asteroid 2009 KK: Risk in May,Jun 2009

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

That's about what I figured it would be. I was going to guess -1.30. The reasons:

All these are for the nominal orbit with the 3 lates obs included extending the arc to 12 days

2022 date of CA moved from May 10 to May 13.
Distance of CA went from .3569 AU to .3000 AU
Distance on 5/29 dropped from .430 AU to .357 AU
RMS residuals dropped from .45623 to .45004.
MOID decreased from .000747539 to .000645987

# obs. used (total) 86
data-arc span 12 days
first obs. used 2009-05-17
last obs. used 2009-05-29
planetary ephem. DE405
SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2
quality code 7
fit RMS .45004
data source ORB
producer Otto Matic
solution date 2009-May-30 00:50:10

Additional Information Earth MOID = .000645987 AU
T_jup = 4.367

e .4562248432079994 0.0014694
a 1.504445319780889 0.0033036 AU
q .8180799896488444 0.00041575 AU
i 18.25613818385455 0.051522 deg
node 68.21961059581398 0.034524 deg
peri 247.2335604409497 0.008309 deg
M 337.8406636470791 0.092903 deg
tp 2455041.987502073307
(2009-Jul-29.48750208) 0.037386 JED
period 674.0048758013374
1.85 2.2201
0.006078 d
yr
n .5341207651828765 0.0017593 deg/d
Q 2.190810649912934 0.0048108 AU

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Here is the JPL Sentry info. While NEODyS is faster, the Sentry format comes out much better here.

Torino Scale (maximum) 1
Palermo Scale (maximum) -1.31
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -1.31
Impact Probability (cumulative) 6.9e-05
Number of Potential Impacts 1

Analysis based on
86 observations spanning 12.033 days
(2009-May-17.25987 to 2009-May-29.29258)

Vimpact 19.14 km/s
Vinfinity 15.57 km/s
H 20.5
Diameter 0.270 km
Mass 2.6e+10 kg
Energy 1.1e+03 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

No new observations reported today.
For the record, the discovery obs were made by the Catalina Sky Survey is Tucson.
So far 16 observatories have submitted obs.
The last, on the 26th, 28th, and 29th were from the LPL Spacewatch II program on Kitt Peak.
Almost a third of the observations come from: H55-Astronomical Research Observatory, Charleston


It will fall below Mag 21 on June 24th just after this year's close approach, so only the most powerful scopes will be able to track it. It then is brighter than Mag 21 again Nov 25 to Dec 13 before fading.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

No new observations reported so far...

Did a little investigating on the discovery circumstances. It was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey is Tucson, Az just before midnight PDT on May 17. At the time, it was magnitude +19.87, nearly overhead in the constellation Coma Berenices, and was 0.279 AU (~42 million km, 26 million miles, 2.3 light minutes) distant.

2009 KK reached maximum brightess from May 23-28 at +19.81, and is currently about +19.84. It will fade to ~ +21.83 by July 2 after which it will be lost in the glare of the sun for about 3 weeks. On July 23 it will be only +22.42, gracually brightening to +20.83 by Dec 16th before finally fading as it heads off on the outer leg of it's orbit to beyond Mars.
It reaches a minimum brightness of +25.42 (too dim to be observed) in June 2010, and reaches a maximum distance from earth of 3.15 AU in August 2010.

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

MW, thanks for the additional information. With luck and good weather, hopefully we can conctinue to get new observations through June. Then I guess we won't hear more about 2009 KK until the end of summer.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I did some calculation of the effects of impact with this program from the University of Arizona.

Impact Effects
Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins
Please note: the results below are estimates based on current (limited) understanding of the impact process and come with large uncertainties; they should be used with caution, particularly in the case of peculiar input parameters. All values are given to three significant figures but this does not reflect the precision of the estimate. For more information about the uncertainty associated with our calculations and a full discussion of this program, please refer to this article

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 80.50 km = 49.99 miles
Projectile Diameter: 270.00 m = 885.60 ft = 0.17 miles
Projectile Density: 8000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 19.14 km/s = 11.89 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock
Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.51 x 1019 Joules = 3.61 x 103 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 6.0 x 104years
Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 16100 meters = 52700 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 19 km/s = 11.8 miles/s
The impact energy is 1.48 x 1019 Joules = 3.54 x 103MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.499 km by 0.353 km
Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Crater Dimensions:
What does this mean?



Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.


Transient Crater Diameter: 5.54 km = 3.44 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 1.96 km = 1.22 miles


Final Crater Diameter: 6.97 km = 4.33 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.531 km = 0.33 miles
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.0932 km3 = 0.0224 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 3.86 meters = 12.7 feet
Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?



Time for maximum radiation: 0.259 seconds after impact


Visible fireball radius: 4.4 km = 2.73 miles
The fireball appears 12.4 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 9.47 x 105 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 63.8 seconds
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 14.8


Effects of Thermal Radiation:


Much of the body suffers first degree burns



Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?


The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 16.1 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 7.0
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 80.5 km:


VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.

VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.


Ejecta:
What does this mean?


The ejecta will arrive approximately 129 seconds after the impact.
Average Ejecta Thickness: 1.62 cm = 0.636 inches
Mean Fragment Diameter: 7.73 cm = 3.04 inches


Air Blast:
What does this mean?


The air blast will arrive at approximately 244 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 24400 Pa = 0.244 bars = 3.47 psi
Max wind velocity: 52.4 m/s = 117 mph
Sound Intensity: 88 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:


Interior partitions of wood frame buildings will be blown down. Roof will be severely damaged.

Glass windows will shatter.

About 30 percent of trees blown down; remainder have some branches and leaves blown off.



Tell me more...
Click here for a pdf document that details the observations, assumptions, and equations upon which this program is based. It describes our approach to quantifying the important impact processes that might affect the people, buildings, and landscape in the vicinity of an impact event and discusses the uncertainty in our predictions. The processes included are: atmospheric entry, impact crater formation, fireball expansion and thermal radiation, ejecta deposition, seismic shaking, and the propagation of the atmospheric blast wave.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Could not find a program if it were to hit the ocean.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Thanx cyclonebuster. I was going to play with that when I had some time.

Just to note you were 50 miles away, and I believe you selected an iron meteorite. With other choices, YMMV

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I believe even if you were a 100 miles from impact you would still be in danger. Ouch!

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Some calculations for 100 miles from impact.


Impact Effects
Robert Marcus, H. Jay Melosh, and Gareth Collins
Please note: the results below are estimates based on current (limited) understanding of the impact process and come with large uncertainties; they should be used with caution, particularly in the case of peculiar input parameters. All values are given to three significant figures but this does not reflect the precision of the estimate. For more information about the uncertainty associated with our calculations and a full discussion of this program, please refer to this article

Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 161.00 km = 99.98 miles
Projectile Diameter: 270.00 m = 885.60 ft = 0.17 miles
Projectile Density: 8000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 19.14 km/s = 11.89 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock
Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.51 x 1019 Joules = 3.61 x 103 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 6.0 x 104years
Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 16100 meters = 52700 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 19 km/s = 11.8 miles/s
The impact energy is 1.48 x 1019 Joules = 3.54 x 103MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.499 km by 0.353 km
Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Crater Dimensions:
What does this mean?



Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.


Transient Crater Diameter: 5.54 km = 3.44 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 1.96 km = 1.22 miles


Final Crater Diameter: 6.97 km = 4.33 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.531 km = 0.33 miles
The crater formed is a complex crater.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 0.0932 km3 = 0.0224 miles3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 3.86 meters = 12.7 feet
Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?



Time for maximum radiation: 0.259 seconds after impact


Visible fireball radius: 2.88 km = 1.79 miles
The fireball appears 4.06 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 1.33 x 105 Joules/m2
Duration of Irradiation: 63.8 seconds
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 2.09




Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?


The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 32.2 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 7.0
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 161 km:


VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.

VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.


Ejecta:
What does this mean?


The ejecta will arrive approximately 184 seconds after the impact.
At your position the ejecta arrives in scattered fragments
Average Ejecta Thickness: 2.02 mm = 0.0795 inches
Mean Fragment Diameter: 1.23 cm = 0.485 inches


Air Blast:
What does this mean?


The air blast will arrive at approximately 488 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 8020 Pa = 0.0802 bars = 1.14 psi
Max wind velocity: 18.3 m/s = 40.9 mph
Sound Intensity: 78 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
Damage Description:


Glass windows will shatter.



