Asteroid Collision in 2029 was ruled out

[spayss]

These 'odds' of this asteroid hitting the Earth are meaningless if it doesn't hit the Earth. If an event never happens then it never was possible...all that was being said is that the science was bad. <br /><br />1 in 50? 1 in 1000? Means nothing.... just more hysteria over poor methodology or inaccurate information.<br /><br /> The important question is to do with the possibility of an asteroid or comet slamming into the Earth. This we don't know.

 

[grooble]

Odds are stupid. All things are 50/50. It happens or it don't.

 

[newtonian]

spayss - And who on this thread do you feel is in the grips of hysteria?<br /><br />To ignore the dangers would be like not driving defensively.<br /><br />Yes, you only have a certain low probability of a car collision. That doesn't mean driving defensively is meaningless!<br />However, there is a Bible prophecy involved here:<br /><br />(Luke 21:10-11) Then he went on to say to them: "Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom; 11 and there will be great earthquakes, and in one place after another pestilences and food shortages; and there will be fearful sights and from heaven great signs.<br /><br />(Luke 21:26) while men become faint out of fear and expectation of the things coming upon the inhabited earth; for the powers of the heavens will be shaken.<br />Now, sadly, this is being fulfilled- whether there is actually an asteroid collision or not.<br />You can, of course, choose to ignore all of this.<br /><br />Or you can investigate further with methodical reasoning- ratiocination (sp?).<br />

 

[spayss]

/* ad hominem deleted */

 

[wisefool]

Spayss and grooble, IF we have no empirical data regarding the asteroid and its track relative to Earth's, then we are in an either/or situation. However, astronomers in real time are gathering increasingly sophisticated data points aimed at establishing a tightening range of probabilities. If their analysis shows that it is impossible for the asteroid to hit us, they will be saying that the probability is zero. The "impossible" statement is based on experiment, not pure speculation. Only things that self-contradict are impossible.<br /><br />At the same time, if the increasingly confident analysis indicates that there is a likelihood that this object will impact Earth a quarter century hence, then a probability statement will be made which is greater than zero, but less than one. Over time new data will change that probability number.<br /><br />Interestingly, even if we eventually conclude that the probability for an impact event for 2029 will be zero, we must again speculate about the next Earth-passing danger from this or other significant asteroids. Such is science.

 

[silylene old]

Wisefool,<br /><br />The odds 4 months ago were 1 in 300 based upon the early observational data.<br /><br />Then the asteroid was lost for a while, but found again in early December.<br /><br />The odds including the early Dec. data were increased to 1 in 62.<br /><br />The observational data from mid-Dec. increased the odds to 1 in 45.<br /><br />This rock bears watching. Chances are, it will be a near miss. More data will make the guessing the path much more confident. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[bobvanx]

<blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr /><p>"I was there at ALMOST the end of the world. Several times actually...."<p><hr /></p></p></blockquote><br /><br />LOL

 

[meteo]

Roll a dice. <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

 

[meteo]

http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/spacegd7.html#extrapolate<br /><br />I'm going on this link which is the best I could find. If the asteroid stays intact and strikes deep pacific water it would be much, much, much worse than today's tsunami. Impacting in 5km deep water a 500m asteroid would part the ocean down to the floor according to the quoted researcher.<br /><br />http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/ast_tsu.gif

 

[thalion]

Though I'm no expert, I think this is how the astronomers might respond to the question of chaos:<br /><br />1.) Chaos usually becomes important only over long time intervals.<br /><br />2.) If the interval is relatively short, however, chaotic influences might be induced by various close encounters; for instance, recall the difficulty astronomers had calculating Hermes's (1937 UB) past and future close approaches, due to numerous encounters with both Earth and Venus.<br /><br />They probably feel that the orbit is well-behaved enough, and the perturbations small enough to treat the trajectory as a classical Newtonian problem, with perhaps a little input from relativistic effects (re orbit precession).

