ASTEROID 2007 TU24 GETTING CLOSER

[cyclonebuster]

Why do they tell us 0333 am est on the 29th it will be closest when JPL has it closer to 1200 noon on the 29th when you run the orbit program. At 0330 it is supposed to be .0042 AU from Earth but at 1200 noon the orbit program has it at .0038 AU from Earth. Why the huge 9 hour difference in Close Approach? <br /><br />http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1 <br /><br /><br /><br />Asteroid To Make Rare Close Flyby Of Earth January 29 <br />ScienceDaily (Jan. 25, 2008) — Scientists are monitoring the orbit of asteroid 2007 TU24. The asteroid, believed to be between 150 meters (500 feet) and 610 meters (2,000 feet) in size, is expected to fly past Earth on Jan. 29, with its closest distance being about 537,500 kilometers (334,000 miles) at 12:33 a.m. Pacific time (3:33 a.m. Eastern time). It should be observable that night by amateur astronomers with modest-sized telescopes <br />http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/12/071221162707.htm <br /><br />"I see closest approach <br /><br />2008-Jan-29 08:30.. m ..02 53 52.60 ..+59 17 33.3 10.76 ...003692629112640 AU <br /><br />From the Horizons program ~0830 UT (I only used 15 minute intervals) <br />That time is in UT which equals 3:30 AM EST <br />that's ~ 1230 AM PST <br /><br />It's at it's brightest at 1600 UT, or 11 AM EST. "<br /><br />What is its closeest approach time 1230 am PST, 0330 am,EST or 1230PM EST on the 29th? <br />

 

[MeteorWayne]

I already addressed that subject in my reply.<br /> This Post <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Not good enough be more specific!

 

[MeteorWayne]

WTF are you talking about....<br /><br />Here's what I posted:<br /><br /><font color="yellow">I see closest approach <br /><br />2008-Jan-29 08:30.. m ..02 53 52.60 ..+59 17 33.3 10.76 ...003692629112640 AU <br /><br />From the Horizons program ~0830 UT (I only used 15 minute intervals) <br />That time is in UT which equals 3:30 AM EST <br />that's ~ 1230 AM PST <br /><br />It's at it's brightest at 1600 UT, or 11 AM EST</font><br /><br />How much more specific can I be???????<br /><br />MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Not good enough be more specific and try not to cuss on my post!Thanks!

 

[MeteorWayne]

What part of it is hard for your brain to understand?<br /><br />I transribed the times for you, which were correct.<br />What more do you need? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[adrenalynn]

Time to just walk away, MW... "Pearls" and all that. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>.</p><p><font size="3">bipartisan</font>  (<span style="color:blue" class="pointer"><span class="pron"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode" size="2">bī-pär'tĭ-zən, -sən</font></span></span>) [Adj.]  Maintaining the ability to blame republications when your stimulus plan proves to be a devastating failure.</p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000"><font color="#ff0000">IMPE</font><font color="#c0c0c0">ACH</font> <font color="#0000ff"><font color="#c0c0c0">O</font>BAMA</font>!</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

<img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" /><br />Yep <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

"What part of it is hard for your brain to understand? <br /><br />I transribed the times for you, which were correct. <br />What more do you need?"<br /><br />Run the JPL program and you will see according to their simulation it comes closest between 0900 and 1500 on the 29th not at 0330 est on the 29th.<br /><br />What more do you need? <br /><br />http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1<br /><br /><br /> <br />

 

[MeteorWayne]

The distance is the Ephemeris column labeled delta, and is measured in AU.<br /><br />Perhaps you are using the orbit Java applet?<br />Please note the comment right above the diagram<br />"The applet was implemented using 2-body methods, and hence should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) <font color="yellow">or planetary encounter circumstances. </font><br /><br />If you click on the Ephemeris link at the bottow, you can get the detailed predictions with high precision.<br />That's the only way to judge closest approach, since the Java applet does not have sufficient accuracy.<br /><br />MW<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

