Trump wants the US to land astronauts on Mars soon. Could it happen by 2029?

[Admin]

There are many obstacles to overcome before humans can set foot on Mars, including problems surrounding launch mass and closed-loop systems and the hazards of space radiation.

Trump wants the US to land astronauts on Mars soon. Could it happen by 2029? : Read more

 

[TomB]

We won't even be back to the moon by then. Who wants to ride a spacecraft with a record of blowing up? This is just another way to funnel billions of dollars to Musk.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Indeed, at the rate of current progress, we will be lucky to back on the moon by 2030. Mars is a great aspirational goal, but there is far too much to be done, designed, and tested. At NASA's current budget of just 0.5% of the Federal budget (half a penny out of each dollar), there simply isn't enough money to get it done in a mere 4-years. Moon by 2030. Establish a base. Learn from it. Mars by 2040, at least an initial landing, then as Konstantine Tsiolkovsky predicted, expand human presence throughout the solar system over the next 1000 years.

 

[Mars Tafts]

So with all due respect what has the German Aerospace Center (DLR) launched into space since the V2 that makes them experts on human spaceflight? Passengers on the Space Shuttle? Built a structure for a soft landing probe that crashed into a comet?

 

[alanm232]

I would love to see astronauts labd on Marss, and return if they want by the time frame.

 

[DrRaviSharma]

I am not favoring any ideology or any party.
I benefitted from a President's announcement that we had to reach Moon by end of decade and the whole country and many of us from elsewhere contributed as well as received Apollo Awards.

Details were not provided by President, it was a need and a commitment. Learned (Like Von Braun of V2 rockets mentioned in this thread) and Learning teams laid out and step by step executed and scaled to build Saturn V thereafter. Result is Human Lunar landing. There were negative commentaries but overwhelming spirit.

If such commitments would have been made on Fusion, we might have had a powerful or long duration nuclear engine that would have by now provided not only our energy needs with lower risks than fission but would also provide help with Vehicle for interplanetary crewed and robotic missions.

Lofty goals sometime appear to deviate from our wishes for meeting the needs of all sectors of society etc. but in retrospect that money would not have made any significant dent on economic growth.

This forum and community has already discussed robotic missions and have often given low priority to crewed missions. But as a person who was supported by the Moon, I hope next generations would be paid by Mars, our neighbor in space.

If there is political and overwhelming support by representatives, Leaders and Learners can pool enough resources to make Mars happen through the shortest and yet safe (acceptable risk) routes.

Let then the fruits of such great feats reach all!
We are more open than China in our intentions for exploring space so far!

Thanks

 

[Atlan0001]

At least we have a President who wants to get something done. Remember, Artemis was Trump's idea. Mars is a great goal, but with budget realities, unless NASA is given at least 1 full percent of the bloated Federal budget instead of half that, nothing is ever going to be done quickly, the moon or Mars.

A real 'Renaissance Man' with a renaissance-frontier mind. A man of history's 'Frontier Mankind' is now President of the United States! If only he could see, or be told of, the enormity and enormous closeness of the 'High Frontier' surfaces of the Lagrange Points to build artificial gravity stations and (cloud city-state-like) colonies upon first! We need the high seas and surface of the 'High Frontier' first before the surface of Mars (far too little! Far too late! Far too isolated from Mankind's, and life's, needs and wants of frontier birth regarding the Space Frontier! to be first)!

He has the right idea, thank goodness, but the wrong location! And as President Trump should know best of all, it's always "location! location! location!"

If Elon Musk, President Trump's principle adviser in this I think, weren't so fixated, for so long, upon Mars, he would know and understand too!

 

[gsteele531]

As one commenter said, there are many obstacles to overcome.

Travel to Mars would be a one way trip and absolutely a death wish. You can't fly off of the surface of Mars. Even a small Mars lander, can't carry that much fuel. You can go down, but you will never come up.

Trump doesn't understand the rocket mass equations and he's just blowing hot air so he can extract money from the treasury with his imbecilic tarrifs.

Should Trump or Elon want to be on the mission that LANDS on Mars, then I would say, let's fund it. They won't do this, of course, they want someone else to go.

This is all utter nonsense. Trump has no actual interest in the USA as a country, nor in technology. He's just having fun, playing with other people's money. Don't be fooled.

