asteroid 2009 KK: Risk in May,Jun 2009

[galldora]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Found the torino scale. How did they arrive with the torino scale 1 with this asteroid? It looks like T2-T4 could also have been assigned.

Or you could have just looked at page one (the second post) of this thread where I posted The Torino Scale

Again, this is more than 12 times LESS likely than an unknown background asteroid coming up and smacking us.

Using the nominal orbit at this time, it will come no closer than 0.2371 AU to earth in 2022.
That's 35 million km, or about 100 times the distance to the moon. It just ain't that close. The only impact risks are because of the large error bars in the known orbit.

That's why it is assigned TS 1. 1 in 11,000 chance is still not very big.

One of the purposes of this thread is to help people understand how observations affect the risk calculations.

At this time, it clearly shows the rule from THGTTG applies....

"Don't Panic"

:lol: :lol:

I like this post. I have been following this thread for a bit now. Checking for updates here before checking jpl or elsewhere. More because ... I am not nor have I ever claimed to be smart enough to understand the numbers involved in these kinds of situations. Me, I see those numbers and then compare them to maybe some others and I think, wow! that's not good.

Numbers just really are not my forte. But your thread, I can follow this. A lot easier than when I try to on my own. hehe and I am not too too ashamed to admit, I am a panicer. Though I try my best not to. Darn mom genes.

Thank you so much for these posts. And for the added don't panic advice! I do appreciate it and I am sure others do too. Even if I might be a little embarassed at admitting that yep I am one of those people

 

[3488]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Very big welcome to SDC galldora.

MeteorWayne will tell you also that as more observations come in, the risk is likely to drop to zero over time, even if it appears to rise initially.

Certainly 2009 KK will need to be very closely monitored, to ascertain it's true risk, but I'm not worried, about this one. It's the ones we have not found or very long period comets, they are IMO the real threats, not asteroids or comets we currently know about.

We'll see if 2009 KK will clobber Earth on: Sunday 29th May 2022, after many more observations are in.

Andrew Brown.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

galldora,

Let me add my welcome as well, and thanx for your kind words. Yeah mom's panic; it's kind of their job. Remember "tie your shoelaces" and "don't run with scissors"?

I don't tie my shoelaces all the time, but I don't run with scissors either

I am grateful to silylene for starting this topic, as it has allowed me to get in from the very beginning as the observations have come in. Believe me, we are all learning together. I have learned how to understand the detailed ephemerides (predictions based on the latest "best fit"orbit") and understand how they relate to the actual risk for our planet. Seldom have we had such an interesting object to follow, since the risk has gone up with almost every set of new observations.

Eventually, it is likely this object will no longer present any risk to earth, but the process has been every enlightening even if that turns out to be the end result.

Unlike the other Torino Scale 1 object 2007 VK184, this one can still be observed, so we will get to refine the details of the future orbit. 2007 VK184 is lost...we don't know where it is. Fortunately, 2007 VK184 is not a threat until 2048, so we have plenty of time to find it agin.

As I said above, at this point 2009 KK is not expected to come closer than 100 times the moon's distance, but because of the process of digesting observations from observatories across the globe, the risk is not zero, in fact it is higher than any other known object for the next 100 years.

One thing that scares me is that at some point the ignorant Main Stream Media will pick up this story, and with a lack of understanding cause a panic. That's why I have endeavored to keep all the facts here for anyone to use properly...I have even suggested that SDC get out ahead of the curve with a story, but that has not been acted on so far.

When the media panics, I will document that here in this thread as well

So despite your natural inclination, Don't Panic!

And keep tuning in here for updates.

Wayne

 

[3488]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I agree 100% Wayne.

In order to sell more newspapars, mags, TV time, eyc, the mainstream media who pander to the masses WILL blow 2009 KK out of all proportion.

Not only that, the 2012 end of the world Nibiru woo woos, etc will also seize on this.

Sad really, very sad.

