Why China will be the pre-eminent space power

[mithridates]

I myself doubt that the US will lose its position as the/a leader in space development for the fact that we have companies like Virgin Galactic (launching from New Mexico) just about ready to launch people into suborbital space starting in 2009. It's interesting to see countries like India just getting ready for a manned program while at the same time a private company is doing the same thing (slightly lower orbit and way shorter time but still space) for average people for just $200,000 and bound to fall in price. Of course, India and China are just as capitalistic so they should do fine in their own way, but it will be more company to company than nation to nation. Which is the way it should be. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>

 

[5stone10]

<font color="yellow"><b>Chinese, as they are the only major purchasers of United States Treasury bonds</b></font><br /><br /><br />US citizens are far and away the largest holders of US debt - followed by Japan, China and the UK.<br /><br /><br />MAJOR HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES<br />(billions of dollars)<br />==============================<br />US Citizens - 2,785<br />Japan - 644.2<br />China - 339.0<br />United Kingdom - 201.4

 

[halman]

5stone10,<br /><br />At an auction for institutional investors last January, 10 billion in Treasury bonds was sold. I don't believe that U. S. banks bought very many of those bonds, from what I have read in various papers. According to the Treasury Direct site, the Treasury annually auctions 4.2 trillion dollars in securities.<br /><br />http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/auctfund/work/work.htm<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

 

[halman]

mithridates,<br /><br />Please don't confuse a sub-orbital program like Virgin Galactic with a manned orbital proposal. There is a significant difference, such that I doubt that Virgin Galactic will be in the orbital business for at least another 10 years, if ever. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> The secret to peace of mind is a short attention span. </div>

 

[alokmohan]

We dont count suborbitals.

 

[5stone10]

I think the point is who holds the largest percentage of bonds and therefore who holds the greatest 'influence' over the treasury. <br /><br />The degree of influence that China has upon the US economy is overstated - judging by the amount of bonds China holds [remembering that debt is not equity nor is it equitable], and also judging by the Chinese currency, the Yuan, which is not a money-center currency.

 

[asj2006]

Behind all the wordy talk about year 20 missions is an administration bent on crippling space exploration:<br /><br />http://blog.wired.com/sterling/2006/12/uh_about_that_b.html<br /><br />Like I said, who's gonna pay for all that space exploration? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>

 

[asj2006]

"The degree of influence that China has upon the US economy is overstated"<br /><br />Did you happen to see what happened when the Chinese central bank top guy this month simply mentioned about diversifying China's trillion dollar hoard? The dollar dropped like a rock against the Euro and the Yen and other currencies!<br /><br />And countries in Asia are already talking about hitching their currencies to the Yuan in future (assuming the Chinese ever let it float more freely), including Hong Kong.<br /><br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p> </p><p>------------------------------------------- </p><p>"Breathe. This is like most of the choices you have in life. <br />You know inside whether it's right. <br />Whether you do it is up to you." </p><p>From the Tao of Willie Nelson</p> </div>

 

[alokmohan]

Right.No doubt China will be the preemint factor in future space explorations.

 

[goldenpanda]

I would like to weigh in with some comments from the Chinese perspective. <br /><br />What has not been discussed are the priorities of the Chinese leadership. These are often not understood by westerners. Beijing is awash with cash yes, but only because it has been slow to grow its fiscal commitments. There is no effective social security or healthcare benefit for vast numbers of Chinese. In many places public services such as police and education are very ineffective. Beijing could use its last dime, and still not come anywhere close to western standards of public service. <br /><br />Then there is the national defense situation. While salaries are lower, modern hardware costs about the same at market exchange rates. This means China has to very carefully manage its defense spending to deter an American response regarding Taiwan. <br /><br />Despite the CCP's negative image in the west, it *is* a responsible government with the interests of Chinese people in its heart. Any Chinese will agree with this at least in principle. How to progress our society while defending the national interest is the top question in Beijing. The vast foreign exchange savings does not mean we can spend on luxuries such as space exploration, but shows we haven't figured out how to better use the money in our own country. I will be overjoyed to see the day the government can spend its last dime to good purposes. <br /><br />Personally I am a fan of space flight, and I would like to see space exploration as a way to involve the people with science, engineering, and discovery at a mass scale. For average Chinese however, having *something* going on in space is enough to fill our pride -- and the government tunes its space spending very carefully to this cost/benefit equation. <br /><br />Therefore my view is China does not see space as a tournament in which to gain "pre-eminence". Space is one of many vehicles to China's national goals. We will grow our commitments to exploration as other goals are a

 

[docm]

Personally I'd like for China, and India for that matter, to have joint missions with the US to the Moon, Mars, NEO's or where ever. We have far more shared interests scientifically, economically and in other areas than points of friction IMO. <i><b>If</b></i> everyone keeps their cool re: Taiwan and NK it should stay that way. <br /><br />If <i><b>both</b></i> Taiwan and China could just agree to peacefully disagree and to quit rattling sabers at each other that would help a lot. Watching from the outside this looks like a divorced couple bickering long after a default decree has been issued and the kids have grown <img src="/images/icons/tongue.gif" /><br /><br />My biggest worry is an apparent resurgence of Russia's aggressive tendencies, as in the gas pipeline issue and a few odd fatalities among their leaderships political opponents. After that is an unease about future China-Russia relations (I know, I know....call it watching history's precedents). <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

 

[mithridates]

That's why I'm really glad that Azerbaijan's been doing so well recently. They don't need to buy gas from Russia anymore and are going to get it from Iran for the next year or so, and in addition to that they are a huge oil exporter and through the new pipeline Russia doesn't have a monopoly in oil anymore.<br /><br />Link <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>----- </p><p>http://mithridates.blogspot.com</p> </div>