ASTEROID 2007 TU24 GETTING CLOSER

MeteorWayne · Jan 24, 2008

JPL NEO SITE <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

logicize · Jan 24, 2008

It looks like they're still using last obs of 1/18. I did find an update on NeoDys as of 1/23. Closest approach 0.0037034 AU emoid 0.00099 AU

MeteorWayne · Jan 24, 2008

Unfortunately, I have been unable to find what observations are included in the NeoDys calculations, so don't know if they include any newer data, or if it's just the different orbital and solar system calculators they use that result in different numbers. I'm hoping there's at least one more update before the close approach, so I can set up my observing schedule, although I'm not expecting any major changes. So far it looks like the path, when it will be brighter than Mag +11 is from Triangulum, through ANdromeda, Perseus, Cassiopia, Camelopardalis and into Ursa Major, passing very close to beta UMA. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

logicize · Jan 24, 2008

Here it is from NeoDys Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/23.45020 Date of orbit computation Jan 24 10:06 http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?quicksearch:0;main

MeteorWayne · Jan 24, 2008

Thanx, that helps me navigate their site. It should be interesting to compare when the JPL site is updated. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 24, 2008

Just to make easier comparison, I'll post the NeoDys data here so that when I post the JPL data later we can compare. RMS of residuals (arcsec) 4.11400E-01 Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2007/10/11.26838 Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/23.45020 Number of Observations 106 Number Discarded 0 Arc Information Arc length (days) 104 Days unobserved 2 Close approach distance: 0.0037043 Other useful data: Absolute Magnitude (H) 20.205 Slope parameter (G) 0.15 Perihelion (AU) 0.9466 Aphelion (AU) 3.0734 Asc. node-Earth sep. (AU) -0.0018 Desc. node-Earth sep. (AU) 1.73688 Earth MOID (AU) 0.00099 Orbital period (days) 1040.83 Date of orbit computation Jan 24 10:06 I believe this is a slight increase in the close approach distance, will check. Edit, there was a gap in obs from the 18th to the 23rd, the 23rd obs were from Siding Springs. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

cyclonebuster · Jan 24, 2008

emoid here http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2007TU24;statpts;gif

MeteorWayne · Jan 25, 2008

OK, JPL has been updated, but as of the 24th, so no direct comparison with yesterday's NeoDys. So here's latest from JPL # obs. used (total) 112 # delay obs. used 1 # Doppler obs. used 2 data-arc span 105 days first obs. used 2007-10-11 last obs. used 2008-01-24 quality code 2 fit RMS .45979 Note that now are included a few Radar delay and doppler obs, so error ellipse is collapsing e= .5289995472424833= 3.0551e-07 a =2.009713345022321 =1.3014e-06 AU q =.9465758954183368 =4.4072e-08 AU i ==5.801552595603918 =8.5322e-06 deg node= 127.178701889616= 3.3841e-05 deg peri =333.5941213060071 =3.6769e-05 deg M =265.6274333339591 =9.133e-05 deg tp =2454473.299058681381 (2008-Jan-07.79905869) 1.0219e-05 JED period 1040.637810274118 =0.0010108 d 2.85 =2.767e-06 y Earth MOID = .00125025 AU Close approach 0.0037 AU 1.4 LD <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 25, 2008

Now NeoDys is slightly older. Optical Astrometry RMS of residuals (arcsec) 4.08365E-01 Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2007/10/11.26838 Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/23.74549 Number of Observations 109 Number Discarded 0 Arc Information Arc length (days) 104 Days unobserved 2 Closest approach Nominal 0.0037042 AU Minimum 0.0037038 AU a (AU) 2.00995 8.54e-05 eccentricity 0.529063 2.067e-05 inclination (deg) 5.801 0.0001778 Asc. node (deg) 127.178 0.0002443 Arg. perih. (deg) 333.589 0.0001601 M (deg) 334.826 0.00155 Perihelion (AU) 0.9466 Aphelion (AU) 3.0733 Asc. node-Earth sep. (AU) -0.0018 Desc. node-Earth sep. (AU) 1.73686 Earth MOID (AU) 0.00099 Orbital period (days) 1040.82 Date of orbit computation Jan 25 10:00 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

cyclonebuster · Jan 25, 2008

0.00125025 AU = 0.487 LD for Earth Moid. Why the difference between Earth Moid and Close Approach which is set at 1.4 LD?

logicize · Jan 25, 2008

Emoid is the measurement of distanct between the orbits of two objects when they are at the closest point. Close approach is the distance between the actual objects at their closest point.

MeteorWayne · Jan 25, 2008

Jeez, you haven't been paying attention. MOID is the distance between the orbits. That is only the same as close approach if the earth and the asteroid are at the intersection points of their orbits AT THE SAME TIME. Remember orbits are invisible, so the MOID is only a theoretical concept. If it's low enough, then we have to worry about where the position of the earth and the asteroid along their 360 degree orbit at any particular time. That is very rare. If that were to happen, and the MOID is low enough, then we can worry. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

3488 · Jan 25, 2008

First radar images of Asteroid 2007 TU24. Resolution 19 metres per pixel, so this object is tiny. Looks like a contact binary or is double lobed. There should be higher resolution images later. Article here. Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 25, 2008

Like most comets and asteroids, it looks like a potato <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

3488 · Jan 25, 2008

Hi MeteorWayne, I would not have expected otherwise, but is always fascinating to see these objects in some detail. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> "I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before". Linda Morabito on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.http://www.launchphotography.com/ http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearthhttp://web.me.com/meridianijournal </div>

cyclonebuster · Jan 25, 2008

Or two rotating asteroids rotating about each other??

cyclonebuster · Jan 25, 2008

Still sounds like these two measurements should be the same??