Andrew Brown.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

We can always hope that's not the case, my friend.
I noticed that when I did a google search on 2009 KK, this thread was near the top of the list, so the blow by blow facts are available if anyone in the media cares about the facts....

Not likely, but possible :lol:

 

[galldora]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

That is what I like about this thread. fact, bare facts. No balogny and HOMG WE'RE GOING TO DIE FIREY DEATHSSSS!

I was wondering why we hadn't seen any headlines about it. No where I looked was mentioning it beyond this thread, JPL et al. Thankful to have found this thread before having found something from I dont know ... godlike or something similar.

2022 is still a ways away yet. hehe time to poke that mom worry in the back of my head and start learning something, so as to try and avoid similar situations in the future.

Hopefully, there will always be threads and people like yourselves around providing helpful and understandable informations to people who need it.

Another resounding THANK YOU! :!:

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Welcome to SDC galldora.

Asteroids are fun to follow, aren't they? I check every day. One of my silly net addictions. I suspect MW does too

Here is a good site, summarizes everything, and is only a few hours behind the raw data: http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm and then click on "Impact Risk Monitoring"

Don't worry, we have all been through several asteroid 'scares'. Always, as more data was acquired, eventually the risk starts to lower again. Although I should say, 2009 KK is turning out to be rather surprising so far.

cheers!

 

[galldora]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Welcome to SDC galldora.

Asteroids are fun to follow, aren't they? I check every day. One of my silly net addictions. I suspect MW does too

Here is a good site, summarizes everything, and is only a few hours behind the raw data: http://www.hohmanntransfer.com/news.htm and then click on "Impact Risk Monitoring"

Don't worry, we have all been through several asteroid 'scares'. Always, as more data was acquired, eventually the risk starts to lower again. Although I should say, 2009 KK is turning out to be rather surprising so far.

cheers!

Thank you very much for the welcome. It's nice to welcome even despite my ignorance and blatant panic :lol:

I do not know if I would call it fun for me. But I am certainly learning things I never had knew before. You'd think we'd learn these things in science class in school. Nope. At least not while I was in school. hehe. Maybe when I understand things better (if I do) I too will think of it as fun. hehe like a storm chaser of sorts

I constantly check too. Maybe its the fear/panic side of me that makes me do it. But every day if not once or twice I check things like spaceweather, jpl neodys et al bad astronomy and then this thread. My husband thinks I am full on crazy and just more than a chicken little. But that is okay. At least i am not shrugging my shoulders saying I don't know like he does

I figure perhaps with time it too will turn out like the others. Or at least I hope and if not I hope that the lead time we have been given might prove to be useful. hehe I dont ask too much other than to see my wee bit get to be a big bit

But thank you so much for allowing me to visit the thread and to post. I very much appreciate it. And for the link too!

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Good morning folks...today's ephemeris has most likely increased the risk a bit more.

CA (Close approach) in 2022 has moved to May 17th, and decreased to 0.220 AU (about 86x LD)
RMS residuals decreased to 0.43886.
EMOID decreased to 0.00063381 (JPL) 0.00063327 (NEODyS

So I'm guessing about a .04 increase in Palermo Scale.

MW


JPL Sentry
# obs. used (total) 92
data-arc span 16 days
first obs. used 2009-05-17
last obs. used 2009-06-02
planetary ephem. DE405
SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2
quality code 7
fit RMS .43886
data source ORB
producer Otto Matic
solution date 2009-Jun-03 00:50:08
Additional Information Earth MOID = .000633381 AU
T_jup = 4.365


e .4566983010769305 0.0011259
a 1.505478834165445 0.0025502 AU
q .8179292082948084 0.00031006 AU
i 18.27326877096387 0.03929 deg
node 68.20817831533292 0.026359 deg
peri 247.2387104998101 0.0043171 deg
M 337.8687590378257 0.071913 deg
tp 2455041.977605241424
(2009-Jul-29.47760525) 0.02942 JED
period 674.6995305158788
1.85 1.7143
0.004693 d
yr
n .5335708470476364 0.0013557 deg/d
Q 2.193028460036083 0.0037148 AU

