ASTEROID 2007 TU24 GETTING CLOSER

[3488]

Unfortunately, there are too many people with too much time on their hands <br />with not enough to do. <img src="/images/icons/frown.gif" /> <br /><br />Hence we get this sort of pseudoscientific conspiracy nonsense on an all too regular basis.<br /><br />This is partly the reason why science in the western world MUST be taken more<br />seriously in schools, colleges etc.<br /><br />I am awaiting the first alien anomaly to be found on Mercury by MESSENGER. I am sure<br />someone with too much time & is bored is going to post some crap along those lines. <img src="/images/icons/mad.gif" /><br /><br />Back to 2007 TU24, I really hope some good science has come from this encounter.<br /><br />Andrew Brown. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080">"I suddenly noticed an anomaly to the left of Io, just off the rim of that world. It was extremely large with respect to the overall size of Io and crescent shaped. It seemed unbelievable that something that big had not been visible before".</font> <em><strong><font color="#000000">Linda Morabito </font></strong><font color="#800000">on discovering that the Jupiter moon Io was volcanically active. Friday 9th March 1979.</font></em></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://www.launchphotography.com/</font><br /><br /><font size="1" color="#000080">http://anthmartian.googlepages.com/thisislandearth</font></p><p><font size="1" color="#000080">http://web.me.com/meridianijournal</font></p> </div>

 

[commander_khashoggi]

Yeah, I can see your point completely.<br /><br />But it is kinda cool to poke fun at things that some people would say "will devestate the earth".<img src="/images/icons/tongue.gif" /><br /><br />Different strokes for different folks, I guess.<img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br />(I hope I got that saying right....Otherwise, I just made myself look like a total idiot.xD) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

More educational info:<br /><br />Why are the results published by NEODyS not the same as those published by Sentry? (MW: the JPL site results)<br />The differences between the two systems are generally not substantial, and in some sense they are reassuring. Independent systems using different software and theoretical approaches are not expected to produce the same results from statistical searches. Experience has shown that there is excellent agreement between the two systems for the more serious potential collision detections. <br />One of the differences between the two systems stems from different approaches to computing the impact probability. This computation is rough by its very nature, and different techniques may be used; impact probabilities different by a factor of ten or so are not extraordinary. <br /><br />Another important variation is that Sentry uses a different sampling strategy, one that should detect nearly all potential impacts with probability greater than 10-8 (1 in 100 million), and does not expend much effort pursuing less likely cases, although it may find some anyway. In any case, nothing with impact probability below 10-10 (1 in 10 billion) is published by Sentry. In contrast, NEODyS may not detect as many potential impacts at probabilities below 10-6 (1 in 1 million), but in certain cases it can detect very low probability events that Sentry does not.<br /><br />from: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/doc/sentry_faq.html<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Latest obs included:<br /><br /><br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 362 <br /> # delay obs. used 3 <br /> # Doppler obs. used 6 <br /> data-arc span 114 days <br /> first obs. used 2007-10-11 <br /> last obs. used 2008-02-02 <br /> planetary ephem. DE405 <br /> SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 <br /> quality code 1 <br /> fit RMS .38488 <br /> data source ORB <br /> producer OSOD/JPL <br /> solution date 2008-Feb-02 17:48:17 <br /> <br /><br />Additional Information Earth MOID = .00125073 AU <br /> T_jup = 3.639 <br /> <br /><br />Latest orbit elements: (From Horizons Ephemeris Generator)<br /><br /> EPOCH= 2454501.5 ! 2008-Feb-05.00 (CT) <br />Residual RMS= .46905 <br /> EC= .5362075954461943 <br />QR= .9477107312752543 <br />TP= 2454473.688289472 <br /> OM= 127.0951666639969 <br />W= 334.1667571939846 <br />IN= 5.627558048372625 <br /> A= 2.043394247016626 <br />MA= 9.384335478505546 <br />ADIST= 3.139077762757998 <br /> PER= 2.92103 N= .337423887 <br />ANGMOM= .02075603 <br /> DAN= .9819600000000001 <br />DDN= 2.81396 <br />L= 101.3703291 <br /> B= -2.4490323 <br /> TP= 2008-Jan-08.1882895 <br /> <br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

OK, a week past closest approach.<br /><br />Here are the JPL orital elements for Epoch April 10, 2007 using the latest data.<br /><br />More on Epoch in an upcoming post.<br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 414 <br /> # delay obs. used 4 <br /> # Doppler obs. used 7 <br /> data-arc span 116 days <br /> first obs. used 2007-10-11 <br /> last obs. used 2008-02-04 <br /> planetary ephem. DE405 <br /> SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 <br /> quality code 1 <br /> fit RMS .49936 <br /> data source ORB <br /> producer Otto Matic <br /> solution date 2008-Feb-05 07:50:11 <br /> <br /><br />Additional Information Earth MOID = .00125072 AU <br /> T_jup = 3.639 <br /><br /><br />Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units <br />e= .5289943174537237 +/-1.4586e-07 <br />a =2.009688704242993 +/-6.347e-07 AU <br />q =.9465747998475124 +/-2.3921e-08 AU <br />i= 5.801604289346082 +/-4.3903e-06 deg <br />node =127.1794168101303 +/-2.398e-06 deg <br />peri= 333.5939013108687 +/- 9.6059e-06 deg <br />M =265.6254930655154 +/-4.2982e-05 deg <br />tp= 2454473.299650131574<br />(2008-Jan-07.79965014) +/-7.454e-06 JED <br />period= 1040.61867168793 +/-0.00049298 d<br />period=2.85 +/- 1.35e-06<br />n =.3459480497462765 +/-1.6389e-07 deg/d <br />Q= 3.072802608638474 +/- 9.7046e-07 AU <br /><br />Current Epoch orbital elemants; Hmmm, orbital elements as of 12/31/07??<br /><br />Previous use of this Horizons database has given current epoch, have no idea why the orbit is of epoch 12/31<br /><br />Anyway....<br /><br />EPOCH= 2454465.5 ! 2007-Dec-31.00 (CT) <br />Residual RMS= .59104 <br /> EC= .5291821268918609 <br />QR= .9465701003313849 <br />TP= 2454473.278506197 <br /> <br />OM= 127.1704163106656 <br />W= 333.5909392070461 <br />IN= 5.801856558925603 <br /> A= 2.010480388271015 <br />MA= 357.3106302575922 <br />ADIST= 3.074390676210645 <br /> PER= 2.85074 <br /> N= . <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[adrenalynn]

