Spayss and grooble, IF we have no empirical data regarding the asteroid and its track relative to Earth's, then we are in an either/or situation. However, astronomers in real time are gathering increasingly sophisticated data points aimed at establishing a tightening range of probabilities. If their analysis shows that it is impossible for the asteroid to hit us, they will be saying that the probability is zero. The "impossible" statement is based on experiment, not pure speculation. Only things that self-contradict are impossible.<br /><br />At the same time, if the increasingly confident analysis indicates that there is a likelihood that this object will impact Earth a quarter century hence, then a probability statement will be made which is greater than zero, but less than one. Over time new data will change that probability number.<br /><br />Interestingly, even if we eventually conclude that the probability for an impact event for 2029 will be zero, we must again speculate about the next Earth-passing danger from this or other significant asteroids. Such is science.