Tell me more...
Click here for a pdf document that details the observations, assumptions, and equations upon which this program is based. It describes our approach to quantifying the important impact processes that might affect the people, buildings, and landscape in the vicinity of an impact event and discusses the uncertainty in our predictions. The processes included are: atmospheric entry, impact crater formation, fireball expansion and thermal radiation, ejecta deposition, seismic shaking, and the propagation of the atmospheric blast wave.

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Could not find a program if it were to hit the ocean.

That is actually a rather controversial subject in academic simulations. Some simulators predict much stronger effects than others.

There was a Pluckian-era-SDC thread in which we discussed this subject to a significant extent, with references. We were debating whether observed archeological tsunami damage on a coastline was more likely (statistically) to originate from a mega-quake or an undersea landslide or a meteorite strike. I found a very nice picture of huge (building-sized) pieces of coral flung up on atoll beaches from archeological mega-tsunamis, as did someone else. Another interesting data-point is that here are also very large chevron-shaped dunes on some coasts which were (supposedly - and this has some controversy too) formed by mega-tsunamis long ago, origin unknown. The thread might be hard to find, due to disappeared posts of mine as a result of disrupted database issues over my name each time the forum software got revised, and this thread might have been in a LiveScience forum. But worth looking up! It turns out from my reasearch and reading of the publicly available literature on this topic, that advocates of each specific mechanism of mega-tsunami formation do estimate odds and advocate their particular origin source, and they always conveniently ignore or dismiss the other two possibilities with almost no discussion. As I recall, after a lot of back/forth in the thread, the odds were rather similar within a factor of 2 or 3 that observed archeological tsunami damage could have any of these three origins. So if archeological mega-tsunami damage was observed, any of these three origins (mega-quake or an undersea landslide or a meteorite strike) were approximately equally likely.

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

So with everything factored in (estimated), we could be looking at a mass devistation area within approx 80km range, and affects diminishing from there? That's still quite a lot. I saw many shows on mega tsunami's and ones that scientists believed occurred in the past. If this impact does trigger a mega tsunami it would greatly increase the amount of damage with I'm sure unknown certainty.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

It would be neat if scientist can come up with a program like this land simulation for the ocean. We would be able to see how big of a tsunami it would generate.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Interesting developments. I do things in a specific order to challenge myself. There are 3 more obs, extending the arc to 15 days.
This is what the Ephemeris tells me.

CA in 2022 has dropped from 0.3000 AU on May 13 to 0.2371 AU on May 17. That's a big change.
RMS has dropped from 0.45004 to 0.44571.
EMOID has dropped from .000645987 to 0.000636031.

However, plane crossing has moved from July 10 to July 16th.

I suspect there will be an increase in risk of about 0.1 on the Palermo scale.

Now I'll check to see if I'm right!

MW

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

LOL, I think I'm getting the hang of this

From NEODyS:
Palermo Scale: -1.21

New data hasn't shown up on JPL's Sentry yet...

MW

# obs. used (total) 89
data-arc span 15 days
first obs. used 2009-05-17
last obs. used 2009-06-01
planetary ephem. DE405
SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2
quality code 7
fit RMS .44571
data source ORB
producer Otto Matic
solution date 2009-Jun-02 00:50:11

Additional Information Earth MOID = .000636031 AU
T_jup = 4.366

e .4565990961142462 0.0012226
a 1.505259666450706 0.0027627 AU
q .8179594633320821 0.00033991 AU
i 18.26971994805287 0.042739 deg
node 68.21055137755793 0.028662 deg
peri 247.2378897685575 0.0054231 deg
M 337.8627320072443 0.077802 deg
tp 2455041.979841287451
(2009-Jul-29.47984129) 0.031637 JED
period 674.5522016704618
1.85 1.857
0.005084 d
yr
n .5336873841764886 0.0014692 deg/d
Q 2.19255986956933 0.0040241 AU

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

So this can be very exciting, but very bad at the same time. Any further updates on mass & dimentions?

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

So at what point do they move the torino scale to 2????

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Good qustion. First, let's look at the definitions again...

