ASTEROID 2007 TU24 GETTING CLOSER

[cyclonebuster]

Yesterday it had the asteroid @.0045 AU 1-29-08 @1200 NOON. Today it is @.0038 AU 1-29-08 @ 1200 NOON. Why the big change? Earth moid is now @ .00096 or 92,00 miles Much less than the 1.4 lunar distance of a few days ago!<br />http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1

 

[MeteorWayne]

All changes are due to new observations.<br /><br /><br /><br />Check it now. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> 0.00124988 AU or about 187,000 km.<br />That's about halfway to the moon.<br />I wonder if it will be visible?<br /><br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 98 <br /> data-arc span 94 days <br /> first obs. used 2007-10-11 <br /> last obs. used 2008-01-13 <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Is that the same as Earth moid.?

 

[MeteorWayne]

You have to look at each page to see exactly what their measurements indicate. It varies for each one.<br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Man that's only 116,183 miles away on the 29th. When do we run for cover?

 

[cnick]

Am I missing something here?<br />Looking at the simulation it seems to me that the closest approach will be on Jan 29 @ 0.0038 AU = 353,400 miles...close but no cigar.<br />I think that MOID (minimum orbit intersection distance) refers to the closest approach to Earth's orbit, not that the Earth will be occupying that spot at that time. <br />Still, kind of too close for comfort, eh?

 

[cyclonebuster]

Doesn't look like the #s jive!!!

 

[MeteorWayne]

The JPL site has been updated with the latest obs.<br />101 observations from 10/11/07 to 1/17/08<br />MOID is .00124985 AU (186,975 km)<br />Closest approach is .0037 AU (1.4 Lunar Distance; 553,512 km) <br /><br />Edit:<br />BTW, this object was removed from the JPL NEO impact risk page on<br />2007 TU24 2007-12-04 14:05 when observations revealed no possibility of impact.<br />And crick it right; there's a big difference between MOID and closest approach, as there numbers indicate.<br /><br />MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

I like the ALL CAPS headline for this thread. MW, you are prescient. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Another point, a very small asteroid, 2008 AF3 passed within 1 Lunar distance of earth on Jan 13th. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

University of Arizona has EARTH MOID at .00096 AU now or 89,237.574 miles away on the 29th! It is the 12th one on the list. The numbers keep coming down.<br /><br />http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/css/css_sss_newdisc.html

 

[MeteorWayne]

Not that that is the distance between the orbits, not the distance between the asteroid and the earth. <br /><br />Edit:<br />Unfortunatley, that site does not list which observations have been included, so we don't know if it includes the obs from Jan 17. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance <br />The minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID) is the minimum distance between the osculating orbits of two objects. It indicates the closest possible approach of the two objects except where excluded by protective resonance. <br /><br />As such, the MOID can act as an early warning indicator for collision between an asteroid and a planet. A large MOID between and asteroid and the Earth indicates the asteroid will not collide with Earth in the near term. Asteroids with a small MOID to Earth should be carefully followed because they can become Earth colliders. <br /><br />Because of long-range planetary gravitational perturbations and, particularly, close planetary approaches, asteroid orbits change with time. Consequently, MOID also changes. As a rule of thumb, MOID can change by up to 0.02 AU per century, except for approaches within 1 AU of massive Jupiter, where the change can be large. Thus an asteroid that has a small MOID with any planet should be monitored. <br /><br />Each day, we calculate the MOIDs between the inner solar system planets and near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). We limit the table of MOID values presented here to 0.05 AU or less for terrestrial planets and 1 AU or less for Jupiter. <br /><br />

 

[MeteorWayne]

Which site is that from? <br /><br />Got a link? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Sure!<br /><br />http://www.lowell.edu/users/elgb/moid.html

 

[cyclonebuster]

THAT EARTH MOID IS SURE A LOT LESS THAN 1.4 LD. Correct?

 

[MeteorWayne]

BTW, I've been doing a little research and this object will be within the reach of amateur telescopes at about Mag +10 or so, based on the current orbital information.<br />So far, I've only looked at my location, but on the east coast at sunset on the 28th (OUT Jan 29) it will be moving rapidly through Triangulum, 24 hourslater at sunset on the 29th (UT on the30th ) it will be moving through the bowl of the big dipper.<br /><br />Sounds like a challenge, Adrenelynn <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

THAT EARTH MOID GIVEN IS SURE A LOT LESS THAN 1.4 LD. Correct??

 

[cyclonebuster]

Harvard has EARTH MOID AT.00098 AU!!<br /><br />http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/Apollos.html

 

[MeteorWayne]

Again, who cares. The MOID does not define how close the asteroid will be to the earth!!!!! In case you haven't noticed, orbits are invisible.<br />It is not a risk for earth impact. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Again: YES it does! And we should all care!<br /><br />Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance <br />The minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID) is the minimum distance between the osculating orbits of two objects. It indicates the closest possible approach of the two objects except where excluded by protective resonance. <br /><br />

 

[MeteorWayne]

However, the object has been removed from the possible impactor list at JPL, because despite the close approach of the orbits, the asteroid and the earth will never be close enough (based on current data) for a possible impact.<br /><br />And most certainly for this close approach.<br /><br />So lay off the screaming, eh? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Latest from Goldstone observatory! TU24 EXTREMELY strong target!<br /><br />http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/goldstone_asteroid_schedule.html

 

[MeteorWayne]

Well that makes sense, it's big and close, a perfect radar target we can learn a lot about.<br /><br />STILL NO REASON TO SCREAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>