39 new observations added<br /><br />JPL:<br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 196 <br /> # delay obs. used 0 <br /> # Doppler obs. used 2 <br /> data-arc span 109 days <br /> first obs. used 2007-10-11 <br /> last obs. used 2008-01-28 <br /> planetary ephem. DE405 <br /> SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 <br /> quality code 2 <br /> fit RMS .44073 <br /> data source ORB <br /> producer OSOD/JPL <br /> solution date 2008-Jan-28 01:21:15 <br /> <br /><br />Additional Information Earth MOID = .0012507 AU <br />Closest APproach .0037 AU<br /> T_jup = 3.639 <br /><br />e= .5289948638703889+/- 2.7981e-07 <br />a =2.009691023790351 +/-1.1791e-06 AU <br />q =.9465747942388316 +/-3.0042e-08 AU <br />i =5.80159778358601 +/-7.9168e-06 deg <br />node =127.1793962724721 +/-2.3054e-06 deg <br />peri =333.5938940238759 +/-1.1363e-05 deg <br />M =265.6256658371046 +/-8.2085e-05 deg <br />tp= 2454473.299623006845<br />(2008-Jan-07.79962301) 9.0195e-06 JED <br />period =1040.620473284103+/-0.00091581 d<br />period=2.85 +/-2.507e-06 yr <br />n .3459474508164084 +/-3.0446e-07 deg/d <br />Q 3.07280725334187 +/-1.8028e-06 AU <br /><br />absolute magnitude H=20.184 <br /><br />--------------------------------------<br />NEODyS:<br /><br />Nom CA 0.0037043 AU, Min CA 0.0037042 AU<br /><br />Optical Astrometry <br />RMS of residuals (arcsec) 4.74996E-01 <br />Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2007/10/11.26838 <br />Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/28.05128 <br />Number of Observations 196 <br />Number Discarded 3 <br />Radar Astrometry <br />Date of first obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/23 <br />Date of last obs. (yr/mo/day) 2008/01/23 <br />Number of Observations 2 <br />Delay observations 0 <br />Discarded delay 0 <br />Doppler observations 2 <br />Discarded Doppler 0 <br />Arc Information <br />Arc length (days) 109 <br />Days unobserved 1 <br /><br /><br />a (AU) 2.00997 +/-1.19e-06 <br />eccentricity 0.529067 +/-2.822e-07 <br />inclination (de <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Again that is not what I am refering to! Look at the screen when you run the program. You will see the numbers counting away as you click the mouse. Do it hour by hour!

 

[MeteorWayne]

THE JAVA ORBIT APPLET IS NOT ACCURATE and SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR PLANETARY ENCOUNTERS.<br /><br />This is the part that is in bold just above the orbit diagram:<br /><br /><b> <br />should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances </b><br /><br />This close approach is an encounter of the asteroid with a planet. (earth)<br /><br />Also, the orbit diagram is in UT. <br />Also, note on the diagram the closest approach reaches a minimum of 0.0038 AU, when we know the actual closest approach will be 0.003692 AU.<br />This clearly demonstrates that the orbit diagram is low accuracy.<br /><br />To get accurate information, you must generate an Ephemeris.<br />There's a link at the bottom to do so. <br /><br />Edited to add exact quote from just above the orbit digram.<br /><br />Edit 2 to point out that the diagram is in UT <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2008-014<br /><br />"Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., have obtained the first images of asteroid 2007 TU24 using high-resolution radar data. The data indicate the asteroid is somewhat asymmetrical in shape, with a diameter roughly 250 meters (800 feet) in size. Asteroid 2007 TU24 will pass within 1.4 lunar distances, or 538,000 kilometers (334,000 miles), of Earth on Jan. 29 at 12:33 a.m. Pacific time (3:33 a.m. Eastern time). <br /><br />"With these first radar observations finished, we can guarantee that next week's 1.4-lunar-distance approach is the closest until at least the end of the next century," said Steve Ostro, JPL astronomer and principal investigator for the project. "It is also the asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years." <br /><br />Scientists at NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL have determined that there is no possibility of an impact with Earth in the foreseeable future. <br /><br />Asteroid 2007 TU24 was discovered by the NASA-sponsored Catalina Sky Survey on Oct. 11, 2007. The first radar detection of the asteroid was acquired on Jan. 23 using the Goldstone 70-meter (230-foot) antenna. <br /><br />Ostro and his team plan further radar observations of asteroid 2007 TU24 using the National Science Foundation's Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico on Jan. 27-28 and Feb. 1-4. <br /><br /> radar image <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

THE JAVA ORBIT APPLET IS NOT ACCURATE and SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR PLANETARY ENCOUNTERS. <br /><br />This is the part that is in bold just above the orbit diagram: <br /><br /><br />should not be used for determining accurate long-term trajectories (over several years or decades) or planetary encounter circumstances <br /><br />This close approach is an encounter of the asteroid with a planet. (earth) <br /><br />Also, the orbit diagram is in UT. <br />Also, note on the diagram the closest approach reaches a minimum of 0.0038 AU, when we know the actual closest approach will be 0.003692 AU. <br />This clearly demonstrates that the orbit diagram is low accuracy. <br /><br />To get accurate information, you must generate an Ephemeris. <br />There's a link at the bottom to do so. <br /><br />Edited to add exact quote from just above the orbit digram. <br /><br />Edit 2 to point out that the diagram is in UT <br /><br />So why do the idiots even put it there then? What good is it if you can't use it?<br />

 

[logicize]

"It is also the asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years."<br /><br />I keep reading this every time I see a story about TU24 and it always makes me smile. It should say:<br /><br />"It is also the <b>only known</b> asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years."<br /><br />Since even this one was only discovered a couple of months ago. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />

 

[MeteorWayne]