How's the apparent mag looking?<br /><br />Anyone in your group get any photos? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>.</p><p><font size="3">bipartisan</font>  (<span style="color:blue" class="pointer"><span class="pron"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode" size="2">bī-pär'tĭ-zən, -sən</font></span></span>) [Adj.]  Maintaining the ability to blame republications when your stimulus plan proves to be a devastating failure.</p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000"><font color="#ff0000">IMPE</font><font color="#c0c0c0">ACH</font> <font color="#0000ff"><font color="#c0c0c0">O</font>BAMA</font>!</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[commander_khashoggi]

Yeah, I'm dying to see some of the pictures that you guys got!(If you <i>did</i> get anything....*crossed-fingers*) <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

It's about +14.5 now.<br /><br />We are still examining the photos, may have a few crappy images. We were beset by technical problems, and had never really attempted anything this time intensive in the past.<br /><br />I'll let you know, I think we got a few really lousy images. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[adrenalynn]

Nothing from me yet. I have a couple nights of decent weather, but I'm not really thinking about dragging the scope out if it's like Mag 20 or something... <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>.</p><p><font size="3">bipartisan</font>  (<span style="color:blue" class="pointer"><span class="pron"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode" size="2">bī-pär'tĭ-zən, -sən</font></span></span>) [Adj.]  Maintaining the ability to blame republications when your stimulus plan proves to be a devastating failure.</p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000"><font color="#ff0000">IMPE</font><font color="#c0c0c0">ACH</font> <font color="#0000ff"><font color="#c0c0c0">O</font>BAMA</font>!</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[commander_khashoggi]

Ah, yes, I see how that would be quite cumbersome if all you were to see was a little faded dot....xD<br /><br />Well, I hope you and MW get/have gotten some good images!<img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p align="center"><font size="3"><font color="#339966">"<strong>If it's planned,</strong></font> <font color="#808080"><u>it's boring.</u>"</font><font color="#ff9900"> </font><font color="#ffcc33"><strong>- <em>Freddie Mercury</em></strong></font></font></p> </div>

 

[cdub]

The Phil Plait response was removed. Where else might I find it?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Well, while an obvious farce, it still may have bothered the poster or Phil, since it left a lot of room for the woo-woos.<br /><br />Who of course undobtedly have seized upon it by now. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[cyclonebuster]

Did TU24 pass through a key hole where it may get us next time around?

 

[MeteorWayne]

No, it is not on any risk page.<br />That was it's closest approach ever. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[15203700700579]

You know I have heard of a million "close" aproachs and none have ever hit! Why is it the numbers are normally wrong? OH NO is Wd5 going to hit mars and then have the debris hit Earth and wipe us out? I don't think so I mean if it were to happen wouldn't it be in the Bible?

 

[MeteorWayne]

Actually the numbers are not wrong at all. There are close approches. They happen, depending on how you define close. <br />And one in a million possible impacts. That means that 999,999 out of 1.000,000 times they will miss, which is exactly what happens.<br /><br />The odds for 2007WD5 were ~ 1 in 25,000, which means that 24.999 out of 25,000 times with the smae odds, it would be expected to miss, which it did.<br /><br />People really don't understand odds at all, sadly. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Oh and BTW, you haven;'t heard about a "million" close approaches. A few dozen perhaps. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[adrenalynn]

If I've told you once, I've told you a million times, Wayne: Stop Exaggerating! <img src="/images/icons/tongue.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p>.</p><p><font size="3">bipartisan</font>  (<span style="color:blue" class="pointer"><span class="pron"><font face="Lucida Sans Unicode" size="2">bī-pär'tĭ-zən, -sən</font></span></span>) [Adj.]  Maintaining the ability to blame republications when your stimulus plan proves to be a devastating failure.</p><p><strong><font color="#ff0000"><font color="#ff0000">IMPE</font><font color="#c0c0c0">ACH</font> <font color="#0000ff"><font color="#c0c0c0">O</font>BAMA</font>!</font></strong></p> </div>

 

[richalex]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>if it were to happen wouldn't it be in the Bible?<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote>It is in the Bible. The star Wormwood falls like a burning lamp into the sea, turning the seas to wormwood and killing 1/3 of the fishes.