"As someone with zero inside knowledge but browses the web a lot, I think you will see:"<br /><br /> <br />"1. An initial capsule CEV (LEO CEV) launched on a single-stick SRB for delivering humans to ISS. <br />2. An in-line shuttle-derived heavy launch vehicle (SDHLV) for taking cargo and eventually an updated CEV. The inline SDHLV avoids the tank debris problem, provides an escape strategy for the CEV, and can launch a very capable (read heavy) CEV. <br />3. A 2nd generation CEV (the Lunar CEV) launches from Earth on the SDHLV, lands on the Moon, and returns to Earth. No docking in space, no Lunar orbiter. Straight to the Moon and back. <br />4. Given the previous point, everything except the capsule may be thrown away by the time the CEV returns to Earth's surface. Sort of like Apollo, but somewhat simpler mission profile (no Lunar orbit rendezvous)."<br /><br /><br /><br />LRO and a lunar lander is the way NASA is going according to this article from thespacereview.com...<br /><br />
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/418/1<br /><br />...the text...<br /><br />"After 2010, the focus of the exploration plan would shift towards human missions to the Moon, with the development of a heavy-lift launch vehicle, Earth departure stage, lunar lander, and other systems needed for human crews to live and work on the lunar surface. Robotic precursor missions to the Moon, starting with the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2008, would continue through much of the decade. “Our target, in the 2018 timeframe, is to make the seventh human lunar landing,” Shank said, alluding to the six landings that took place under the Apollo program. Future human missions, he said, would follow to gradually build up a permanent outpost."<br /><br /><br /> <br />