ASTEROID 2007 TU24 GETTING CLOSER

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123glory

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Hi Brellis,<br /><br />Thanks for the post and link! Wow, fu162 was darn close in 2004! You said a 100-meter rock is needed to survive the earth's atmosphere. However, Tungkaska (sp???) blast was produced by a rock that scientists now think is only about 30 meters wide. So my guess is that 30-meters and is up is a matter of luck while anything smaller than that mostly burn up harmlessly up in the atmosphere.
 
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silylene old

Guest
<font color="yellow">So my guess is that 30-meters and is up is a matter of luck while anything smaller than that mostly burn up harmlessly up in the atmosphere. </font><br /><br />The kinetic energy deposited by a meteor, <i>regardless of size</i>, on the earth is given by the familiar KE = 1/2 m v^2. So if the asteroid is too small to reach the surface, this amount of kinetic energy will still be released into the atmosphere in location at the trajectory entry point. Asteroids which burn up, or explode, always release their kinetic energy. That is why the Tunguska asteroid was so devastating.<br /><br />You can calculate the energy release with knowledge of the asteroids diameter, calculate the volume, assume a density equal to rock, and use its current velocity.<br /><br />(it's probably convenient to express the explosive energy release in kilotons, for comparison to devastating atomic weapons. The conversion from Joules to kilotons of explosive energy is 1 kt = 4.2E12 Joules) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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I great site to play around that is the lpl impact effects page.<br /><br />Here you can enter some parameters and see what the effect would be.<br /><br />http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/ <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Re Asteroid 2004 FU162<br /><br />Well a 6 meter asteroid is going to be hard to spot.<br />Still it's an interesting one, though only fireball class, not impact class.<br /><br />The orbit which shows a possibily of intersecting earth is based on only 4 observations on one day (actually 44 minutes!) so has huge errors, both in orbit, and velocity along the orbit (which are almost always larger)<br /><br />In fact the impact possibility is based strcictly on the MOID which is VERY small. In fact if you look at the orbit diagram applet, you will note that on Mar 31st of this year it is expected to be on the opposite side of the sun, and in fact will be invisible all year, if the measured speed is correct.<br /><br />The reason for the March 31st date is that it is the date when the earth comes closest to the asteroid's expected orbit. That means that until the asteroid is recovered, and therefore accurate speed can be determined, there will be a risk on March 31st of every year when the earth crosses the asteroid orbit.<br /><br />This object is so small, I would not be surprised IF it is finally spotted again, it would not be recognized as being the same asteroid right away, so might have a new number assigned to it. <br />However, good reason to keep an eye on the sky on the 31st <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />NEODys MOID is 0.00021 AU, or less than 32,000 km, JPL is .00007 AU or just over 10,000 km.<br />Because of the huge error ellipses, it's not even listed on the JPL close impact page, and NEODys does not list a close approach again until 2010,2013,2016,2019, 2022 (detecting a pattern here?). NEODyS lists the minimum close approach as zero for all those approaches.<br /><br />If you run the JPL orbital applet, you can see why, since if the speed is accurate along the orbit, despite the close MOID, the object only comes close to earth every 3 years. It makes 4 orbits, and the earth makes 3 in the same time, so that's when they come closest.<br /><br />I'll have to <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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I'm telling you, the whole small body population of the solar system is a bunch of rogue potatos!!<br /><br />Thanx for the image, a bit more detail than the last one.<br /><br />We have a few more days to go, hopefully with all these close approach observations we'll be able to build a shape, and rotation axes and periods.<br /><br />It's a great opportunity to see a medium sized asteroid this close up. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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logicize

Guest
I think I see a face. It looks like Mr Potato Head. It's still to far away to make out the hands and feet though.
 
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MeteorWayne

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Sure it's not Mrs. Potato head????<br /><img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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logicize

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Oh my god, you're right again. Someone needs to put some clothes on her, it must be cold out there. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" />
 
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3488

Guest
Potato Head junior???? <img src="/images/icons/blush.gif" /><br /><br />Reaally though, that is a good image. Lets hope we get some more from even closer in,<br />showing surface features, rotation, etc.<br /><br />Any news yet on spectra??<br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>
 
