Space Predictions for 2006

[frodo1008]

I am not sure why I would even attempt to answer someone like yourself here, perhaps I am just a masochist at heart! The problem comes about when I go over to read your rather impressive profile, and see that you actually do have some education and possible experience in this field. IF you were being truthful! But as I tend to try to see the best in people, (unlike your own posts, which put out nothing but total negativity against anyone that doesn’t even just agree with you) so I will believe you!!<br /><br />So here is just exactly what you posted earlier:<br /><br /><font color="yellow"> Greenest Grass for 2006: <br /><br />Two worthless shuttle flights.. <br /><br />or <br /><br />Complete CEV. <br />Rotate ISS crew using CEV. <br />Cancel $60,000,000,000 worth of funds for "expanding" the ISS beyond its current size. <br />Speed up development of SDHLV, Moon, Martian Mission architecture, use Inflatable Module approach and construct lighter, cheaper, space station, and build a new space plane.</font><br /><br />Now, having actually worked on the manufacture, engineering, and quality assurance of the rocket engines that have powered almost every space vehicle the US has launched from Mercury through the Space Shuttle, I find these statements to be somewhat lacking in practical details!! What you seem to be saying (and as long as I have to put up with your attacks, I might as well attempt to at least get some intelligent clarification from you!) is that by immediately grounding the space shuttle and killing ALL funding for the ISS at this time, we could finish the CEV to a point where it could be used to rotate crews to the ISS by the end of this year!! Ironically, IF we were to kill all such funding for the ISS, then why would we then wish to even bother to rotate such crews by ANY method at all at any time in the future? You might just be thought to contradict yourself here a little bit!<br /><br />Also, the only expansion of the ISS that is currently be even c

 

[tomnackid]

Very good post frodo. I think a lot o people don't realize that money saved by canceling all work on ISS will not automatically go into other NASA programs.

 

[drwayne]

I understand that, and have said the same thing on a number of threads.<br /><br />I also understand the more optimisitic among us who think - "Gosh darn it, we can MAKE congress do what we want!"<br /><br />Now, I personally think thats like herding cats, but a big part of me wishes fervently to be wrong.<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>"1) Give no quarter; 2) Take no prisoners; 3) Sink everything."  Admiral Jackie Fisher</p> </div>

 

[tomnackid]

The majority can (sometimes) make congress do what they want. The wealthy can (usually) make congress do what they want. Neither term describes the typical space enthusiast! I'm afraid that the vast majority of Americans don't care one way or the other what happens to ISS or the manned space program (sigh). <br /><br />If I knew for a fact that funding cut from ISS would go towards the exploration and settlement of the moon or mars or to developing low cost access to space, or towards exploiting space resources I would be in favor of it--despite the cost to our foreign relations. Unfortunately it seems very unlikely that any money saved would go to NASA (or anyone involved in space exploration). If ISS is cancelled its back to the negotiating table for NASA. AT THE VERY LEAST the ISS keeps manned space flight alive and active--yes the cost is far to high but hey, welcome to the real world. <br /><br />And, why does everyone assume that NASA funding is some immutable law of nature? Congress somehow found a way to funnel NASA' annual budget into Iraq every month--without tax increases! Obviously its not a matter of lack of money, its a matter of lack of interest. All in all I think abandoning the ISS will ultimately do more harm than good to the space program (I can see the headlines now "Another NASA Failure!")<br /><br />But this is kinda off topic. I think we all should apologize to kdavis007 for hijacking his thread. Sorry.

 

[mlorrey]

Well, frodo, if you promise that the ISS budget would go into deficit reduction, I have to say "Kill it". The only reason I support the socialist manned program in this country is I'd rather the money go there than into welfare for unproductive people, and I doubt the honesty of politicians to actually reduce the deficit.

 

[kdavis007]

Exactly.. The money will be taken from NASA to other programs if the ISS has been cancelled...

 

[kdavis007]

The day that politicans from any party actually lowers the deficit and cut some worthless programs is when hell freezes over..

 

[josh_simonson]

The low interest rates for the last few years have allowed the govt to increase government debt while keeping payments the same. It's exactly the same as folks running up house prices. Rising interest rates will help to sour the appeal of running a big deficit.<br /><br />I've always said that government is an evolutionary descendant of organized crime, that keeps things in perspective. Some countries government has evolved farther from it's roots than others...