Speaking of imbecilic . . . It's hard to give full credit to the gaggle of mind readers who feel compelled to state their unfounded fantasies as if they had some element of fact, rather than just biased opinion, parroting what they have been gaslighted to believe.

On the other hand, since it appears that the majority of Americans have the same opinion on this relentless slander, I guess it is all well and good that they continue, since it's exactly what sickened the voting public enough to throw the purveyors of endless catbirding and phony accusations out of office - so there's that. I suppose we should be thankful, and in their debt.

 

[Starship Trooper]

Musk on X "Mass to orbit is the key metric, thereafter mass to Mars surface. The former needs to be in the megaton to orbit per year range to build a self-sustaining colony on Mars."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1875023335891026324

View: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1875023335891026324


Nobody thinks this could be done with a single Starship landing on Mars!

Musk does understand the magnitude of the task, as Werner von Braun understood in his Collier's articles 1952-1954. Anything more than a one way suicide mission would require years of logistic support equivalent to a major military campaign. A MEGATON to low earth orbit per year is a staggering effort. The largest Starship V3 design discussed would deliver 200 tonnes to LEO. Musk admits that he would have to achieve 5,000 Starships launches of this size per year to support a Mars colony.

Generally, as laid out by Bob Zubrin in the last century, a Mars Direct approach would begin with successfully landing many uncrewed cargo ships in the same location on Mars with supplies including construction materials, consumables, mining & drilling equipment, electrochemical reactors for production of methane and oxygen, tankage, and the components of a nuclear power plant. Much of this would have to be done 2 years before the first humans were launched.

Actually, in theory, all of this could be done over decades, but 2029 is wildly unlikely, even for a one way, one astronaut suicide mission to plant a flag.

 

[ChrisA]

The big problem with the 2029 date is the Earth-to-Mars launch windows. No matter how much money you have, you can only launch to Mars when the planets have the correct alignment. I mean you just can't fly through the Sun to Get to Mars.

The way you get there has to be to enter into an electrical orbit around the Sun such the the orbit intersects the orbits of the Earth and Mars and you have to time it such that you are Mars are in the same place at the same time. In practice this means you can only launch about every two years (give or take)

The last launch Window was November 2024,
The next is Nov-Dec 2026
The next is Dec-Jan 2028/2029

To we have one opportunity to test in 2026 but that mission will still be flying the return in 2028. So we don't know the result until 2028. Then we put humans on the 2029 launch.

It gets worse because a round trip with a return requires a launch facility on Mars. The 2026 mission would have to leave this in place for the human flight in 2029. So to meet the 2029 deadline we would need to develop that first robotic mission in only about 18 months starting now from zero.

We simply do not have enough launch windows between now and 2029.

The Moon is a better target for developing the technology because we can launch to the moon mny times per year, But we can launch to Mars only about four times per decade.

 

[ChrisA]

We can easily guess where the idea of sending people to Mars in 2029 comes from. Elon Musk clearly wants a huge contract with NASA to try and do it. He knows they can't possibly meet a 2029 deadline but that does not matter. What is important is to get that huge 100 billion dollar contract.

The trouble is that while he can fool Trump who is grossly ignorant about science, he can't fool all the professional staffers who work for Congress.

Likely the end result will be some small added money for NASA to speed up Atemis.

Even if only that happens Musk still gets his $250M political investment back.

 

[Starship Trooper]

@ChrisA
The Zubrin concept doesn't require a return trip. Basically, at a minimum, you launch one or more cargo ships in 2026 with enough stores to support one human for 2 years. This would include a power plant (a large RTG at a minimum) and an electrolysis unit to make oxygen from local water ice , assuming ice is available.
If the cargo ships land safely, then you launch your hero(es) in 2029, if the astronaut(s) survives the passage and landing, he/she will have to hope more supplies are launched in the next window, assuming they are still alive. Even so, this scenario is wildly improbable

 

[contrarian]

Actually, in theory, all of this could be done over decades, but 2029 is wildly unlikely, even for a one way, one astronaut suicide mission to plant a flag.

To be sure, 2029 is even more than wildly unlikely, it is simply not possible. NASA's expected time line is 10 years later, by 2039.

Although it would be nice for Musk and Trump to do that flag planting trip even sooner, as we would no longer have to deal with such wildly irrational ideas. A one way trip would be cool...............