NEODyS:

Value 1-σ variation Units
a 1.50548 0.002592 AU
e 0.456698 0.001144
i 18.273 0.03994 deg
Ω 68.208 0.02679 deg
ω 247.239 0.00439 deg
M 337.869 0.07309 deg

Perihelion 0.8179 AU
Aphelion 2.193 AU
Orbital period 674.7 days

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

ROFL, damn I am getting good at this (until it falls off the table.)

From NEODyS, Palermo scale -1.17

 

[cyclonebuster]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Like a storm chaser I want to be a meteor chaser! But stay far away at impact and just film away with high speed film.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Well the fun thing is, unlike chasing tornados where you can go a whole season and not see any, meteors can be seen any night if you invest the time

 

[Boris_Badenov]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I have to be honest with you guy's, I rather hope that this turns out to be on a collision course. I doubt anything other than a potential disaster will kick the powers that be into gear & get them to start on my pet project of "Asteroid Capture." I think this one is small enough to be able to redirect & possibly even capture into a Lagrange Point or maybe even a high GEO.
I'm sure you're right Wayne, it'll be ruled out as a potential impactor soon, but I can always hope. :twisted:

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I suppose this is a good candidate. The EMOID is only about 1/4 the distance to the moon!

 

[galldora]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

I so wished I had been learning this while in school or even when I went to university. Alas, my interests fell into dun dun dun literary areas. Maybe I can read to 09kk? :lol: Or tell it all about Canterbury or something equal dull to perhaps changes its mind. Sorry hehe I don't mind it not being an impactor. Though I am not entirely as worried as initally, which is a lovely feeling.

I am no real hehe contributor to the thread. Sorry about that.

A meteor chaser! yes sounds fun. If I knew for sure I wasn't going to be smooshed (or worse) by one, I cannot say I would not like to see something like it myself. Maybe for now I will live vicariously from other peoples sightings until hehe 2022 at least ;P

Good morning and have a great day guys!

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

ROFL, damn I am getting good at this (until it falls off the table.)

From NEODyS, Palermo scale -1.17

You are getting remarkably good at this. I propose that we can shut down the computers and 50,000 lines of code in the NEODyS software, and just have MW do mental estimates of asteroid trajectories and risk factors ! :ugeek:

2009 KK continues to be interesting, and the risk increases.

This thread is #1 on the google search engine on 2009 KK, and apparently the only discussion thread about it in the google top 10. Get ready for media interviews, I suspect this story will get picked up soon. I am guessing that Pravda will first break the story, they seem to break the asteroid panic stories first, since they tend to have found their nitch as the geeky National Enquirer of newspapers.

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Well you can always watch meteor showers when they occur. I usually post about the major ones before they come up in this forum. Sure they are only the size of BB's or marbles, but still put on an an enjoyable show, and won't kill you or put your eye out

Meteor Wayne

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

hi silylene, you can imagine how stunned I was to see that my projected change in the Palermo scale was accurate for 2 days in a row. I mean REALLY stunned! It's kind of a fun challenge

Yeah, I guess the clock it ticking on a media explosion... From the impression I get, it will become a TS 2 when the Palermos scale crosses zero, so barring any unexpected observations, that's still a ways off.

BTW, obs 87-89 (6/1) were from H55-Astronomical Research Observatory, Charleston (Illinois, I believe)

Obs 90-92 (6/2) were from H01-Magdalena Ridge Observatory, Socorro (New Mexico)


The Magdalena Ridge Observatory (MRO) is primarily intended for astronomical research and will be composed of two facilities, a single 2.4-Meter telescope and an array of optical/infrared telescopes called an Interferometer. It is located on South Baldy Ridge in the Magdalena mountains, some 30 miles west of the New Mexico Tech (NMT) campus. At an elevation of 10,600 ft. above sea level, it will be the fourth highest observatory in the world.

