When are we going to Mars??

[fatal291]

Thanks I'd love to hear more about your job as a Geologist, I guess you can PM me if you feel like It but it would be great. <br /><br /><br />I was watching some shows on the Discovery Channel and i think it was made in 2002 but it showed how NASA were aiming for a probe to land there, take rock samples, (somehow) rocket them back to earth. I see how fast they scrap plans now I guess.

 

[j05h]

Fatal - Have you checked out 4Frontiers? You could go to a major school, study engineering and working for them. There's also Bigelow and a host of California-based companies getting into spaceflight. As for outreach, many space "people" (NASA engineers, astronomers, corp. engineers, etc) give talks and presentations, but it varies by area. It may be your task to find the local that can do do that for your school. <br /><br />http://www.4frontiers.com/<br /><br />Others - if you are against human spaceflight, you're against the survival of all Life. The clock eventually gets reset on Earth. Into the deep future we will have to preserve life in the sky to rebuild Earth after the Big One hits. Another Chicxulub impactor is out there, it might be millions of years away, but we may only have a few generations as humans to spread outward.<br /><br />We don't know enough about Mars to know exactly what is valuable. Yeast (to put bread on the table) may be what Mars does best? Any alien biota will be invaluable to biotech, probably more valuable than exporting minerals. We don't know yet. Heck, maybe Mars has OIL. Or uranium. Some NEOs have kerrageenan-like petroleum precursors. <br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[kosmonavtkaa]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p><font color="orange">Others - if you are against human spaceflight, you're against the survival of all Life. The clock eventually gets reset on Earth. Into the deep future we will have to preserve life in the sky to rebuild Earth after the Big One hits. Another Chicxulub impactor is out there, it might be millions of years away, but we may only have a few generations as humans to spread outward. </font>p><hr /></p></blockquote><br /><br />The Sun won't be around forever, either (expand into a red giant in 5 billion years or so), so humanity will <b>have</b> to have evacuated the Earth before then - if we are not extinct by then! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[nyarlathotep]

<font color="yellow">What are the ethical boundaries interacting with a planet that may, in the past, present or future, be home to life of its own? </font><br /><br />Earth is full of life, we put it on burgers. <br /><br />I don't really see why there should be an ethical distinction between terran and martian life. Either it's ok for you to kill microbes and anything larger (and vegitarians kill billions per day) or you should commit seppuku and stop wasting the space and resources that the rest of our species need.

 

[mithridates]

I'll have to take issue with this:<br />"Others - if you are against human spaceflight, you're against the survival of all Life."<br />I would agree if it were written as: "Others - if you are against spaceflight/space development, you're against the survival of all Life."<br />Since the reason for most people to be against human spaceflight right now is the high cost and the wish to get much better science (and hopefully the discovery of an Earth-like planet elsewhere, the holy grail), to them the above quote would be similar to telling a person that if they're against fourth gear they're against driving. Well no, perhaps they just want to get up to speed with first gear before switching up. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>

 

[fatal291]

Lol I see (somehow) this topic has branched out into many directions.. So I just wanted to bring up the fact that no one from the future has told us all of humanity will die out.. sure the odds are pretty good but I think for us to get the entire idea of how space works we will need to look outside of the odds for once.

 

[qso1]

Nyarlathotep:<br />Well, I'm against using humans for remote sensing. Using the shuttle for SRTM instead of a Dnepr or Minotaur was a special type of ludicrous that only NASA seems to be capable of.<br /><br />Me:<br />I'd say the Russian space agency has done their share of using humans for remote sensing and IMO, rightfully so. I favor an economical mix of human and robotic capability.<br /><br />As for utilizing the rockets you mentioned for SRTM. In the configuration SRTM was flown, including mass, you might have overlooked one small reason why NASA used the shuttle.<br /><br />Payload mass...as detailed below.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnepr_rocket<br />Dneper payload to LEO:<br />4,500 kg (9,900 lb)<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minotaur_(rocket)<br />Minotaur payload to LEO:<br />580 kg (1,280 lbm)<br /><br />http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm/statistics.html<br />Payload Weight: approximately 13,600 kg (approximately 29,000 lbs or 14.5 tons)<br /><br />SRTM would have to have been greatly scaled back to come within the payload mass parameters of the Dneper or Minotaur. Dosn't appear to me that NASA was ludicorous, they did their homework and did so long before the SRTM mission. The shuttle had been the only vehicle available for such heavy payloads (Before the heavy Delta and Atlas) and payloads that require large volume for transport to orbit.<br /><br />Nyarlathotep:<br />What is there on Mars that isn't on Phobos, Deimos and in NEAs?<br /><br />Me:<br />For mining interests I tend to agree with you.<br /><br />I see mars as a potential abode for extremophile life forms which if discovered and confirmed, would need to be studied and ideally in their own environment. Such a discovery would suggest that if simple life can thrive on two planets of the sa <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