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commander_khashoggi

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Wow....<br />All that hype for a few pixels!!<img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><br /><br />(Not saying that 2007 TU24 isn't awesome, but I just wish that someone can take a detailed picture. Then we'd really get a good look at it.<img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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# obs. used (total) 221 <br /> # delay obs. used 0 <br /> # Doppler obs. used 3 <br /> data-arc span 109 days <br /> first obs. used 2007-10-11 <br /> last obs. used 2008-01-28 <br /> planetary ephem. DE405 <br /> SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 <br /> quality code 1 <br /> fit RMS .36683 <br /> data source ORB <br /> producer OSOD/JPL <br /> solution date 2008-Jan-29 11:46:51 <br /> <br /><br />Additional Information Earth MOID = .00125072 AU <br /> T_jup = 3.639 <br /><br />Note that the orbital elements from the JPL site ore for epoch April 10 2007<br /><br />JPL:<br />Orbital Elements at Epoch 2454200.5 (2007-Apr-10.0) TDB<br />Reference: JPL 36 (heliocentric ecliptic J2000)<br /> Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units <br />e =.5289947338849916 +/- 2.7419e-07 <br />a =2.009690391885536+/- 1.1541e-06 AU <br />q =.9465747578388226 +/-2.9535e-08 AU <br />i =5.801601991875246 +/-7.6289e-06 deg <br />node =127.1794143645124 +/-4.0036e-06 deg <br />peri =333.5938935831407 +/-1.1501e-05 deg <br />M =265.6256130500961 +/-8.0186e-05 deg <br />tp =2454473.299646929463<br />(2008-Jan-07.79964693) 8.3411e-06 JED <br />period =1040.619982482512 +/-0.00089641 days<br />period=2.85 +/- 2.454e-06 years<br />n .3459476139802552 +/-2.9801e-07 deg/d <br />Q 3.07280602593225 +/-1.7646e-06 AU <br /> <br /><br />Below are the Osculating elements for epoch Jan 30 08, based on the observations through the 28th from the more precise Horizons program<br /><br /> EPOCH= 2454495.5 ! 2008-Jan-30.00 (CT) <br /> Residual RMS= .4135 <br /> EC= .5382848812523848 <br />QR= .947327293242247 <br />TP= 2454473.641523613 <br />OM= 127.1285263754938 <br />W= 334.0432884415207 <br />IN= 5.681626947952537 <br />A= 2.051757143694659 <br />MA= 7.330524159430104 <br />ADIST= 3.15618699414707 <br /> <br />PER= 2.93898 <br /> N= .335362997 <br />ANGMOM= .020765857 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Based on the Horizons Ephemeris, next close approach by 2007 TU24 will be in early November 2010 at about 0.310247966593008 AU <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> or 46 million km, or 24,472,678,717 Austrian faden. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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logicize

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That was an awesome movie, the plot was a little weak, but the special effects were incredible. I'm gonna make some popcorn and watch it again. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />Spaceweather is on my daily list, it's a great site.<br />
 
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MeteorWayne

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Nice photo passing M81 and 82<br /><br /> here <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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yevaud

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Phil Plait responds.<br /><br />[Neat gag!] <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>
 
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commander_khashoggi

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Oh my God!!!<img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /><br />I couldn't stop laughing!!xD<br /><br />That was too awesome....<img src="/images/icons/tongue.gif" /><br />Thanks, Yevaud.=) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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I wonder how Phil took it? <img src="/images/icons/rolleyes.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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yevaud

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Actually, really well I hear. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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That's good. The mea culpa in the video (and the intentionally obvious edits) probably helped that. <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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adrenalynn

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The horrible cut-job is what elevates it from evil to a beautiful tribute, imho. There was clearly no malice (the disclaimer wasn't even necessary), and to choose to spend that much of ones time to lampoon someone in the classic sense is really a thing of beauty. I find the awful editing to really be the sincere giggle of the whole thing. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>.</p><p><font size="3">bipartisan</font>  (<span style="color:blue" class="pointer"><span class="pron"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode" size="2">bī-pär'tĭ-zən, -sən</font></span></span>) [Adj.]  Maintaining the ability to blame republications when your stimulus plan proves to be a devastating failure.</p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000"><font color="#ff0000">IMPE</font><font color="#c0c0c0">ACH</font> <font color="#0000ff"><font color="#c0c0c0">O</font>BAMA</font>!</font></strong></p> </div>
 
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yevaud

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Yep, all true.<br /><br />Hearing Phil badly cut to "We're Screwed." Priceless. <img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><em>Differential Diagnosis:  </em>"<strong><em>I am both amused and annoyed that you think I should be less stubborn than you are</em></strong>."<br /> </p> </div>
 
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MeteorWayne

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Of course we all know that the obvious lampooning will show up on a YouTube video supporting the "the gummint will hide an asteroid impact from us"<br /><br />I start a poll hereby, and pick Feb 6th at 2:13 PM EST as the first video that includes that clip as an admission of a conspiracy. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>
 
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commander_khashoggi

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<font color="yellow">Yep, all true. <br /><br />Hearing Phil badly cut to "We're Screwed." Priceless.<img src="/images/icons/laugh.gif" /></font><br />---<br />Totally agree.xD <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>
 
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