ASTEROID 2007 TU24 GETTING CLOSER

Page 3 - Seeking answers about space? Join the Space community: the premier source of space exploration, innovation, and astronomy news, chronicling (and celebrating) humanity's ongoing expansion across the final frontier.
Status
Not open for further replies.
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
JPL NEO SITE <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
L

logicize

Guest
It looks like they're still using last obs of 1/18. I did find an update on NeoDys as of 1/23.<br /><br />Closest approach <br /><br />0.0037034 AU<br /><br />emoid<br /><br />0.00099 AU<br />
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Unfortunately, I have been unable to find what observations are included in the NeoDys calculations, so don't know if they include any newer data, or if it's just the different orbital and solar system calculators they use that result in different numbers.<br /> <br />I'm hoping there's at least one more update before the close approach, so I can set up my observing schedule, although I'm not expecting any major changes.<br /><br />So far it looks like the path, when it will be brighter than Mag +11 is from Triangulum, through ANdromeda, Perseus, Cassiopia, Camelopardalis and into Ursa Major, passing very close to beta UMA. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Thanx, that helps me navigate their site.<br /><br />It should be interesting to compare when the JPL site is updated. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Just to make easier comparison, I'll post the NeoDys data here so that when I post the JPL data later we can compare.<br /><br />RMS of residuals (arcsec) 4.11400E-01 <br />Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2007/10/11.26838 <br />Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/23.45020 <br />Number of Observations 106 <br />Number Discarded 0 <br />Arc Information <br />Arc length (days) 104 <br />Days unobserved 2 <br /><br />Close approach distance: 0.0037043<br /><br /><br />Other useful data: <br /><br />Absolute Magnitude (H) 20.205 <br />Slope parameter (G) 0.15 <br />Perihelion (AU) 0.9466 <br />Aphelion (AU) 3.0734 <br />Asc. node-Earth sep. (AU) -0.0018 <br />Desc. node-Earth sep. (AU) 1.73688 <br />Earth MOID (AU) 0.00099 <br />Orbital period (days) 1040.83 <br />Date of orbit computation Jan 24 10:06 <br /><br />I believe this is a slight increase in the close approach distance, will check.<br /><br />Edit, there was a gap in obs from the 18th to the 23rd, the 23rd obs were from Siding Springs.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
OK, JPL has been updated, but as of the 24th, so no direct comparison with yesterday's NeoDys.<br /><br />So here's latest from JPL<br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 112 <br /> # delay obs. used 1 <br /> # Doppler obs. used 2 <br /> data-arc span 105 days <br /> first obs. used 2007-10-11 <br /> last obs. used 2008-01-24 <br /> quality code 2 <br /> fit RMS .45979 <br /><br /><br />Note that now are included a few Radar delay and doppler obs, so error ellipse is collapsing <br /><br />e= .5289995472424833= 3.0551e-07 <br />a =2.009713345022321 =1.3014e-06 AU <br />q =.9465758954183368 =4.4072e-08 AU <br />i ==5.801552595603918 =8.5322e-06 deg <br />node= 127.178701889616= 3.3841e-05 deg <br />peri =333.5941213060071 =3.6769e-05 deg <br />M =265.6274333339591 =9.133e-05 deg <br />tp =2454473.299058681381<br />(2008-Jan-07.79905869) 1.0219e-05 JED <br />period 1040.637810274118 =0.0010108 d<br />2.85 =2.767e-06 y<br /><br /> Earth MOID = .00125025 AU <br /><br />Close approach 0.0037 AU 1.4 LD<br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Now NeoDys is slightly older.<br /><br />Optical Astrometry <br />RMS of residuals (arcsec) 4.08365E-01 <br />Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2007/10/11.26838 <br />Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/23.74549 <br />Number of Observations 109 <br />Number Discarded 0 <br />Arc Information <br />Arc length (days) 104 <br />Days unobserved 2 <br /><br />Closest approach Nominal 0.0037042 AU Minimum 0.0037038 AU<br /><br />a (AU) 2.00995 8.54e-05 <br />eccentricity 0.529063 2.067e-05 <br />inclination (deg) 5.801 0.0001778 <br />Asc. node (deg) 127.178 0.0002443 <br />Arg. perih. (deg) 333.589 0.0001601 <br />M (deg) 334.826 0.00155 <br /><br /><br />Perihelion (AU) 0.9466 <br />Aphelion (AU) 3.0733 <br />Asc. node-Earth sep. (AU) -0.0018 <br />Desc. node-Earth sep. (AU) 1.73686 <br />Earth MOID (AU) 0.00099 <br />Orbital period (days) 1040.82 <br />Date of orbit computation Jan 25 10:00 <br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
C