 

[mental_avenger]

There is another way to handle this. (Assuming the asteroid will hit the Earth) Calculate the exact point at which this asteroid will hit. Gather all the skeptics that think we are not in danger of an impact, and relocate them to the impact site. After the impact, all the remaining scientists will be those who advocate some proteciton from such catastorphes. All their opponents will be vaporized. This should allow us to formulate plans to deal with such events, and implement comprehensive detection and deflection systems to prevent future events.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p style="margin-top:0in;margin-left:0in;margin-right:0in" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Times New Roman" size="2" color="#ff0000"><strong>Our Solar System must be passing through a Non Sequitur area of space.</strong></font></p> </div>

 

[tom_hobbes]

Can't see any flaws in that proposal! <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#339966"> I wish I could remember<br /> But my selective memory<br /> Won't let me</font><font size="2" color="#99cc00"> </font><font size="3" color="#339966"><font size="2">- </font></font><font size="1" color="#339966">Mark Oliver Everett</font></p><p> </p> </div>

 

[mooware]

<font color="yellow">It is interesting we have an object lesson on the dangers of a tsunami exactly when we see danger from an asteroid. <br /><br />Coincidence???? (I doubt it) </font><br /><br />How do you relate this as some kind of planned "lesson"? <br /><br />Certainly, this isn't the first Tsunami we've seen over the history of the planet. <br /><br />Seems rather brutish that some god feels that 21,000 people need to be murdered in order to teach us a lesson about asteroids.<br /><br />Just my opinion<br /><br />

 

[tom_hobbes]

Hate to continue to divert this thread but, leaving aside my borderline atheism for a moment, this would seem consistant with acts such as the great flood. The trail of carnage through the old testament is so wide and deep that this cruel and vengeful God contradicts your argument by himself. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font size="2" color="#339966"> I wish I could remember<br /> But my selective memory<br /> Won't let me</font><font size="2" color="#99cc00"> </font><font size="3" color="#339966"><font size="2">- </font></font><font size="1" color="#339966">Mark Oliver Everett</font></p><p> </p> </div>

 

[meteo]

Just recently the risk was raised to 2.7% 1 in 37.<br /><br />http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

 

[bobvanx]

I really don't care for the way these numbers are going.<br /><br />This class of asteroid, the Atens, are really hard to spot. I'd really like to see an observatory sharing Venus' orbit, looking for these things.<br /><br />Having 25 years to prepare is really a luxury. There are others in this class that we certainly haven't found, and won't give us that much time to prepare.

 

[mikejz]

I would start to worried if astronomers suddenly started to buy a lot of Boeing and Lockheed stock.

 

[mcbethcg]

If it's going to hit, eventually astronomers will know exactly where it will hit.<br /><br />Imagine the politics involved if it were headed for south Korea or Iran.<br /><br />Also, BTW, I see no way that this should cause widespread starvation with 25 years warning. I could buy enough dried beans, rice, and vitamins to last 2 years with one paycheck, tomorrow, and just keep it till its needed. Most people could do something similar.

 

[silylene old]

If it hits, by the time of collision (21:34 UT +/- 1.31 h:m) and the fact that 2004TM4 is approaching along the ecliptic from the side of the Earth facing the sun, the most likely location would be a longitude in the Alaskan Standard Time zone. There is a huge error bar associated with this prediction. But the hemisphere facing the collision would be the hemisphere centered on the AST zone. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[llivinglarge]

So, what does Starry Night have to say about all of this?

 

[silylene old]

I just ran the animations from JPL to observe the approach vector, and then looked up the orbital intersection timing from the NEODYS database to determine which longitude of Earth was facing the sun. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[meteo]

I really don't think it's big enough to cause any climate change if it hits land. From the airizona simulator it looks like it would cause severe damage for an area a little smaller than Conneticut, the real risk would be an ocean hit which would cause much more damage.

 

[llivinglarge]

Consider the following, in 25 years time, we can develop a method to alter the meteor's trajectory using solar a solar sail or nuke the damn thing.

 

[bobvanx]

I just went over to the Risk Assessment page at NEO, where did the 2029 close approach go?<br /><br />Are we out of the woods?

 

[silylene old]

http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?riskpage:0;main <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>