Normal
(Green Zone) 1 A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

Meriting Attention by Astronomers

(Yellow Zone) 2 A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

The highest Torino level ever issued was for Apophis:

The highest Torino level ever given an asteroid was a 4 in December 2004, with a 2 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2029. And after extended tracking of the asteroid's orbit, it was reclassified to level 1, effectively removing any chance of collision, "the outcome emphasized by level 4 as being most likely," Binzel said.

And in Fact Apophis is now a Torino Scale 0.

There are currently only two Torino Scale 1 objects, 2009 KK, and 2007 VX184.

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Not sure exactly how they worked it out, but I know by predictions given in multiple documentaries I've watched, we are long overdue for a large impact. Just hopefully we see it coming and can do something about it when it does occur. We've had asteroids pass between us and the moon in the past. Of course Gaia has a blind spot that may not detect these objects until it's too late. Here is a great diagram depicting what I mentioned.
http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0204/19gaia/.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Yes, I have a thread here in SS&A where I document asteroids that come within 2 lunar distances. Most are VERY small (< 50 meters). See: Newly discovered asteroids closely approaching earth.

That gaia article is 7 years old so the stats are WAYYYYY off.

Currently there are 6,198 NEAs (Near Earth Asteroids) being tracked, with 778 greater than 1 km in size.

So far, 2009 KK and 2007 VK184 are the only 2 reaching Torino Scale level 1.

All potential satellite and earth searches have a blind spot in the direction of the sun. When PANSTARRS goes online shortly, the idea is that we will detect such objects before they pass in the direction of the sun.

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I'd say. With 1.4 Billion pixels!!! lol, I'd love to have a cam with that resolution Nah, I was just using the article to show an image of what I meant. Of course I expected the figures to be off since the article itself is old. I just couldn't find a better image to show the depiction. Hopefully I didn't confuse anyone.

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

LOL, I think I'm getting the hang of this

From NEODyS:
Palermo Scale: -1.21

New data hasn't shown up on JPL's Sentry yet...

MW

Yes, MW, you are getting the hang of it, and thanks for explaining too ! I appreciate and learned a bit.


Wow, the risk keeps getting worse. Now the odds are of a collision are increased to 1 / 11,350. Those actually are bad odds, if you consider that the collision could kill tens of thousands or worse, or even with an evacuation severely damage everything on a scale of a 75km radius, or maybe cause a much bigger destruction if it impacts an ocean and causes a devastating tsunami.

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Found the torino scale. How did they arrive with the torino scale 1 with this asteroid? It looks like T2-T4 could also have been assigned.

No Hazard
(White Zone) 0 The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.
Normal
(Green Zone) 1 A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
Meriting Attention by Astronomers
(Yellow Zone) 2 A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.
3 A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
4 A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.
Threatening
(Orange Zone) 5 A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
6 A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.
7 A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur.
Certain Collisions
(Red Zone) 8 A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years.
9 A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years.
10 A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.


http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Actually, I like the Palermo Scale better. The Wiki article here explains it well: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palermo_Te ... zard_Scale
The interesting thing about the Palermo Scale is that it is relative to a 'background' risk from yet undiscovered or already discovered objects. This make you realize that the risk of collision from 2009 KK has so far only increased the risk of a collision by less than 0.5% relative to the prior state of before we were aware of this object.

(And normally we are only considering risks for objects that may hit within the next 100 years. Some objects such as 1950DA have scary solutions 871 years off into the future, and extrapolations that far forward are quite unreliable due to several effects, particularly the Yarkovsky Effect. By the way, I found an interesting paper which states we need to consider a time frame greater than 100 years for assessing danger, because 100 years doesn't always allow enough time to act and launch a mission to alter an asteroid's orbit.)

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Found the torino scale. How did they arrive with the torino scale 1 with this asteroid? It looks like T2-T4 could also have been assigned.

Or you could have just looked at page one (the second post) of this thread where I posted The Torino Scale

Again, this is more than 12 times LESS likely than an unknown background asteroid coming up and smacking us.

Using the nominal orbit at this time, it will come no closer than 0.2371 AU to earth in 2022.
That's 35 million km, or about 100 times the distance to the moon. It just ain't that close. The only impact risks are because of the large error bars in the known orbit.

That's why it is assigned TS 1. 1 in 11,000 chance is still not very big.

One of the purposes of this thread is to help people understand how observations affect the risk calculations.

At this time, it clearly shows the rule from THGTTG applies....

"Don't Panic"