SpaceX to build a BFR

[vt_hokie]

<i>I've been following SpaceX since I was a first year at Wharton in 2002. Mr Musk is afterall an alum from my school and I've been very excited about having someone with a credible business background enter the space industry with a credible program.</i><br /><br />So, is that where you've gotta go to school in order to make real money? <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> I love Philly, but I don't know if I could get accepted there...<br /><br /><i>Reading his latest press release, his unnecessary use of profanities is followed by an ominous statement. He says that he has invested more cash into the company than he intended, and that he does not intend to continue pouring cash into SpaceX. Yes, he does mention that he is looking at alternatives for cash. However, if the founder is looking to cap his exposure, will future investors take a risk?</i><br /><br />I hope that SpaceX is successful, but I'm sure the ex-Kistler folks won't shed too many tears if SpaceX follows in their footsteps, given that Musk had a hand in Kistler's demise! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[vt_hokie]

<i>I've been following SpaceX since I was a first year at Wharton in 2002. Mr Musk is afterall an alum from my school and I've been very excited about having someone with a credible business background enter the space industry with a credible program.</i><br /><br />So, is that where you've gotta go to school in order to make real money? <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> I love Philly, but I don't know if I could get accepted there...<br /><br /><i>Reading his latest press release, his unnecessary use of profanities is followed by an ominous statement. He says that he has invested more cash into the company than he intended, and that he does not intend to continue pouring cash into SpaceX. Yes, he does mention that he is looking at alternatives for cash. However, if the founder is looking to cap his exposure, will future investors take a risk?</i><br /><br />I hope that SpaceX is successful, but I'm sure the ex-Kistler folks won't shed too many tears if SpaceX follows in their footsteps, given that Musk had a hand in Kistler's demise! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[j05h]

>I hope that SpaceX is successful, but I'm sure the ex-Kistler folks won't shed too many tears if SpaceX follows in their footsteps, given that Musk had a hand in Kistler's demise!<br /><br />VT, can you elaborate? What did Elon or SpaceX have to do with Kistler's (15th) demise? I know he testified a while ago to a Congressional commitee, what transpired? Kistler shouldn't do any complaining, they simply won't die as an organization - they've had the K1 "75% complete" since 1999!<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[j05h]

>I hope that SpaceX is successful, but I'm sure the ex-Kistler folks won't shed too many tears if SpaceX follows in their footsteps, given that Musk had a hand in Kistler's demise!<br /><br />VT, can you elaborate? What did Elon or SpaceX have to do with Kistler's (15th) demise? I know he testified a while ago to a Congressional commitee, what transpired? Kistler shouldn't do any complaining, they simply won't die as an organization - they've had the K1 "75% complete" since 1999!<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[vt_hokie]

As I understand it, he basically raised a stink about NASA awarding a contract to Kistler for ISS resupply, causing NASA to ultimately rescind that contract.

 

[vt_hokie]

As I understand it, he basically raised a stink about NASA awarding a contract to Kistler for ISS resupply, causing NASA to ultimately rescind that contract.

 

[josh_simonson]

It isn't neccesarially over-eagerness that's resulting in him disclosing the larger launch vehicles. He's fighting for contracts 5 and 10 years down the road, which are being decided now. To a large extent, he's already got credibility in that his rocket is fully built and ready to go. Kilstler and Beal never got that far. The Falcon 9 series was announced so that he could sue lockmart and boeing over their launch alliance with the EELVs, he needed an EELV class rocket to take issue with that, and had to tip his hand regarding his long term plans to do so. <br /><br />To me, his main risk right now is that he may not be able to deliver the rockets at the prices he's quoted and make a reasonable profit on the venture. If he's still cutting falcon 1 contracts at the same price in 1 year with a few successful launches under his belt, people will take seriously his published prices for the larger rockets. Falcon 1 profits can pay for Falcon 9 development and testing if he has a decent margin - and the Falcon 5 and 9 should be less complecated to build since most of the components are already flightworthy on falcon 1.<br /><br />Now, regarding the BFR. NASA is going to design the SD-HLV, but recent events have highlighted the weakness of putting all their eggs in one basket. If a backup can be had cheaply, they'll throw some buisness it's way to keep it alive as a backup to the prefered (in house) HLV in the event of a grounding. But to do this, Elon needs to build his HLV so that it is cargo and capability compatable with the SDHLV to allow for the BFR to stand-in for the SDHLV with minimal time and expense. Talking about a BFR now is a message to NASA that they can have a HLV backup if they're willing to throw some launches his way, and an invitation to collaborate to some extent to gurantee interoperability - which will have to start soon as the SDHLV and BFR are already starting to evolve in CAD-space.

