"Super Comet: After the Impact" -- What did you think?

[willpittenger]

The Discovery Channel just aired a two hour show called <i>Super Comet: After the Impact</i>. What did you think?<br /><br />Basic Plot (if you haven't seen it, skip this): The writers took the comet that wiped out the dinosaurs and put into today's timeline. Same location. Same basic event. However, in the same vein as their Supervolcano show from a year or two ago, they mixed in some drama to "show how our society would react." Personally, I think the fiction part was a mistake in both shows. All it did for me was provide a poorly written distraction. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

...where would you explode it relative to the comet? There are six basic possible positions. Four are relative to the viewpoint of someone standing on Earth's North Pole. Those directions are:<li>In front -- slow the comet down<li>In back -- speed the comet up<li>To the left -- cause the comet to miss behind the Earth<li>To the right -- cause the comet to miss in front of the Earth<li>Above the comet -- cause the comet to miss low<li>Below the comet -- cause the comet to miss high<br /><br />Note: From what I heard, you do not want a surface detonation. Rather, you should detonate the warhead some distance away. So, having chosen your direction, how far away do you put the warhead?<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Please reply to this branch only if you want to discuss where to put the warhead. To discuss the show, please reply to the original post or another reply of that.</li></li></li></li></li></li> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[derekmcd]

Uninspiring ratings grabber. If you missed it, you really didn't miss it. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div> </div><br /><div><span style="color:#0000ff" class="Apple-style-span">"If something's hard to do, then it's not worth doing." - Homer Simpson</span></div> </div>

 

[derekmcd]

We would have to know the angle of impact before making that decision. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div> </div><br /><div><span style="color:#0000ff" class="Apple-style-span">"If something's hard to do, then it's not worth doing." - Homer Simpson</span></div> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

<font color="yellow"> In front -- slow the comet down </font><br /><br /> I'm the ambitious type <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> I would want to slow it down in an attempt to capture it to a usable orbit. Something like a Lunar or Solar Lagrange point. In this scenario we save the Earth & get to mine the comet for it's volatiles. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

You could provide various scenarios. Besides, the angle might not be known until days before the impact. The warhead might have to go off well before that. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

The show mentioned above got me thinking about a book. In the book <i>Hammer of God</i> by Arthur C. Clarke, a gigaton warhead breaks a similar comet into two. One piece misses entirely. The other piece grazes the atmosphere above the South Pole. This causes that polar cap to melt.<br /><br />The question here is, just how close could a comet or asteroid get without causing something similar? Also, how much of the sky would it take up in the eyes of someone on the surface? How bright would such an object be? (The last assumes the Sun was not eclipsed.) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>I'm the ambitious type I would want to slow it down in an attempt to capture it to a usable orbit. Something like a Lunar or Solar Lagrange point. In this scenario we save the Earth & get to mine the comet for it's volatiles.<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br />You expect to be able to orbit the comet with just one warhead? Good luck. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[rubicondsrv]

why use 1 warhead when you have acces to thousands? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

There are probably around 15,000 ICBM's worldwide, we could use as many as was nessesary. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

And you get them to the comet how? <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[spaceinvador_old]

What are the chances of us locating the next killer comet to do something about it before it hits us? It's a big sky.

 

[MeteorWayne]

If an Oort cloud comet is heading toward us, it would be unlikely we would be able to do anything to alter it's course. They can come from any direction and are at very high velocity due to their near parabolic orbit.<br />So, by the time we detect them inside Jupiter's orbit, there's very little time to react.<br /><br />About 1% of Oort comets evolve into Halley types with Periods < 250 year, but these are less likely to sneak up on us. We have a good inventory (though certainly not complete) of these.<br /><br />Of lower risk are the Jupiter family comets, derived from the Kuiper belt, and like the asteroids, travel around the sun prograde, the same direction as we do. There are between 20 and 100 of these with perihelia < 1.3 AU at any time in the inner solar system. Only 13 have crossed the earth's orbit in recent centuries and we know where they are. Much like asteroids, once we detect and track them, we have plenty of time to react.<br />The orbits are less precise as you move into the future due to non-gravitaional effects, but we would know of any threat well in advance; there are none now.<br /><br />In conclusion, the largest threat comes from a surprise interloper from the Oort cloud, in which case, there would be very little we could do but prepare for the impact. The time constraints, and velocity changes required would preclude any effective action to prevent an impact.<br /><br />MW<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

I was talking about one because that was what was in the show. Besides, before you can use thousands, you have to get them there. Instead of one booster, you need thousands. Don't bother with ICBM boosters. We need more range. In order to intercept the target in time, you need to intercept out near the orbit of Jupiter.<br /><br />I should also point out that if you set off multiple warheads, each will have a different effect on the target because of the impending angles. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[pyoko]

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but arent comets 'soft and squishy'? Look at the huge dent we made with just a copper projectile in the last (first) comet intercept mission. Imagine what 5 - 10 nukes would do. The real problem are asteroids, isn't it? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p><span style="color:#ff9900" class="Apple-style-span">-pyoko</span> <span style="color:#333333" class="Apple-style-span">the</span> <span style="color:#339966" class="Apple-style-span">duck </span></p><p><span style="color:#339966" class="Apple-style-span"><span style="color:#808080;font-style:italic" class="Apple-style-span">It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.</span></span></p> </div>

 

[bdewoody]

Not exactly all are the same. And at their velocities it dont matter<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <em><font size="2">Bob DeWoody</font></em> </div>

 

[willpittenger]