Fatal291:<br />Lol I see (somehow) this topic has branched out into many directions.<br /><br />Me:<br />Your right about that.<br /><br />But in keeping on track, I see only a few ways to Mars these days.<br /><br />1.<br />The discovery of questionable samples by an unmanned probe, and by questionable...they may or may not be life forms. Only a human mission can determine with the highest degree of certainty possible. And a human mission would probably be proposed upon discovery of such questionable samples if they are leaning heavily towards being life forms.<br /><br />2.<br />A combined effort between private enterprise which establishes economical access to low orbit for their own purposes. And NASA, which develops the necessary hardware to leave low orbit for mars, taking advantage of the economy offered by the lower access provided by the private sector.<br /><br />I do not think a flags and footprints mission will ever be approved. What happened with the moon race was a once in a millinia event. All the right events and influences came together to make the moon landing possible. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[brellis]

qso: <font color="yellow">What happened with the moon race was a once in a millinia event.</font><br /><br />Not if China surprises us with quick success in its efforts. We'll redouble our efforts to get back there and make sure they don't pull our flag up. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#ff0000"><em><strong>I'm a recovering optimist - things could be better.</strong></em></font> </p> </div>

 

[qso1]

You could be right but I don't really think China will have that great an effect, especially since we should be developing our new lunar effort by the time China lands.<br /><br />But if as I have mentioned in the past, a new Presidential Administration scuttles our lunar effort, even China won't be enough incentive to overcome that. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[fatal291]

So when is China going to make their move? Im sure it will raise some eyebrows once they start to

 

[mattblack]

When are we going to Mars? FAR too many years from now. I mean; probably a couple decades from now -- plenty of opportunity for at LEAST 1 or 2 multi-hundred billion dollar wars between now and then... <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America <strong><em><u>CAN</u></em></strong> Afford it!!  LEO is a <strong><em>Prison</em></strong> -- It's time for a <em><strong>JAILBREAK</strong></em>!!</p> </div>

 

[subzero788]

This article from The Space Review argues that a human mission to Mars won't happen before 2040, and although I don't agree with absolutely everything point it makes, I am inclined to agree. Unless we make some real progress with technology on the moon or alt space has some serious cost breakthroughs it'd going to have to be that way.<br /><br />http://www.thespacereview.com/article/602/1

 

[fatal291]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/space/03/13/china.space.satellite.ap/index.html<br /><br />I see China is moving faster than we thought, so The basic estimate is 2040?

 

[mattblack]

Geez: I'll be 75 years old then... <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>One Percent of Federal Funding For Space: America <strong><em><u>CAN</u></em></strong> Afford it!!  LEO is a <strong><em>Prison</em></strong> -- It's time for a <em><strong>JAILBREAK</strong></em>!!</p> </div>

 

[rocketman5000]

I'll only be 57, Maybe young enough to still hitch a ride

 

[no_way]

Griffin just said "mid 30ies" for mars in his appropriations committe hearing<br />Guess the likelihood of that happening ..<br /><br />In other news, Ares system development costs have been quoted at around $25 billion.<br /><br />Right now, at current launch prices, with existing launchers, $25 billion would buy you around five thousand tons on LEO. ( actually, with a $25B purchase order you could get huge discount so it would probably be more like ten thousand .. whatever )<br /><br />Let that sink in for a while....<br /><br />What could you do with five thousand ton stack assembled on LEO ? <br /><br />Ok, lets say you lose half the payload, 2500 tons for docking hardware and boiloff losses and whatever. You are still left with 2500 tons. How many trips to mars would that get you ? Especially considering that the deep-space parts of the stack could easily be reuseable, and only the propellants need be relaunched for next missions.<br /><br /><br />

 

[rocketman5000]

If you were lifting that much mass to LEO I hope you'd have a cryocooler or two in the mix.

 

[j05h]

If there is an incentive of some kind, humans to Mars can happen anytime (though it will take 10 years to implement). Barring some incentive, be it Fortune, Fame or Nation, the journey to Mars could be put off indefinitely. Even 2040 might be to soon. There is a lot of pressure to not do human spaceflight for national space agencies, the question is whether private explorers will face the same pressures?<br /><br />Josh <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[j05h]

