Why China will be the pre-eminent space power

qso1 · Nov 11, 2006

vulture2: China has no political alliance with Russia. Me: At this time thats true. But they did procure the bulk of their space hardware from Russia and simply developed their version of it for human spaceflight. An arrangement like that could lead to joint ops. Especially if a vacuum for Russia, even China is created once the ISS program ends. I don't see that China will necessarily take a preeminent lead and I don't think they absolutely have to. They might but there is no great motivation as there was for the moon race in the cold war days whether percieved or real. China may want to demonstrate national pride but the slow approach it is taking suggests to me they see human space flight as a long term plan for them. vulture2: Consequently it is difficult to understand NASA's rejection of a Chinese role in the ISS, and even more, the NASA administrator's refusal to visit the Chinese launch site because the Chinese would not give him free access to their launch control and other facilities. Me: Pure politics if you ask me but I was told by a technician who worked there that back in the 1980s during the Spacelab program...the only people who couldn't have cameras in the O&C building were the techs themselves. When the Russians came to process the docking station for the shuttle Mir flights, they came in with cameras while techs were told by management they couldn't take pictures presumably for national security reasons. The tech did say the camera policy changed when Spacelab wound down. So I'm not so sure Chinese officials would not gain access, even if it was escorted access to KSC facilities if they so desired. But you did say getting clearance for even a student is difficult so I'm assuming you have had first hand experience with this. I personally think if private industry/enterprise can change the economic barriers to LEO that everyone will benefit eventually whether other nations buy, liscense <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

vulture2 · Nov 11, 2006

>>>they did procure the bulk of their space hardware from Russia and simply developed their version of it for human spaceflight. The Shenzou spacecraft was based on the Soyuz but I think you will find that every component has been redesigned in China and in many cases substantially modified. The Long March launch vehicle is not derived from the Soyuz launch vehicle. />>I'm not so sure Chinese officials would not gain access, Maybe eventually, but just try to clear a Chinese scientist or student onto the center for a research project. It can take months to as much as a year even for someone with a green card and many years of work in the US. I am not suggesting this is due to NASA policy, I would guess it may come from the Department of Homeland Security but I really don't know. The camera policy for employees was relaxed after NASA stopped flying classified missions; I believe it was primarily a DoD requirement.

qso1 · Nov 11, 2006

vulture2: The Shenzou spacecraft was based on the Soyuz but I think you will find that every component has been redesigned in China and in many cases substantially modified. The Long March launch vehicle is not derived from the Soyuz launch vehicle. Me: Shenzou was developed from Soyuz and I did mention the bulk of their space hardware. And Shenzou has been modified for Chinese specifications. The Long March IIRC, was a derivitive of the original Long March which can be traced back to a Russian vehicle but I don't recall which one. I do know that as you mentioned, it wasn't a Soyuz derivitive and maybe it is fully indigeounous to China. Anything policy wise at NASA since 911 I would imagine is probably much more restrictive than prior to. I was referring to the mid 1990s when I knew of someone who worked there. Spacelab itself wasn't classified but the payloads in part were considered to be sensitive due to companies flying individual experiments proprietary concerns. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

asj2006 · Nov 11, 2006

"We've launched hundreds of missions to space and they've only launched two;" Here is a list of manned space flights: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_spaceflights_by_program Notice that RUSSIA has just as many, if not more space flights than the US, and yet we would not expect the russians to be the major space-faring nation in near future. Why? Again, economics. We're talking about the future here, not what happened in the past, so saying the Chinese won't dominate space in future just because other nations have more flights in the past is a delusion. My point was that EVERYTHING flows from economic capabilities, and right now China has all the factors that make for a viable future in space - a determined government and supportive people, the technology (either locally or bought), and most importantly, the CASH to finance any PROLONGED attempt at space exploration. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------- "Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. You know inside whether it's right. Whether you do it is up to you." From the Tao of Willie Nelson </div>