MeteorWayne · Jan 25, 2008

If you look at the gory details, not so. They use different orbit calculators, and apparently NeoDys does not use the radar observations. Or at least they don't say so from what I've been able to find. In any case, they are not so far using the exact same set of observations. The differences really aren't significant anyway. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

cyclonebuster · Jan 26, 2008

0.00125025 AU = 0.487 LD for Earth Moid. Why the difference between Earth Moid and Close Approach which is set at 0.0037AU = 1.4 LD? If it comes between these two distances what are the chances of a lunar impact?

MeteorWayne · Jan 26, 2008

For the 10th time, the MOID is the distance between the orbits. Closest approach is the closest distance between the objects themselves. The two would only match if the earth and the asteroid were at the closest approach of the orbits at the same time. In all cases (so far), at leat one of the objects is not at the orbit's closest point. So the closest approach of the objects is greater than the closest approach of the orbits. MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 26, 2008

Lots of new observations, now that the moon allows some dark sky hours, and 2007 TU24 gets closer. From JPL: # obs. used (total) 129 # delay obs. used 0 # Doppler obs. used 2 data-arc span 106 days first obs. used 2007-10-11 last obs. used 2008-01-25 planetary ephem. DE405 SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 quality code 2 fit RMS .38196 data source ORB producer OSOD/JPL solution date 2008-Jan-26 02:34:34 Earth MOID = .0012507 AU Closest approach .0037 AU e .5289944666502325 5.4238e-07 a 2.009689156201604 2.5066e-06 AU q .9465747128839805 1.1258e-07 AU i 5.801597891555426 1.0133e-05 deg node 127.1794737947481 6.9861e-05 deg peri 333.5938527929499 2.7545e-05 deg M 265.6255184603639 0.0001952 deg tp 2454473.299668749830 (2008-Jan-07.79966875) 6.2279e-05 JED period 1040.61902272483 2.85 0.0019468 5.33e-06 d yr n .3459479330459966 6.4722e-07 deg/d Q 3.072803599519228 3.8325e-06 AU -------------------------------- From NEODys: a (AU) 2.00994 7.671e-05 eccentricity 0.529059 1.852e-05 inclination (deg) 5.801 0.0001535 Asc. node (deg) 127.178 7.135e-05 Arg. perih. (deg) 333.589 8.493e-05 M (deg) 334.825 0.001405 Absolute Magnitude (H) 20.297 Slope parameter (G) 0.15 Perihelion (AU) 0.9466 Aphelion (AU) 3.0733 Asc. node-Earth sep. (AU) -0.0018 Desc. node-Earth sep. (AU) 1.73684 Earth MOID (AU) 0.00099 Orbital period (days) 1040.81 Date of orbit computation Jan 26 09:14 RMS of residuals (arcsec) 4.64018E-01 Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2007/10/11.26838 Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/25.77991 Number of Observations 128 Number Discarded 1 Arc Info <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

cyclonebuster · Jan 26, 2008

For the 10 th time the moid is this. http://www.lowell.edu/users/elgb/moid.html Not the the one sentence explaination you give! Emoid and Closest approach should be equal and in this case it is not. Now what are the chances of lunar impact?

cyclonebuster · Jan 26, 2008

Minimum Orbital Intersection Distance The minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID) is the minimum distance between the osculating orbits of two objects. It indicates the closest possible approach of the two objects except where excluded by protective resonance. As such, the MOID can act as an early warning indicator for collision between an asteroid and a planet. A large MOID between and asteroid and the Earth indicates the asteroid will not collide with Earth in the near term. Asteroids with a small MOID to Earth should be carefully followed because they can become Earth colliders. Because of long-range planetary gravitational perturbations and, particularly, close planetary approaches, asteroid orbits change with time. Consequently, MOID also changes. As a rule of thumb, MOID can change by up to 0.02 AU per century, except for approaches within 1 AU of massive Jupiter, where the change can be large. Thus an asteroid that has a small MOID with any planet should be monitored. Each day, we calculate the MOIDs between the inner solar system planets and near-Earth asteroids (NEAs). We limit the table of MOID values presented here to 0.05 AU or less for terrestrial planets and 1 AU or less for Jupiter

MeteorWayne · Jan 26, 2008

Which is exactly what I said. The MOID is the closest approach between the orbits, not the objects. They are only equal if both the earth and the asteroid are at the exact point of the closest orbital approach at the same exact time. That is not the case. Yes, this asteroid will need to be monitored in the future, but for this close approach the objects will be over one Lunar distance, which means zero chance of impact. Zero. Nada. Zilch. I don't know why you don't get the difference between closest orbital approach and closest object approach. I've explained it so much that I won't bother in the future, since if you haven't gotten it by now, you never will. I will speak to the audience, so you don't confuse them with your inability to grasp the concept. The 2046 close approach will need to be watched, but until precise measurement are made on the 31st of Jan and Feb 1, it is of no concern. Based on the current orbit and changes expected, it is not an issue; we will watch and see if it changes. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

MeteorWayne · Jan 26, 2008

Which is also exactly what I've said. MOID does not equal closest approach. Since the MOID is low, we will need to monitor the change in the osculating orbit after closest approach to earth on Tuesday. That ONLY affects future encounters, not this one, where the closest approach is 0.0037 AU ~ 1.4 Lunar Distances. All sources agree on that. Edited for speeling <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id. I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function </div>

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