<i>>Right now, at current launch prices, with existing launchers, $25 billion would buy you around five thousand tons on LEO. ....<br />What could you do with five thousand ton stack assembled on LEO ?</i><br /><br />That mass of ship/fleet could land human habs and mining/industrial hardware anyplace in the inner solar system. The leverage of that much more up-mass might be the make-or-break point for the lunar base. If the first segment of the '5000 tons on Proton/Atlas" consists of propellant depots and Lunar LoX ISRU, you can leverage far more payloads to the lunar surface. ESAS is only proposing to produce around 2500 tons of total hardware, and the current cost predictions don't even begin to cover base development. If they were willing to constrain themselves to regular, existing rockets, they could be building the lunar base hardware now. There are other "savings" involved in this approach beyond budgets, the primary of which is ESAS itself. Taking a decade and a half to do what we did in 8 years (apollo thru first flight) is not going to hold the US public or Congress attention. This is also going to involve begging, hat in hand, for every last piece of hardware. ESAS has every chance (50/50 IMHO) of being another NASP instead of another Apollo. Long live the VSE! <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />The beauty of the situation is that some hardware is under active development that will be able to be purchased. Bigelow seems to be working on a generally universal architecture of habitats. With enough money you could buy a Russian FGB/Zarya craft right now. By the time the next crop of alt.space companies blossom (in 10 years), they'll be able to baseline whole systems and just have to worry about funding and specialty hardware. Combine that with Elon Musk's stated goal of $9M for a trip to Mars and you begin to have a completely private pipeline to colonization, just add cash. <br /><br />Timewise, I could see Sir Richard announcing he's building a Ma <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Sorry it took me so long to get back to you.<br /><br /> I said;<br /><br /><i> If you want to go to Mars give up on NASA. Private industry is going to pick up the ball on Solar System colonization within the next 2 decades. </i><br /><br /> And Jon replied;<br /><br /><font color="yellow"> Utter nonsense. Private industry is not interested in colonisation. Private industry is only just capable of butting people onto a ballistic flight to the edge of space. To say that they will go from this to solar system colonisation shows that you have absolutely no grasp what so ever of the realities of spaceflight. commerce or NASA. </font><br /><br />This is what I was referring to;<br /><br /><font color="orange"> So what might be the “killer app” for space? Musk has an unconventional answer. “I think there’s some number of people in the US and other countries that would pay to move to Mars,” he claimed. “They would sell everything that they’ve got, and they would move to Mars.” If the cost of a one-way journey to Mars could be lowered to the “single-digit millions” of dollars, he said, “I think enough people would pay that to actually make the business plan quite viable. I think thousands of people a year would pay that.” Needless to say, that got a loud round of applause from the Mars Society conference attendees.</font><br /> The Space Review<br /><br /> They are making plans to go to Mars.<br /><br /> I said;<br /><br /><i> We could have sent probes to the very outer reaches of the Solar System by now, but we have not for purely political reasons. </i><br /><br /> Jon says;<br /><br /><font color="yellow"> We have done this. </font><br /><br /> Voyager 1 is just past 100 AU, I consider the edge of the solar System to be where the gravitational influence of the Sun ends & the next closest star begins. That is in the direction of Proxima Centauri at about 100,000 AU. A nuclear powered pro <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <font color="#993300"><span class="body"><font size="2" color="#3366ff"><div align="center">. </div><div align="center">Never roll in the mud with a pig. You'll both get dirty & the pig likes it.</div></font></span></font> </div>

 

[fatal291]

Wow this thread really has gone a long way, I just wanted you guys to know I've read every post on here and I really hope in my life time we can go. I was checking out some of their stories and it seems like NASA is slowly cutting back on major projects.. This not a good sign but it could just be one of those days. However China on the other hand is starting to shape up..

 

[j05h]

Fatal - The difference between Space Agencies and companies like SpaceX is that SpaceX is on record as wanting to fly you, personally, to space. Elon Musk is particularly interested in settling Mars. NASA will not fly you to LEO, never mind other planets. The Chinese space program is military. We (citizens) get spectator seats for government space. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center"><em>We need a first generation of pioneers.</em><br /></div> </div>

 

[gunsandrockets]

[This is what I was referring to;] <br /><br />"So what might be the “killer app” for space? Musk has an unconventional answer. “I think there’s some number of people in the US and other countries that would pay to move to Mars,” he claimed. “They would sell everything that they’ve got, and they would move to Mars.” If the cost of a one-way journey to Mars could be lowered to the “single-digit millions” of dollars, he said, “I think enough people would pay that to actually make the business plan quite viable. I think thousands of people a year would pay that.” Needless to say, that got a loud round of applause from the Mars Society conference attendees." <br /><br /><br />[They are making plans to go to Mars.]<br /><br />They, at least as in SpaceX has plans to go to Mars!<br /><br />Here is an interesting tidbit to follow up on your discussion of SpaceX and Mars. While I was surfing the web I came across a reference to an old 2003 interview of Elon Musk. And boy did Musk have some interesting things to say. Musk said he favored VTVL over winged vehicles because they are applicable to Moon and Mars landers!<br /><br />That statement combined with more recent statements about a possible market of one-way trips to Mars provides a fascinating context with which to review the design of the Dragon manned spacecraft. The Dragon capsule has parachutes and a large mass of rocket propellant. If you added landing gear you would have a lander suitable for landing on Mars! <br /><br />In fact a very similar design was the basis for a 1969-era manned Mars Lander concept called the Mars Excursion Module (MEM). Though it bears pointing out the MEM was a very large 50 tonne, 9m diameter capsule with a built in ascent stage and designed to sustain a crew of 4 men on Mars for 30 days. <br /><br />

 

[fatal291]

Lol you used "One way trip" and "fascinating" in te same sentence.