asj2006 · Nov 11, 2006

"...was sentenced to life imprisonment because of corruption, just months before the second Chinese HSF." With great greed comes great corruption, so true... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------- "Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. You know inside whether it's right. Whether you do it is up to you." From the Tao of Willie Nelson </div>

asj2006 · Nov 11, 2006

"Today China has launched 2 manned missions in the space of 2 or 3 years. Hardly a lead, and considering they have so far only done what both the U.S. and Russia did in 1961, again. Long way from the lead." I never said China had a lead, but I did say China can move at a much faster pace than previous efforts simply because it can study the past efforts of other countries (Russia and the USA). This is where technological leap-frogging takes place. China does not have to go through all the trial and error problems that the pioneer countries had to go through, so it is possible (with enough CASH and/or espionage) to attain the current capabilities of the earlier pioneer countries. As an example, China never went through the large-scale use of landline phones that characterized the USA and most nations, but skipped ahead and now has the most extensive wireless network in the world, and soon the most advanced internet infrastructure in the world. Similarly, instead of deploying fleets of space shuttles like the USA, which most likely wasted decades by concentrating on this expensive technology which later proved to be somewhat of a dead-end, the Chinese may simply skip this effort. Again, the point is that by studying (or buying or spying) the technology of pioneers, the Chinese can very quickly leapfrog over years of trial and error and effort by past nations, and given its very robust and growing economy can finance much larger space efforts in future. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> ------------------------------------------- "Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. You know inside whether it's right. Whether you do it is up to you." From the Tao of Willie Nelson </div>

gunsandrockets · Nov 11, 2006

"My point was that EVERYTHING flows from economic capabilities," History, including recent history proves that is wrong. There is much more involved in successful expansion than gross economic strengh. If the raw size of the total economy was the preeminent factor in space expansion, why is Japan currently in fifth place?

kdavis007 · Nov 11, 2006

Don't think so...

halman · Nov 11, 2006

asj2006, Excellent! You have pointed out the primary reasons that China is poised to become the next Great Power. It has nothing to do with political systems, as the Soviet Union made clear with Sputnik, the first manned space flight, and the first space station. It is all about willingness to spend money on a program. And China has more money to spend than any other country in the world right now. So what if they decide to buy the technology from Russia? Does it make any difference in the long run? The United States gained its lead by snatching Werner Von Bruan from Peenemunde before the Russians got there. Should the United States say that its space program is actually German? As for the 'snail's pace' that the Chinese space program is advancing at, I don't seem to recall their launching monkeys to test life support systems. We had better be prepared to see tremendous advances in their program, such as two capsules flying at once, and performing docking maneuvers, a space station being put in orbit, a lunar probe, and other such missions. Because they have the money to burn. And it should be kept in mind that the Chinese language is the oldest written language still in use today. That country has been around many times longer than any other on Earth. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

rocketman5000 · Nov 11, 2006

explosive economic growth in Chinia can be attributed to the fact that their economy is not robust. Chinese economy is driven by the fact that they have a lot of people. With a large supply the labor rate is driven down. If the Chinese had the same quality of life as the US it would not be the growing economy it is as the labor rate will be much higher. Taking those to points into consideration points to an economy that will gradually slow and basically match the United States growth rate. Remember in the 80's everyone was looking at the Japanese economy as the powerhouse, and the model that everyone should use. Then they had a very long and hard recession. The U.S. is still chugging along. It has survived the largest speculative crashes since the 20's, a major terrorist attack, and a one party system of rule for the last 6 years. and is now once again the strongest its ever been. There is money to be made in space. Entrepeneurs are speculating trying to become the next Rockafellers and Carnegies. The United States will remain the preeminent space power

