Space Predictions for 2006

mattblack · Jan 3, 2006

You should know by now that the ISS will probably never be finished, except by private industry taking up the slack to add inflatable modules or somesuch. Time will tell so watch this space, as it were. What do I REALLY think of ISS? Before the Clinton administration started fully roping in the Russians for the umpteenth re-design, the Russians themselves (I think it was Valery Ryumin and some others) suggested; "Why don't we just build a new Mir and you guys (U.S., ESA and NASDA) can each add one pressurised module and a couple solar arrays, and we'll have a good space station". Ryumin said: "The Americans spent $10 billion dollars doing paper studies and building lots of wooden mockups -- just think what we (Russia) could have built with that money?!" This was told to me in 1996 by a senior Khrunichev Engineer, when I interviewed him via translator at JSC. The configuration Ryumin hinted at is NOT MUCH MORE than what ISS is NOW. So, we're nearly there. I think Mike Griffin will eventually offer to launch the basic, bare and unfitted-out Columbus and Kibo modules for ESA and NASDA, after Shuttle crews have installed a couple more trusses, solar arrays and Node 2. Then, they'll probably declare ISS as complete as possible after only about 11 or 12 Shuttle flights. NOT the 30 missions and $60 billion+plus figures guys like Orrery keep claiming. Japan and Europe will probably have to send up equipment and fittings to their modules themselves, halving the number of U.S. Shuttle flights and saving America billions. The devil is in the details, Orrery: Do some research and asking around, that way you can feel free to condemn the ISS from a position of knowledge, not the stick-fingers-in-ears and go "NYAH, NYAH, NOT LISTENING" position of ignorance. What guys like you dont understand, WONT understand is that if you kill Shuttle and especially ISS RIGHT NOW, you will do irreperable damage to the biggest manned spaceflight infrastructure <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America CAN Afford it!! LEO is a Prison -- It's time for a JAILBREAK!! </div>

tomnackid · Jan 3, 2006

I'm not going to pamper you like your mommy and lie to you and tell you everything is just great and super because the world is working together to build a worthless piece of junk. Anyone who tries to put rose-colored glasses on the ISS is lying to you and they are the true A-holes that any sane and rational person should be concerned about. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- /*deleted*/

josh_simonson · Jan 3, 2006

ISS has been pretty worthless so far, with the current shuttle problems the science modules are grounded and the crew was reduced from 3 to a skeleton crew of 2. If russia wasn't so big on the "never again will there not be humans in space" romance we'd probably have mothballed it until the shuttle was back online. Personally, I'd like to see the international community get behind the lunar and martian exploration plan and offer to develop some of the stuff that ESAS has in the "would be nice" category, such as a fuel depot, drydock, SEP cargo tugs and ISRU modules. Perhaps ISS could be stripped down and converted to a fuel depot at the end of it's life - 6 shuttle loads of trusses and solar panels shouldn't be dumped in the ocean. Once the (by then) dingy and obsolete habitation modules are scrapped, the power truss could be re-positioned to an orbit that's useful for beyone LEO staging, and a more useful, focused station built there. Learning from the ISS, gating items should be redundant to ensure timely execution.

mattblack · Jan 3, 2006

To shift the ISS to a more useful orbit, as you put it, would require at least a couple loads of propellant that only a SDHLV could lift. Ironic, isn't it. OR: attach a big SEP-tug to the ISS to gradually shift it! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America CAN Afford it!! LEO is a Prison -- It's time for a JAILBREAK!! </div>

yurkin · Jan 4, 2006

I always loved the ISS. Most of the problems with it come form poor planning and a lack of funding to begin with. There was also the near meltdown of the RSA during the nineties. The current problems with the shuttle have also affected it. All of these problems were not the fault of the station. Saying that’s its useless doesn’t seem to make any sense unless you’re the type of person that thinks all of space program is useless. Every day its in operation is an enormous accomplishment.

mattblack · Jan 4, 2006

>>Every day its in operation is an enormous accomplishment.<< Yes! That's what so many don't understand, although I don't love the ISS, I have enormous respect for the people who build and run it.. When I was growing up, I thought that Skylab and Salyut were pretty cool, and looked forward to the day their accomplishments would be bettered. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America CAN Afford it!! LEO is a Prison -- It's time for a JAILBREAK!! </div>

subzero788 · Jan 4, 2006

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />...China is still flying Mercury-level capsules...<hr /></blockquote> Actually the Shenzhou is far superior to the Mercury capsule. For a start it can carry 3 crew rather than one, it has seperate orbital and re-entry modules (with there own maneuvering engines), it is built for 6 months in orbit and will soon be able to preform docking manuvers, unlike the relatively simple "tin-can" Mercury (not to take anything away from the acheivements of the Mercury program of course!).

mattblack · Jan 4, 2006

More of a "Soyuz on steroids". <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America CAN Afford it!! LEO is a Prison -- It's time for a JAILBREAK!! </div>

tomnackid · Jan 4, 2006

Just a little question for our moderator. Why did you delete my replies to orrey21 but left his which use the same language and contain personal attacks?

nolirogari · Jan 4, 2006

"Actually the Shenzhou is far superior to the Mercury capsule" 100% true- it is the best vehicle that red China could steal... err.. copy... err...learn from... err... mimic... okay make on their own... but it just looks like a Soyuz on Viagra. Another prediction for 2006... China's manned spaceflight system will get its first test of its launch escape system.