cyclonebuster

Guest
0.00125025 AU = 0.487 LD for Earth Moid. Why the difference between Earth Moid and Close Approach which is set at 1.4 LD?
 
L

logicize

Guest
Emoid is the measurement of distanct between the orbits of two objects when they are at the closest point. Close approach is the distance between the actual objects at their closest point.
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Jeez, you haven't been paying attention.<br /><br />MOID is the distance between the orbits.<br />That is only the same as close approach if the earth and the asteroid are at the intersection points of their orbits AT THE SAME TIME.<br /><br />Remember orbits are invisible, so the MOID is only a theoretical concept.<br />If it's low enough, then we have to worry about where the position of the earth and the asteroid along their 360 degree orbit at any particular time.<br /><br />That is very rare. If that were to happen, and the MOID is low enough, then we can worry. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
3

3488

Guest
First radar images of Asteroid 2007 TU24. <br /><br />Resolution 19 metres per pixel, so this object is tiny.<br /><br />Looks like a contact binary or is double lobed.<br /><br />There should be higher resolution images later.<br /><br />Article here.<br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Like most comets and asteroids, it looks like a potato <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
3

3488

Guest
Hi MeteorWayne,<br /><br />I would not have expected otherwise, but is always fascinating to see these <br />objects in some detail. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>
 
C

cyclonebuster

Guest
Still sounds like these two measurements should be the same??
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
If you look at the gory details, not so. They use different orbit calculators, and apparently NeoDys does not use the radar observations. Or at least they don't say so from what I've been able to find.<br /><br />In any case, they are not so far using the exact same set of observations.<br /><br />The differences really aren't significant anyway. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
C

