> <i><font color="yellow">With the finale' of the X-Prize coming up, there has been lots of talk about how the it will affect the space industry.</font>/i><br /><br />There are far too many unknowns to be confident about any prediction, but for fun, here are the lists of unknowns and predictions.<br /><br /><b>Unknowns</b><br /><ul type="square"><li><font color="yellow">Will someone actually win the X Prize?</font> It isn't simply a factor of who will be first; the prize expires this coming January 1st. If SS1's engine doesn't have enough power to reach the altitude with the load of 3 people, the prize may go unclaimed.<br /></li></ul><ul type="square"><li><font color="yellow">Will the tourists show up?</font> There have been several surveys showing a potential market for tourists paying $100k for a suborbital flight, but there is a big difference between <i>saying</i> you will and <i>actually paying</i> for it.<br /></li></ul><ul type="square"><li><font color="yellow">Will the X Prize have a follow on?</font> The X Prize organizers used to talk about an annual competition following the original X Prize (the X Prize Cup), but I haven't heard anyone say who is going to actually put up the money. I did a quick check of their recently redesigned web site and could no longer find the material for the follow on prizes.<br /></li></ul><ul type="square"><li><font color="yellow">Will Congress and NASA embrace prizes in more than a token fashion?</font> NASA designated a very small put of money for prizes, but Congress didn't even fund that.<br /></li></ul><br /><br /><b>Predictions</b><br /><ul type="square"><li><font color="yellow">The tourists will show up.</font> There will be an initial surge at $100K per flight, but that will drop quickly after a few months. However, the sweet spot will be when the price drops to $50K for a suborbital flight, and then sustained tourism will take off.<br /></li></ul><ul type="square"><li></li></ul></i>