j05h · Nov 12, 2006

I've been wanting to weigh in on this topic for a while. Great thread so far. I went to the Cyberposium(.com) at Harvard today. Pretty cool event, it had a decent space panel, and I pitched Postcards To Space all day. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> /> - China has the money to spend on space exploration and conquest. This is only partly true. Do you mean China the government or Chinese capital markets? I think that your mention of Zheng He is interesting and related. The "El Dorado" of their time was Africa, it was the destination of the Treasure Fleets for it's rich resources. And now in the money-fluid 21st Century, it's back to the same, with huge amounts of Chinese capital in countries like Angola. Can this money later be used to Conquer Outer Space? If space development is going to be sustianable, it is going to follow the same path that most products travel. It will be international, corporate and repeatable. Your car isn't made in one place, even if it's a car for Detroit. Aircraft are the same way, an airliner contains components from dozens of countries. Virgin Galactic, ILS and Space Adventures are examples of the kinds of companies I'm talking about. Can they be Chinese-funded? I sure hope so, because it's going to take a lot of capital from a lot of sources, going TO a lot of different efforts for space to happen. /> - China is leap-frogging the necessary technology barriers by cooperating with Russia. A lot of what they are using is native engineering as well, and as pointed out below, all rocket technology is derivative. From what I know, all of the Shenzhou engineering and construction is Chinese. Heck, China invented rockets in the first place. /> - In the early 1400s, China possessed the most advanced and largest navy fleet in the world (commanded by Zheng He), but it decided to turn inward instead and scrapped their fleet. Because of this, Europe dominated the seas for the next cou <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div align="center">We need a first generation of pioneers. </div> </div>

qso1 · Nov 12, 2006

asj2006: I never said China had a lead, but I did say China can move at a much faster pace than previous efforts simply because it can study the past efforts of other countries (Russia and the USA). Me: My apologies for implying you stated China was in the lead. I responded more to the title of the thread but agree with what you say in that there is the potential for technological leapfrogging. China however has demonstrated a very slow methodical approach which to me seems too slow. If its any indicator, tho they could bypass ours or Russias pioneering steps, they may do them because they may favor a step by step approach. The drawback for China is that despite their growing economy, they may leapfrog to the point we are where human spaceflight may prove hard to justify because of the difficulties we encountered making it economical. OTOH, they might get something resembling a private industry/enterprise off the ground. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

rocketman5000 · Nov 12, 2006

>I hope that China and everyone else will help develop the next HUMAN frontier. agreed, I would say it is interesting to me how much a Chinese space program would help spur American interests in space as well. I am a diagnosed space nut, others around me aren't, but they see the threat to American pride of Chinese sending up taikonauts when the shuttle fleet was grounded. The more players there are in the game the better the chances of private industry and the future of manned spaceflight.

qso1 · Nov 12, 2006

The people I see on a daily basis don't even know what a Taikonaut is. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> My borrowed quote for the time being:There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened. </div>

silylene old · Nov 12, 2006

And it should be kept in mind that the Chinese language is the oldest written language still in use today. That country has been around many times longer than any other on Earth. Actually Hebrew is the oldest written language still in use today. Chinese is usually considered the second oldest <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> Sumerian is the oldest written language of all, but not in use. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function. </div> </div>

rocketman5000 · Nov 12, 2006

I work with engineer's, we are a curiously boring lot, that laugh at a lot of bad jokes

halman · Nov 12, 2006

rocketman5000, The demise of the United States economy is basically up to the Chinese, as they are the only major purchasers of United States Treasury bonds at this time. Without foreign purchase of these bonds, the United States would lack the funds to pay the bonds which are coming mature. This type of default nearly occured a couple of years ago, and it was the Chinese government which bailed us out at the last moment. The average U. S. wage earner is nearly 15 months in debt on credit cards alone, not counting mortgage, and car payments. In other words, most Americans would have to spend everything that they make for the next 15 months on credit card debt to get out of the hole. The typical homeowner is down about 30,000 dollars on credit cards, and many are using credit cards to pay their credit card debt. The U. S. congress last spring raised the American debt ceiling to a new record high, to avoid being declared bankrupt. Then congress turned around and spent nearly half of that new debt ceiling! The American economy is a pack of cards, a shell game, and no one is sure where the pea is. The illusion of prosperity can only be maintained as long as foriegn investment allows our continued spiral into debt. Currently, the General Fund is 8 trillion dollars down, and only borrowing from Social Security and Medcare is keeping the situation from completely blowing up. http://zfacts.com/p/461.html The web site above provides a look at the debt the governement owes. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