 

[centsworth_II]

At least one Mars rover will still be going at the end of the year. Hooray for the MER mission -- providing the most sustained excitement for the past TWO years! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[frodo1008]

Strangely enough most of us on these boards that support the manned efforts of NASA also fully support the robotical efforts. However, it must be remembered that robotic efforts are not a replacement for manned efforts, but a very great enabler of those same manned efforts! <br /><br />If we are going to truly expliot the resources of space we are going to need the help of a very large number of construction and manufacturing robots as well as pure exploration robots!! Also, one of the items that is going to be needed before men set foot on Mars is a great deal more information about where that foot is going to be set! <br /><br />This will require far more and sophisticated robots (including sample return, and even aerial survey craft). NASA may even trim some projects, but I can think of no large cuts in this side of NASA in the future. And I also believe that pure private interests will be taking the lead in using the resources of the moon, and even NEO's with their use of not only men as controllers, but large groups of construction and manufacturing robots. There is no other way that we ar going to truly form an eventual space based civilization!! This is also one of the main areas of research for the ISS!!

 

[mlorrey]

I think the robotic efforts are essential in encouraging more manned exploration. Seeing what is really there, up close, is IMHO more of an encouragement to actually going there than never seeing those sights at all. If people never see what there is to see, it is far easier to dismiss the case for space exploration. Thus, things like Hubble and the Mars Rovers are essential marketing tools for manned exploration.

 

[priusguy]

<b>LOOK: The ISS has already been scaled down to about 75% percent or less of what it was going to be, although some good science should still get done. Surely these facts should give you succor?</b><br /><br />Keyword is "should". No science worth mentioning was done aboard ISS yet, and not likely to get done in the future. With a three-person crew it simply CAN NOT be done -- their entire time is taken up by maintenance and repair. When (<b>IF</b> is a much better word) ISS is ever completed, it will have room for more people -- and that's exactly when US plans to leave it. So no, "good science" done aboard ISS does not give me succor.<br /><br /><b>Von Braun was right: We need space infrastructure in every arena, even Earth Orbit.</b><br /><br />Very true, and ISS is a wrong configuration and in a wrong orbit to be a part of such infrastructure.<br /><br />Give the damn thing to the Russians to use as a tourist hotel* -- since we so helpfully put it into Baikonur-accessible and otherwise useless orbit, -- and call for COMPETITIVE BIDS for a platform optimized as a waystation to Moon and beyond. In Moon's orbital plane, to start with.<br /><br />*Mattblack: you say manned spaceflight has great inspirational value. If Russia concentrates on flying tourists to ISS without pretending anything else, it may well serve as MORE inspiration to <i>Americans</i> than three "Right Stuff" pilots making IMAX movies. "Hey! I could <i>earn</i> my way into space!"

 

[nacnud]

There is a six year difference between ISS complete in 2010 and the supposed US withdrawl in 2016. There are timetabled to be over thirty CLV flights carrying variouse flavours of CEV in that time.

 

[ragnorak]

<br />You assume that the last shuttle flight will mean the end of construction. The CLV will be able to lift 20+ tonnes and the heavy lift launcher far more. I think we could see additional ISS assembly beyond 2010. Mir lasted much longer than its intended life span and I think ISS could last ito the 2020s.<br />

 

[Leovinus]

I predict that more foam will fall off an ET during an upcoming flight and the shuttle will be grounded again, maybe for good. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[nacnud]

<br /><font color="yellow">You assume that the last shuttle flight will mean the end of construction.<br /><br /><font color="white">Yep because there are currently no plans for a CLV or CaLV launched module. I'm not saying it can't be done, just that it's not on the cards yet.</font></font>

 

[cuddlyrocket]

Something unanticipated will happen.

 

[tomnackid]

"Something unanticipated will happen."<br />---------------------------------------------------<br /><br />That's the thing about the unanticipated--you can always expect it!

 

[grooble]

Yeah, that hyperdrive thing came out of nowhere. I've always held a belief that, somewhere, sometime a little know scientist or team of scientists is going to create something so revolutionary that it'd turn global politics and economics on its head in awe and wonder and positive ways, that out of nowhere, solutions would present themselves to our biggest problems.<br /><br />

 

[henryhallam]

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for that warp drive. It is only "New Scientist", after all.

 

[frodo1008]

How dangerous do you think it would be for mankind to have the ability to actually control gravity!<br /><br />Look at our record so far with nuclear physics!<br /><br />I can just see it now, "You know Mr. President we could give a small demonstration to these insugents by just floating one of their main cities off into space!"<br /><br />This is done, and the result is either that they have to bring it back (creating even more deaths) or there is this big hole in the atmosphere for the Earth's atmosphere to steadily leak out into space!! Thus killing us all!!<br /><br />No thank you, let us leave such power to GOD!!

 

[nolirogari]

Then again- control of gravity could go the other way... The words "Theam Park" come to mind. Forget the government... look to Disney.