frodo1008 · Jan 4, 2006

May all ISS promoters and propagandists die a long and terrible death. I am sorry, but if the mods have affectively removed Gaet from this site, they should now have the guts to remove orerry21 from the site ALSO!!!! NO $%^%&** should be able to get away with making this kind of a statement regardless of his cause on this site. Even the worst of the unltra conservatives over on free space has (at least to my knowledge at any rate, and I do post over there also as you well know) ever said this even about the hated "Liberals", or for that matter the other way areound!!! There IS no excuse for posting such a statement! If you don't get this character off of these boards, or he dosen't make an abject appoligy for making such statements, then I shall continue to post on this subject until you either ban me or you DO YOUR JOB!!! Besides to make a statement that cancelling the funding for the ISS (and incidently the STS) will somehow result in the CEV flying by the end of this year is the height of some kind of total ignorance!! Even Gaet would know better!!

drwayne · Jan 4, 2006

I am working on it. Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything." Admiral Jackie Fisher </div>

frodo1008 · Jan 4, 2006

I too, grow very tired of this kind of thing (not the moderators themselves, who I do at least hope will take some action here), but the incredibly bad manners of orerry21!! Orerry21 has shown that he absolutely has NOTHING worthwhile to contribute to these threads! Most of us that have supported both the STS and ISS have already stated many of the problems with both of these systems (problems that I am just as certain that NASA is already well aware of!). We are not always happy ourselves with the problems! But, the more this character makes his attacks, (and now it has gotten so bad that he is taking to making direct attacks on other posters as well) the more defensive we become, it is a never ending cycle!! Not only this, but the really silly thing about it is that his position is no more being supported by those with the real power over these areas that is Gaet's!! Congress has already made it clear that if NASA wants further funding for CEV and going back to the moon, then NASA is obliged to not only fly the shuttles (for the limited time of up to 2010 at the latest), but is also obligated to finish the ISS with at the very least all the hardware that lies finished, but not yet launched at the Cape!! Otherwise, the money spent on this hardware (and it is billions) would indeed be a waste! So all or orerry's ranting and raving is really just so much moot hot air!! Oc course, if the shuttle is unable to do this then some other plan will have to be worked out! In such a case he might in some degree actually get a part of his wish, with the shuttles not only grounded, but even cancelled, then NASA would then have to concentrate on the CEV alone. However, one of the first jobs of the CEV (probably in concert with at least EELV launches of such hardware as could be launched on such vehicles) would then BE to complete the ISS as we have always said we would do!

frodo1008 · Jan 4, 2006

GOOD!! Please continue to do so!!!

tplank · Jan 4, 2006

As an active participant over the years in many web communities, let me offer my two cents. I think that an open posting policy always works out best. There are some rare exceptions where a poster is really abusive but I think that is very rare. When the dialog is free wheeling, opinions tend to be more freely expressed and the dialog is more natural and relaxed. Over-moderation tends to stifle even when it is done carefully and well. And I’m not suggesting anything at all about the moderation here: I am too ignorant to comment. I guess I prefer to just treat people as adults. There are idiots in every group of people and an on-line community is no different. We are free to ignore those we choose and the little old lady can rant all she want on the street corner. In the real world we deal with this quite easily and I think the virtual world should be no different. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The Disenfranchised Curmudgeonhttp://tonyplank.blogspot.com/ </div>

tap_sa · Jan 4, 2006

"I'd have black ops missions conduct assassinations on every U.N. official from Kofi Annan and down that maintains relations with the media and press." I thought GT set an unbreakable record how low user can go before banned but now that certain user is handing out death threats on every other post I must reconsider. Mods, please.

tomnackid · Jan 4, 2006

Just so everyone knows the score, I once disagreed with orrey21 on another thread and he started sending me personal messages telling my how "ignorant" and "stupid" I was. At the time I let it go and just told him to stop sending me personal messages or I would inform the moderators. Now I see that he is just as abusive and arrgnorant (i just made that up--it means "arrogant" yet at the same time "ignorant"--feel free to use it <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> ) as ever. The whole Geat?????? incident left a really bad taste in my mouth. Ignoring trolls and trollish behavior doesn't seam to work. Now I will confront rude ignorant behavior even if it means I get booted as well.

tomnackid · Jan 4, 2006

I have never sent, and don't have the slightest interest in sending unsolicited private massages over this board. (I have an actual life you see.) Lets ask the the rest of the thread to decide who they think is lying and who is telling the truth.

tomnackid · Jan 4, 2006

A private message copied from my in box to me from orrey21 after disagreeing with him on another thread a few months back: /* deleted */ As I said I have absolutely no interest in sending private massages to anyone here--in fact I wasn't even aware of this feature until orrey21 started sending me them!! I am a 41 year old graphic artist and scientific illustrator with a wife and two children. I have no interest in or time to initiate private mesages to anyone, much less Space.com trolls

drwayne · Jan 4, 2006

All right, everybody stop right now. Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything." Admiral Jackie Fisher </div>

aleph_null · Jan 4, 2006

Lock the thread.

mattblack · Jan 4, 2006

>>Derogatory arrogance, unfounded, unauthoritative. I already do possess such knowledge.<< Yeah. Right. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America CAN Afford it!! LEO is a Prison -- It's time for a JAILBREAK!! </div>

nolirogari · Jan 4, 2006

Gee... I went to space.com and a hockey game broke out

CalliArcale · Jan 4, 2006

FYI, folks, please do not repost private messages publicly without the author's express permission. If you have a complaint that someone has been sending you offensive things in private messages, by all means, send a PM to one or more of us and we'll get involved. But don't post it publicly. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff." -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink" </div>

drwayne · Jan 4, 2006

That can't be me! (1) I am not falling down and (2) As an honors graduate of the "Henry Blake School of Decision Making" - I am not decisive enough for that role. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything." Admiral Jackie Fisher </div>

Space Predictions for 2006

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