The site states they can observe dow to mag +24!


http://www.mro.nmt.edu/Home/index.htm

 

[galldora]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Not killing you is nice but not putting an eye out is even better Can totally let the kids run lose those times. :lol: That's one thing I am liking about situations like this. What I am learning now, I can eventually teach or show at least the wee bit. Granted she is only two so that might be a while yet. lol

I do not believe I have ever seen a meteor shower. I have had a period where hehe looking at the night sky was just a little scary. Sad but true. There are so very amazing things to see, to know about it ... but I often get hung up in the what ifs.

Thanks for educating me guys. Hopefully when the media blitz does hit ... it won't get a chance to go too crazy. And hopefully those 2012-er's steer clear. One can only handle so much of them.

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Yeah, I guess the clock it ticking on a media explosion... From the impression I get, it will become a TS 2 when the Palermos scale crosses zero, so barring any unexpected observations, that's still a ways off.

Well, if the new data continues to refine towards a possible collision, then the error bar will continue to reduce daily, increasing the odds of collision in a steady march. Currently the Palermo Scale is increasing about 0.03 - 0.05 / day with each new observation. At this rate of increase, it would put the date of arriving at PS = 0 to perhaps about July 10 or so. Of course (as you mentioned earlier in this thread), that is just about when the asteroid moves further away, its visual magnitude decreasing, while also getting close to the sun's glare, and so it will be very hard to observe. So it possible the last observation of the early summer will be the one in which PS = 0, TS = 2...and then we lose track of 2009KK until August ! Wow, it could induce a panic and then just...tremble...no more data for months!

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

In addition, the number of possible observatories declines rapidly during June as the asteroid heads south. In another week or so, if my rough calcs are correct it will no longer be visible from most of the northern hemisphere.

I'll look at it a little closer over the next day or so. There's a lot of variables to consider, sky position, sun, moon, latitude, etc...

 

[MeteorWayne]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Ok, after yesterday's glitch when the obs did not make it to the risk page, today's have.

Torino Scale (maximum) 1
Palermo Scale (maximum) -1.17
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -1.17
Impact Probability (cumulative) 9.6e-05
Number of Potential Impacts 1

Analysis based on
92 observations spanning 15.990 days
(2009-May-17.25987 to 2009-Jun-02.24985)

Vimpact 19.14 km/s
Vinfinity 15.57 km/s
H 20.5
Diameter 0.270 km
Mass 2.5e+10 kg
Energy 1.1e+03 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability


Impact Probability: 9.6e-05
0.009600000% chance of Earth impact

or

1 in 10,000 chance

or

99.99040000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

 

[xXTheOneRavenXx]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

When the media panics, I will document that here in this thread as well

*Picks up a copy of the ever reliable National Enquirer with MeteorWayne striking a "jaw-dropping" pose on the cover entitled: 2009 KK impact imminent* lol. I can so see that happening. I just hope it's a good pic of you Wayne But thank you for the updates. You are very good.

 

[ginyoc]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Hey everybody,

I have been following this thread for more than a week now and have to say that it turns out to be rather interesting.
At the moment I am working as an intern in an space lab where we try to develop a new model to estimate how an asteroid that enters the earth's atmosphere behaves (trajectory, fragmentation etc), and up to now Apophis was always the one we've been geared to.
Seems like there's a new candidate

@MW: how exactly did you estimate the Palermo scale updates?

 

[silylene]

Re: asteroid 2009 KK May 29 2022

Hello ginyoc, welcome to SDC !

I'll let MW answer his questions...I am curious too.

I am also interested in your work. perhaps if you have time, you can tell us more about your research on object impacts and what you have learned. Do you have any good, open-access links to a journal article or review that you would recommend? Can you perhaps enlighten us more on the latest thoughts on ocean impact simulation (this came up earlier in the thread).

welcome !!