rocketman5000 · Nov 12, 2006

Thanks for that link, its an intersting read. I believe a reasonable national debt should also be included in as part of our National Security policy.

christine16 · Nov 13, 2006

so you think US are out of game?

rocketman5000 · Nov 13, 2006

Nope, To restate a quote that I saved a long time back, without writing who said it. />The supposed loss of US dynamism is not a new claim. We've heard this before. The Nazis and the Japanese made such claims. The head of the German Air Force, Herman Goering, supposedly sneered that all the US could make were refrigerators and razor blades. Those refrigerators and razor blades had flattened a massive amount of Germany and Japan by the middle of 1945. The Soviets ranted for decades about the "structural crisis of Capitalism." They're gone, and we're still here, to the evident annoyance of people like Osama bin Laden and his merry band of genocidal theocrats.< The US economy is booming, and will remain that way for the forseeable future. Even our enemies in places such as Iran don't really want the US economy to crumble. It would result in a world wide depression. We are a nation of consumers. Chinese is a nation of exporters largely to the United States. Should our economy fail it would have just as devasting effects on them and the rest of the world. We are one good administration away from turning the debt around and putting America on a safer tract.

halman · Nov 13, 2006

Christine16, The link that you included did not work, nor did it work when I googled bertran.uni.cc. and tried to navigate from there. Maybe their server is down. But, yes, I think that, without a drastic change in spending priorities in the immediate future, the United States is not going to be a major player in off planet exploration by 2025. Our level of investment is too low to stimulate the economy, or to draw young people into science and engineering careers. The aerospace industry is shrinking rapidly, in terms of total payroll, annual sales, or investment in new products. Were it not for the Chinese, the United States would probably have gone into default several years ago, when all but a few central banks gave up buying Treasury Bonds. And even our own bond rating companies are projecting the Treasury Bond declining to junk status in 20 years or less. Americans are buying gasoline on credit, paying their cell phone bills with credit, even buying food on credit. And they are accruing debt faster than they can possibly pay it off. Of course, we are merely following the lead of the federal government, which is spending money much faster than it is taking money in. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

christine16 · Nov 13, 2006

Halman, strange it works for me, maybe try again?

halman · Nov 13, 2006

Christine16, Yes, I got through. Although I find the results of the poll to be a little difficult to believe. Italy is far from my idea of a Space Nation. I voted for Russia. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

christine16 · Nov 13, 2006

yah it was knock out to me also, very strange

gunsandrockets · Nov 13, 2006

"Were it not for the Chinese, the United States would probably have gone into default several years ago, ..." Yes the Chinese are doing so well and America is doing so poorly, maybe we can aspire some day to match the level of rioting now common in China! http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:Xh79b1jvXRMJ:www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33416.pdf+how+many+riots+in+china+per+year&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=1&ie=UTF-8 "In the past few years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has experienced rising social unrest, including protests, demonstrations, picketing, and group petitioning. According to PRC official sources, “public order disturbances” have grown by nearly 50% in the past two years, from 58,000 incidents in 2003 to 87,000 in 2005. Although political observers have described social unrest among farmers and workers since the early 1990s, recent protest activities have been broader in scope, larger in average size, greater in frequency, and more brash than those of a decade ago. Fears of greater unrest have triggered debates with the Communist Party leadership about the pace of economic reforms and the proper way to respond to protesters."

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