 

[josh_simonson]

It isn't neccesarially over-eagerness that's resulting in him disclosing the larger launch vehicles. He's fighting for contracts 5 and 10 years down the road, which are being decided now. To a large extent, he's already got credibility in that his rocket is fully built and ready to go. Kilstler and Beal never got that far. The Falcon 9 series was announced so that he could sue lockmart and boeing over their launch alliance with the EELVs, he needed an EELV class rocket to take issue with that, and had to tip his hand regarding his long term plans to do so. <br /><br />To me, his main risk right now is that he may not be able to deliver the rockets at the prices he's quoted and make a reasonable profit on the venture. If he's still cutting falcon 1 contracts at the same price in 1 year with a few successful launches under his belt, people will take seriously his published prices for the larger rockets. Falcon 1 profits can pay for Falcon 9 development and testing if he has a decent margin - and the Falcon 5 and 9 should be less complecated to build since most of the components are already flightworthy on falcon 1.<br /><br />Now, regarding the BFR. NASA is going to design the SD-HLV, but recent events have highlighted the weakness of putting all their eggs in one basket. If a backup can be had cheaply, they'll throw some buisness it's way to keep it alive as a backup to the prefered (in house) HLV in the event of a grounding. But to do this, Elon needs to build his HLV so that it is cargo and capability compatable with the SDHLV to allow for the BFR to stand-in for the SDHLV with minimal time and expense. Talking about a BFR now is a message to NASA that they can have a HLV backup if they're willing to throw some launches his way, and an invitation to collaborate to some extent to gurantee interoperability - which will have to start soon as the SDHLV and BFR are already starting to evolve in CAD-space.

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">As I understand it, he basically raised a stink about NASA awarding a contract to Kistler for ISS resupply</font>/i><br /><br />IIRC, it was a sole-source, no-bid contract to Kistler. If I was a competitor, I would raise a stink too.</i>

 

[radarredux]

> <i><font color="yellow">As I understand it, he basically raised a stink about NASA awarding a contract to Kistler for ISS resupply</font>/i><br /><br />IIRC, it was a sole-source, no-bid contract to Kistler. If I was a competitor, I would raise a stink too.</i>

 

[tap_sa]

IIRC at that time SpaceX wouldn't have even qualified to compete the contract, and they still don't.

 

[tap_sa]

IIRC at that time SpaceX wouldn't have even qualified to compete the contract, and they still don't.

 

[nacnud]

Wasn't the Kistler contract for instrumentation on a reusable launch vehicle? If so the first stage of the Falcon I is reusable as are the entire Falcon V and IX (though I've no idea how they are to do this). Perhaps they could have competed for the contract. The problem was no one apart from Kistler was asked.

 

[nacnud]

Wasn't the Kistler contract for instrumentation on a reusable launch vehicle? If so the first stage of the Falcon I is reusable as are the entire Falcon V and IX (though I've no idea how they are to do this). Perhaps they could have competed for the contract. The problem was no one apart from Kistler was asked.

 

[tap_sa]

Again IIRC the contract was multiple steps ending up with rendezvouz at ISS. AFAIK none of the Falcons can do that, they are boosters, not spacecrafts.

 

[tap_sa]

Again IIRC the contract was multiple steps ending up with rendezvouz at ISS. AFAIK none of the Falcons can do that, they are boosters, not spacecrafts.

 

[chriscdc]

According to the website they have contracts for the falcon 9, so it isn't merely an excuse for Elon to sue lockmart and boeing. It also seemes to be a longshot to sue a company for a monopoly when you haven't even built the product that would be challenging said monopoly.

 

[chriscdc]

According to the website they have contracts for the falcon 9, so it isn't merely an excuse for Elon to sue lockmart and boeing. It also seemes to be a longshot to sue a company for a monopoly when you haven't even built the product that would be challenging said monopoly.

 

[crix]

BF-designs and BF-talk aside, don't you all think that the Falcon I has a very good chance of success? I do...

 

[crix]

BF-designs and BF-talk aside, don't you all think that the Falcon I has a very good chance of success? I do...

 

[josh_simonson]

Yup. The main place where they can go wrong is with the avionics - with all the engine tests they've run I think we can be assured it won't kato, but so far their avionics have only flown simulated rockets.

 

[josh_simonson]

Yup. The main place where they can go wrong is with the avionics - with all the engine tests they've run I think we can be assured it won't kato, but so far their avionics have only flown simulated rockets.

 

[CalliArcale]

Simulations can show a lot, but you're right, josh -- the proof is in the pudding, and sims aren't that. Just look at Ariane 5. Magnificent rocket, but it's original avionics software had a bug that didn't show up because the simulations were run using Ariane 4 data, and Ariane 4 didn't accelerate as fast. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[CalliArcale]

Simulations can show a lot, but you're right, josh -- the proof is in the pudding, and sims aren't that. Just look at Ariane 5. Magnificent rocket, but it's original avionics software had a bug that didn't show up because the simulations were run using Ariane 4 data, and Ariane 4 didn't accelerate as fast. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p><font color="#666699"><em>"People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect, but actually from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint it's more like a big ball of wibbly wobbly . . . timey wimey . . . stuff."</em>  -- The Tenth Doctor, "Blink"</font></p> </div>

 

[josh_simonson]

>1. Launch the first rocket. <br /><br />Already paid for and ready to go. And they're getting 6.5M for their trouble..<br /><br /> />2. Make plans for the second rocket <br /><br />Which is already built and will receive another 6.5m payment...<br /><br /> />3. Get contracts in line to fund further development <br /><br />Which already exist, check their launch manifest. <br /><br /> />4. Rutan thinks that it will cost $400 million to develop a CXV. Rutan is smarter then Musk....when it comes to rockets...... <br /><br />Rutan's never designed a rocket in his life. He bought an off the shelf engine and stuck it in a small airplane with manual controls. That's it. He doesn't know anything about liquid rockets, hypersonic flight, or computer controlled avionics. Anyway, a CXV type vehicle is way down the line in SpaceX' plans, though a CXV by another supplier may ride on his rockets.<br />