Actually, some asteroids might react the same way. They are believed to be little more than rubble piles held together by their own gravity. Slam something into them, they just make room and tell the new object something like "Hello, Welcome to the pile." <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Will Pittenger<hr style="margin-top:0.5em;margin-bottom:0.5em" />Add this user box to your Wikipedia User Page to show your support for the SDC forums: <div style="margin-left:1em">{{User:Will Pittenger/User Boxes/Space.com Account}}</div> </div>

 

[pyoko]

Yes I did read about the asteroid made of a rubble of (faily large) rocks (ie. not snowy dust). In that asteroids case, I think an early enough explosion will dissipate the smaller rocks enough to either miss earth, or burn up in the atmosphere. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p> </p><p><span style="color:#ff9900" class="Apple-style-span">-pyoko</span> <span style="color:#333333" class="Apple-style-span">the</span> <span style="color:#339966" class="Apple-style-span">duck </span></p><p><span style="color:#339966" class="Apple-style-span"><span style="color:#808080;font-style:italic" class="Apple-style-span">It is by will alone I set my mind in motion.</span></span></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

We really don't know how big a crater we made on Tempel 1, because the crater was obscured by the dust. perhaps we will find out when we drive by in the next decade.<br /><br />"Stardust returns<br /><br />While the Flyby spacecraft heads off to a new comet, NASA's Stardust probe will actually revisit Deep Impact's Tempel 1 target.<br /><br />Originally launched in 1999, Stardust chased down the Comet Wild 2 (pronounced "Vilt 2") for a 2004 rendezvous that swung within 150 miles (241 kilometers) of the icy wanderer. A sample canister aboard Stardust caught tiny pieces of Wild 2 and returned them to Earth in January 2006 while the remainder of the probe continued on through space. <br /><br />Now the office desk-sized Stardust will perform the New Exploration of Tempel 1 (NExT) mission to take the first look at the comet after its innermost swing past the Sun. <br /><br />Stardust is due to swing past Tempel 1 in what will be the first ever follow-up comet rendezvous. The spacecraft's onboard instruments will continue mapping efforts for Tempel 1 and, researchers hope, shed new light on regions of the comet's nucleus that may have flowed like liquid or powder according to Deep Impact images. <br /><br />The NExT flyby past Tempel 1 is slated for Feb. 14, 2011. "<br /><br /><br /><br />Comets seem to vary in composition as much as asteroids do, so we cannot assume "soft and squishy" is the norm. <br /><br />Edited to add Stardust Details <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[nexium]

The decision is dependent on many variables. Suppose the comet is expected to hit Philidelphia at a 45 degree angle at 1 pm on Dec 21, 2007approaching from the South at 20 kilometers per second. If we increase the angle from vertical to 46 degrees, it may hit in the Catskill Mountains instead. If the original vector was plus or minus 8000 kilometers, our blast might convert a near miss to a hit. Neil

 

[derekmcd]

In either case, I question the effectiveness of using a nuclear warhead to deflect an asteroid or comet.<br /><br />I could be wrong here, but I don't think inter-planetary space has enough of a medium for the warhead to create a powerful concussive shockwave to bleed off a significant enough amount of energy of an asteroid that is cruising through space at 30+ km per hour.<br /><br />Especially, if we have to hit it head on. The closing speed of the 2 would nearly negate any impact.<br /><br />I hit a semi-truck with my car head on, I disintegrate and the semi continues on. Now, if I get in front of him travelling at the same speed and gradually apply my brakes, It might take a while, but I can have a lasting impact on that semi.<br /><br />We would either need to send up a very long series of warheads hitting it head on to slow it down enough that earth's orbit does it's job or somehow be able to send a few and be able to match the asteroids velocity in order to manipulate it's trajectory.<br /><br />In either case, unless we already have a plan in place with the supporting infrastructure ready to go at a moments notice, we are doomed. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div> </div><br /><div><span style="color:#0000ff" class="Apple-style-span">"If something's hard to do, then it's not worth doing." - Homer Simpson</span></div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Again, for an asteroid or short period comet where the impact is many orbits in the future, only a very small change in velocity is required for the object and the earth to not be at the same place at the same time.<br /><br />For an incoming Oort cloud comet, without years of warning time (which does not exist, only months) any attempt to alter the course or solidity of the incoming comet will be futile.<br /><br />Sorry, that's just the way it is. Physics is very insistent about these things. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[derekmcd]

Most certainly. Given enough time, us humans can be resilient.<br /><br />Still... it would be an undertaking that would require the resources of every nation capable of offering whatever resources they have available.<br /><br />In our current state, we would fail miserably. Zero infrastructure to conduct such a mission.<br /><br />Anything less than 10 years notice... we would be doomed. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div> </div><br /><div><span style="color:#0000ff" class="Apple-style-span">"If something's hard to do, then it's not worth doing." - Homer Simpson</span></div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Agreed.<br />It's one reason why the search for PHA (Potentially Threatening Asteroids) needs to go on post haste.<br />Once we find one with our number on it, motivation will increase very quickly <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[dragon04]

One thing I noticed was that the program's estimate of both the post-impact temperature of Earth's atmosphere, and the duration of those temperatures were wildly optimistic versus more science-oriented shows I've seen regarding large impactors.<br /><br />I didn't expect much; I'm not a big fan of "docudramas". I guess it was two hours not exactly wasted considering that my PC died on me earlier in the day, and there wasn't anything more interesting to do Sunday evening.<br /><br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <em>"2012.. Year of the Dragon!! Get on the Dragon Wagon!".</em> </div>