cyclonebuster

Guest
0.00125025 AU = 0.487 LD for Earth Moid. Why the difference between Earth Moid and Close Approach which is set at 0.0037AU = 1.4 LD? <br /><br />If it comes between these two distances what are the chances of a lunar impact?
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
For the 10th time, the MOID is the distance between the orbits.<br /><br />Closest approach is the closest distance between the objects themselves.<br /><br />The two would only match if the earth and the asteroid were at the closest approach of the orbits at the same time.<br />In all cases (so far), at leat one of the objects is not at the orbit's closest point. So the closest approach of the objects is greater than the closest approach of the orbits.<br /><br />MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Lots of new observations, now that the moon allows some dark sky hours, and 2007 TU24 gets closer. From JPL:<br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 129 <br /> # delay obs. used 0 <br /> # Doppler obs. used 2 <br /> data-arc span 106 days <br /> first obs. used 2007-10-11 <br /> last obs. used 2008-01-25 <br /> planetary ephem. DE405 <br /> SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 <br /> quality code 2 <br /> fit RMS .38196 <br /> data source ORB <br /> producer OSOD/JPL <br /> solution date 2008-Jan-26 02:34:34 <br /><br /> Earth MOID = .0012507 AU <br />Closest approach .0037 AU<br /><br /> e .5289944666502325 5.4238e-07 <br />a 2.009689156201604 2.5066e-06 AU <br />q .9465747128839805 1.1258e-07 AU <br />i 5.801597891555426 1.0133e-05 deg <br />node 127.1794737947481 6.9861e-05 deg <br />peri 333.5938527929499 2.7545e-05 deg <br />M 265.6255184603639 0.0001952 deg <br />tp 2454473.299668749830<br />(2008-Jan-07.79966875) 6.2279e-05 JED <br />period 1040.61902272483<br />2.85 0.0019468<br />5.33e-06 d<br />yr <br />n .3459479330459966 6.4722e-07 deg/d <br />Q 3.072803599519228 3.8325e-06 AU <br /><br />--------------------------------<br /><br />From NEODys:<br /><br />a (AU) 2.00994 7.671e-05 <br />eccentricity 0.529059 1.852e-05 <br />inclination (deg) 5.801 0.0001535 <br />Asc. node (deg) 127.178 7.135e-05 <br />Arg. perih. (deg) 333.589 8.493e-05 <br />M (deg) 334.825 0.001405 <br /><br /><br />Absolute Magnitude (H) 20.297 <br />Slope parameter (G) 0.15 <br />Perihelion (AU) 0.9466 <br />Aphelion (AU) 3.0733 <br />Asc. node-Earth sep. (AU) -0.0018 <br />Desc. node-Earth sep. (AU) 1.73684 <br />Earth MOID (AU) 0.00099 <br />Orbital period (days) 1040.81 <br />Date of orbit computation Jan 26 09:14 <br /><br />RMS of residuals (arcsec) 4.64018E-01 <br />Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2007/10/11.26838 <br />Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/25.77991 <br />Number of Observations 128 <br />Number Discarded 1 <br />Arc Info <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
C

cyclonebuster

Guest
Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance <br />The minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID) is the minimum distance between the osculating orbits of two objects. It indicates the closest possible approach of the two objects except where excluded by protective resonance. <br /><br />As such, the MOID can act as an early warning indicator for collision between an asteroid and a planet. A large MOID between and asteroid and the Earth indicates the asteroid will not collide with Earth in the near term. Asteroids with a small MOID to Earth should be carefully followed because they can become Earth colliders. <br /><br />Because of long-range planetary gravitational perturbations and, particularly, close planetary approaches, asteroid orbits change with time. Consequently, MOID also changes. As a rule of thumb, MOID can change by up to 0.02 AU per century, except for approaches within 1 AU of massive Jupiter, where the change can be large. Thus an asteroid that has a small MOID with any planet should be monitored. <br /><br />Each day, we calculate the MOIDs between the inner solar system planets and near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). We limit the table of MOID values presented here to 0.05 AU or less for terrestrial planets and 1 AU or less for Jupiter <br /><br />
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Which is exactly what I said.<br />The MOID is the closest approach between the orbits, not the objects.<br /><br />They are only equal if both the earth and the asteroid are at the exact point of the closest orbital approach at the same exact time.<br /><br />That is not the case.<br /><br />Yes, this asteroid will need to be monitored in the future, but for this close approach the objects will be over one Lunar distance, which means zero chance of impact. Zero. Nada. Zilch.<br /><br />I don't know why you don't get the difference between closest orbital approach and closest object approach.<br />I've explained it so much that I won't bother in the future, since if you haven't gotten it by now, you never will. I will speak to the audience, so you don't confuse them with your inability to grasp the concept.<br /><br />The 2046 close approach will need to be watched, but until precise measurement are made on the 31st of Jan and Feb 1, it is of no concern.<br />Based on the current orbit and changes expected, it is not an issue; we will watch and see if it changes. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
M

MeteorWayne

Guest
Which is also exactly what I've said.<br /><br />MOID does not equal closest approach.<br /><br />Since the MOID is low, we will need to monitor the change in the osculating orbit after closest approach to earth on Tuesday.<br /><br />That ONLY affects future encounters, not this one, where the closest approach is 0.0037 AU ~ 1.4 Lunar Distances.<br />All sources agree on that. <br /><br />Edited for speeling <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS

Latest posts