It is THIS asteroid's closest approach in the last 2000 years, not any asteroid. <br /><br />You miscopied the quote, it was : <br /><br />"It is also THE asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years." , again referring to this specific object.<br /><br />Not "It is also the only known asteroid's closest Earth approach for more than 2,000 years" which is what you said.<br /><br />Another small one came within 0.9 Lunar distance on January 16th,<br />See the VK 184 thread in SS&A.<br /><br />There is also a nonzero chance of impact by a small asteroid (2006 CD) on July 11th this year, and another nonzero chance of impact by another in October That's in either this thread or the one is SS&A.<br /><br />Edited to add the other asteroids. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Unless they hit the atmosphere, in the past we missed all the tiny ones. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[commander_khashoggi]

Do you think I'll be able to see 2007 TU24 with my 4x30 binoculars? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>

 

[qso1]

Despite its MOID, this roid will miss us.<br /><br />http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/01/28/science-asteroid.html<br /><br />Look at the image of its projected path...much like two cars, one going faster than the other on a highway. If the roids position were unchanging...run for cover! <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><strong>My borrowed quote for the time being:</strong></p><p><em>There are three kinds of people in life. Those who make it happen, those who watch it happen...and those who do not know what happened.</em></p> </div>

 

[123glory]

MW,<br /><br />There is a very small one, 6 meters wide that could impact Earth 3/31/08. the object is named 2004 fu162 (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004fu162.html) Given we only have two months left before this thing approaches, no one is watching this thing now? Could it just burn up upon entering the atmosphere since it's only 6 meters?<br /><br />BTW, I wonder what's the maximum size of an object that could be burn up by earth's atmosphere without causing harm to the Earth?

 

[adrenalynn]

Actually, I remember seeing a 0.8AU on the alert site on space-weather, about six months or so ago...<br /><br />This isn't the CLOSEST, it's the closest for THIS body. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>.</p><p><font size="3">bipartisan</font>  (<span style="color:blue" class="pointer"><span class="pron"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode" size="2">bī-pär'tĭ-zən, -sən</font></span></span>) [Adj.]  Maintaining the ability to blame republications when your stimulus plan proves to be a devastating failure.</p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000"><font color="#ff0000">IMPE</font><font color="#c0c0c0">ACH</font> <font color="#0000ff"><font color="#c0c0c0">O</font>BAMA</font>!</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[adrenalynn]

Commander-K' - <br /><br />No way on the Binocs. You'd need MUCH better binoculars for that, I'm afraid... <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>.</p><p><font size="3">bipartisan</font>  (<span style="color:blue" class="pointer"><span class="pron"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode" size="2">bī-pär'tĭ-zən, -sən</font></span></span>) [Adj.]  Maintaining the ability to blame republications when your stimulus plan proves to be a devastating failure.</p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000"><font color="#ff0000">IMPE</font><font color="#c0c0c0">ACH</font> <font color="#0000ff"><font color="#c0c0c0">O</font>BAMA</font>!</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[commander_khashoggi]

Oh, man!!<br /><br />So, I've stayed up ALL this time for something I won't even see....(Kinda knew that all along, but I just kept hoping....<img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" />)<br />Ah, well, thanks anyway.<img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>

 

[brellis]

hi 123glory, welcome <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> - interesting notion there <img src="/images/icons/cool.gif" /><br />you said:<font color="yellow">There is a very small one, 6 meters wide that could impact Earth 3/31/08. the object is named 2004 fu162 (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004fu162.html) Given we only have two months left before this thing approaches, no one is watching this thing now? Could it just burn up upon entering the atmosphere since it's only 6 meters?<br /><br />BTW, I wonder what's the maximum size of an object that could be burn up by earth's atmosphere without causing harm to the Earth?<br /></font><br /><br />According to this article:<br />article<br /><font color="yellow"> Article Posted: August 26, 2004<br /><br />By: David Morrison<br /><br />Last March 31 a very small asteroid passed Earth at an altitude of only about 6500 km above the surface.<br /><br />New orbital calculations indicate that the NEA called 2004 FU162 came the closest of any asteroid discovered by the Spaceguard Survey. From its brightness, this asteroid appears to be less than 10 m across, so that it would have exploded harmlessly in the upper atmosphere had it hit <b>(to reach the surface, it would have required a diameter of about 100 m)</b>. The previous close-distance record was held by asteroid 2004 FH, which came within 50,000 km</font> <br /><br />The diameter necessary for an object to survive the plunge into earth's atmosphere depends on its volume, velocity and angle relative to earth. For 2004 FU162 it was a diameter of 100m . <br /><br />2004 FU162's orbit was perturbed by earth's gravity. The likelihood was already low that it would come as close to earth as 2004 for the foreseeable future - 800 orbits clear from earth IIRC from one of those charts. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#ff0000"><em><strong>I'm a recovering optimist - things could be better.</strong></em></font> </p> </div>