may happen in the next decade including in 2025. The video details more and this is a problem concerning everyone.
This has been a concern for many years. Impact of solar activity on communications and the electric grid are known concerns.
There are multiple sources that can help explain further. One example:
www.swpc.noaa.gov
There are multiple sources that can help explain further. One example:
Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
How concerned are you of this?This has been a concern for many years. Impact of solar activity on communications and the electric grid are known concerns.
There are multiple sources that can help explain further. One example:
Homepage | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Hello. How much of a concern is this? A solar storm causing power outage bc of a cme. I heard it may happen in the next decade including in 2025. The video details more and this is a problem concerning everyone.
View: https://youtu.be/-QwiAiDRavw
If the Internet does go down for months, there will almost certainly be serious supply disruptions for important things like food. Too much of distribution and shipping arrangements use the Internet.
The linked website is silly, making it sound like the vital element lost is mainly to personal entertainment.
The linked website is silly, making it sound like the vital element lost is mainly to personal entertainment.
Calculating the risk is difficult, because we have little experience with detecting these types of events, and even less with seeing how modern technological infrastructure is really affected.
Considering that the Carrington Event would have created havoc, and that happened in 1859, there have now been 164 years since something that big has happened to Earth. So, the risk per year seems to be less than 1/164 = 0.006 (0.6%).
But, there could be less troubles from lesser events that are more frequent. There have already been some electrical outages in small regions for something like a day due to solar storms. That prompted electric utilities to take precautions and make plans, already.
But, people have a hard time committing resources to "what if" types of hazards, so I doubt that any of our systems are CME-proof. At least NASA has been developing the ability to monitor the sun's ejection activity and make predictions a few days ahead. That will allow folks to execute plans to protect infrastructures if they have made those plans and they are adequate. NASA's data will also eventually provide a way to calculate frequency of CMEs of various levels hitting Earth as a function of the Sun's solar cycles, but it will take some time to do that.
I expect that we will not get the "big one" first, so hopefully we will get something big enough to motivate people to harden the infrastructure where a lesser event shows inadequate preparation before the big one occurs, and we will be ready for the big one when it does eventually hit us. (The probability that none will ever hit us is probably close to zero over a long enough time period.)
But, I am not losing any sleep over this risk, maybe because I am less vulnerable than people who have not prepared for blizzards and hurricanes.
Considering that the Carrington Event would have created havoc, and that happened in 1859, there have now been 164 years since something that big has happened to Earth. So, the risk per year seems to be less than 1/164 = 0.006 (0.6%).
But, there could be less troubles from lesser events that are more frequent. There have already been some electrical outages in small regions for something like a day due to solar storms. That prompted electric utilities to take precautions and make plans, already.
But, people have a hard time committing resources to "what if" types of hazards, so I doubt that any of our systems are CME-proof. At least NASA has been developing the ability to monitor the sun's ejection activity and make predictions a few days ahead. That will allow folks to execute plans to protect infrastructures if they have made those plans and they are adequate. NASA's data will also eventually provide a way to calculate frequency of CMEs of various levels hitting Earth as a function of the Sun's solar cycles, but it will take some time to do that.
I expect that we will not get the "big one" first, so hopefully we will get something big enough to motivate people to harden the infrastructure where a lesser event shows inadequate preparation before the big one occurs, and we will be ready for the big one when it does eventually hit us. (The probability that none will ever hit us is probably close to zero over a long enough time period.)
But, I am not losing any sleep over this risk, maybe because I am less vulnerable than people who have not prepared for blizzards and hurricanes.
Nuclear EMP would come with no warning. The most severe areas, up to a third of the US would have shorted out substation transformers, recovery time many years.
Solar EMP gives two or three days notice. We will know in time to batten down satellites. Many will be destroyed, all affected short term. The electrical grid would overload slowly enough for the breakers to trip. I don't know how high the voltages would get, perhaps enough to bypass the breakers. Downtime might range from hours to years.
I have food, ammo, supplies for about three months. Beyond that, who knows.
Solar EMP gives two or three days notice. We will know in time to batten down satellites. Many will be destroyed, all affected short term. The electrical grid would overload slowly enough for the breakers to trip. I don't know how high the voltages would get, perhaps enough to bypass the breakers. Downtime might range from hours to years.
I have food, ammo, supplies for about three months. Beyond that, who knows.
Maybe a little off topic but it was recently reported the Mastcams on the Mars rover Perseverance have detected a large sunspot on the far side of the sun. The story went it could impact Earth if it remained active once it turned past the East limb of the sun and faced Earth. Helioseismology at the moment might indicate otherwise however....
......My question is does anyone know how to calibrate the length of time for sunspots to traverse the sun from the perspective of the Mars cameras and what is the orientation of the pics that we are seeing.
Regards Terra
......My question is does anyone know how to calibrate the length of time for sunspots to traverse the sun from the perspective of the Mars cameras and what is the orientation of the pics that we are seeing.
Regards Terra
A spot takes about 27 days to go all the way around the Sun. From any observation point, be it Earth or Mars, it will take about two weeks to cross the face.
Thirteen and a half days sure, as an approximation though this varies with latitude. I was wondering whether it was possible to know through the camera position if it was possible to accurately determine the sunspot location in the pics. That is whether the view of the sun is the same that we see from SDO albeit on the earth facing side as it is when we look at the Mars pic. I did read the two views will be more aligned in the coming months. I hope I make myself clear 
Terra
Terra
There is no alignment data on the picture I saw. I went through the raw Perseverance images at NASA and could only find one Sun picture, real fuzzy.
This is part of a featured story in Live Science abouf 30 days ago.
Perseverance's view of the sun's far side will actually improve in the coming months as Mars becomes even more aligned with the side of the sun hidden from Earth, which will help the robot to track increasingly powerful storms. However, the rover will likely be unable to assist us during some of the peak months of the solar maximum.
So it seems as Mars continues to orbit the sun it will reach its optimum point of alignment and afterwards this alignment will decrease as Mars continues on its orbital path. I guess as a rough rule you could divide the fov by 27 and call each section one half of a day, probably narrowing the vertical lines approaching the limbs. Does it make sense?
Perseverance's view of the sun's far side will actually improve in the coming months as Mars becomes even more aligned with the side of the sun hidden from Earth, which will help the robot to track increasingly powerful storms. However, the rover will likely be unable to assist us during some of the peak months of the solar maximum.
So it seems as Mars continues to orbit the sun it will reach its optimum point of alignment and afterwards this alignment will decrease as Mars continues on its orbital path. I guess as a rough rule you could divide the fov by 27 and call each section one half of a day, probably narrowing the vertical lines approaching the limbs. Does it make sense?
Similar threads
TRENDING THREADS
-
-
A video made by me about space and the loneliness in the universe- Started by drakotol
- Replies: 54
-
NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft finally phones home after 5 months of no contact
- Started by Admin
- Replies: 11
-
-
-
Watch 2 gorgeous supernova remnants evolve over 20 years (timelapse video)
- Started by Admin
- Replies: 0
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram