Asteroid Collision in 2029 was ruled out

silylene old · Dec 25, 2004

This is the first time that new observation data has actually upgraded the risk factor. Chance of collision is 1 in 60 with current observational data. Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully' By Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer posted: 24 December 2004 09:58 am ET Update, Dec. 24, 10:19 p.m. ET: An asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in the year 2029 was upgraded to an unprecedented level of risk Friday, Dec. 24. Scientists still stress, however, that odds are further observations will show the space rock won't be on a collision course with the planet. The risk rating for asteroid 2004 MN4 was raised Friday by NASA and a separate group of researchers in Italy. The asteroid's chance for hitting Earth on April 13, 2029 has now been categorized as a 4 on the Torino Scale. The level 4 rating -- never before issued -- is reserved for "events meriting concern" versus the vast majority of potentially threatening asteroids that merely merit "careful monitoring." The Dec. 24 update from NASA stated: "2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6 percent, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98 percent chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029." read more: http://www.space.com/scienceastrono...isk_041224.html read here for the orbital diagram and animation: http://neo</safety_wrapper <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function. </div> </div>

newtonian · Dec 25, 2004

Thank you. OK, a 300 meter asteroid at what speed would have what effect on impact? Or is it 400 meters, as per the space.com article? The article indicates considerable damage but not global, worse than the Siberian impact. If it hits the ocean, what size tsunami would result at what speed? Where on earth would it likely impact? Likely this is too soon to tell, but no harm asking! What is its composition? Rocky or icy? Iron?

tony873004 · Dec 25, 2004

http://orbitsimulator.com/orbiter/2004%20MN4.GIF This will be a close one. Using JPL Horizons data starting 2 weeks prior, this thing cruises way inside the Moon's orbit. It'll be interesting to see how this trajectory changes with updated position vectors from Horizons.

silylene old · Dec 25, 2004

Knowing the exact date and time of the collision, and the approach vector (see the links in my above post), my question is: approximately where on Earth would the asteroid strike (assuming it did) ? I don't have the software available to calculate this. I think the location could be narrowed to one hemisphere, and probably an elongated probability ellipse across that hemisphere. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function. </div> </div>

toymaker · Dec 25, 2004

Enjoy this. http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/ Supposedly it calculates the effect of the impact, I don't know reliable it is though We don't know the density of the rock, nor do I know its velocity or angle of impact... But, just for " fun" i entered its diameter and avarage types of velocity and impact angles (which they advise on the page) and inserted pourous rock as the type of the material of the asteroid and assumed it hits sedimentary rock Your Inputs: Distance from Impact: 1.00 km = 0.62 miles Projectile Diameter: 400.00 m = 1312.00 ft = 0.25 miles Projectile Density: 1500 kg/m3 Impact Velocity: 17.00 km/s = 10.56 miles/s Impact Angle: 45 degrees Target Density: 2500 kg/m3 Target Type: Sedimentary Rock Energy: Energy before atmospheric entry: 7.26 x 1018 Joules = 1.74 x 103 MegaTons TNT The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 3.4 x 104years Atmospheric Entry: The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 72500 meters = 238000 ft The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 12.7 km/s = 7.89 miles/s The impact energy is 4.06 x 1018 Joules = 9.69 x 102MegaTons. The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 1.73 km by 1.22 km Major Global Changes: The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass. The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis. The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably. Crater Dimensions: What does this mean? Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not sign

tom_hobbes · Dec 25, 2004

I almost think it would be a good thing if the odds for impact harden considerably. I can imagine all sorts of benefits from having to focus on an event that while not significant in survival terms, highlights the dangers we face as a species while being far enough away to do something about it. It might engender a much needed direction to our efforts in space, creating vital international structures which might once and for all turn our attention outward. Let it be. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> I wish I could remember But my selective memory Won't let me - Mark Oliver Everett </div>

toymaker · Dec 25, 2004

Yes, I have the same opinion, such a shock would wake many out of the slumber of ignorance about our place in universe.

silylene old · Dec 25, 2004

Predicted time of intersection with the Earth's orbit is UT 21:34 13 April 2029 +/- 1:31 h:m That would be noontime in the Alaska Standard timezone. So the collision ellipse will be centered in the Pacific Ocean, several hundred km off the coast of N America (or even further off the coast of S America, if it struck in the Southern Hemisphere). The probability ellipse is long and narrow, parallel to the equator. There is still not enough astronomical data to predict the likely latitude of the ellipse. Am I correct? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function. </div> </div>

tom_hobbes · Dec 25, 2004

Yes indeed. The universe is a dangerous place and the sooner we stop pissing about over ideology, ours or theirs, the better off we'll be. We will never stop navel gazing until we absolutely have to. Something like this would be ideal. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> I wish I could remember But my selective memory Won't let me - Mark Oliver Everett </div>

odysseus145 · Dec 25, 2004

Assuming it does land in the middle of the pacific what effects would it have? I would assume major tsunamis would ravage the pacific coastlines, but how would it effect the rest of the planet? Could this size asteroid induce major climate change? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

toymaker · Dec 25, 2004

Much will depend on the depth of the water I think. As to climate change a small change is likely, active vulcanos can have some contributions like that, but nothing really major. Still a lot of unknown factors-velocity, the exact area, or what the asteroid is made of. And lets not forget that is more then likely that it will not hit Earth anyway(unfortunetly to some degree as it seems)

bobvanx · Dec 25, 2004

Let's see, we're a bunch of enterprising folks. Let's sell tickets for a cruise, to see the apocalypse "up close and personal." I'll print up the shirts: "I was there at the end of the world."

tom_hobbes · Dec 25, 2004

"...And all I got was this lousy T-shirt." <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> I wish I could remember But my selective memory Won't let me - Mark Oliver Everett </div>

toymaker · Dec 25, 2004

I really think that if it would be a small scale event (relatively speaking) then trips to the safe boundry to observe the impact wouldn't be surprising(if its on land). The asteroid isn't really of the apocalyptic kind(unless it would strike a heavily populated or forested area, reservation part etc. which is unlikely ) and could stir up major interest of governments about threats coming out of space. Too bad it won't hit thought <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" />

bobvanx · Dec 25, 2004

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />The asteroid isn't really of the apocalyptic kind<hr /></blockquote>I know that and you know that, but most people fall for that sort of PT Barnum exaggeration. And I don't mind taking their money. I was just noticing over at the orbit visualization applet at the NEO site that it made a close approach in 1998, and another in 2021. This particular rock looks like a natural for a follow-on to Deep Impact and EROS, in which we can (and should) practice moving it. The orbit is close enough to the ecliptic, and really intersects ours in just the one spot. Decreasing its period by a couple of days will set it inside our orbit, and without much likelihood of Venus pumping the the asteriod's orbital energy back up to be an Earth-crosser. Someday, we'll find rocks like these in nearly Hohman transfer orbits, and they'll be valuable bits of space real-estate.

meteo · Dec 25, 2004

The risk of an impact by asteroid 2004 MN4 went up slightly on Saturday, Dec. 25. It is now pegged at having a 1-in -45 chance of striking the planet on April 13, 2029. That's up from 1-in-63 late on Dec. 24, and 1-in-300 early on Dec. 24. Astronomers still stress that it is very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations. And even as it stands with present knowledge, the chances are 97.8 percent the rock will miss Earth. Just in.

tony873004 · Dec 26, 2004

I wonder how long it will take before they can confirm or rule out a collision? But even if it is found to be on a direct collision course, the odds of it striking will still be small. We'll nuke this thing into a million pieces before we let it strike the ocean and flood the Pacific rim cities with tidal waves.

odysseus145 · Dec 26, 2004

<blockquote>In reply to:<hr />...very likely the risk will be reduced to zero with further observations...<hr /></blockquote> I hope they're right, but the numbers don't appear to agree. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> </div>

Maddad · Dec 26, 2004

This object appears to be about ten times the diameter of the Tunguska one back in 1908 which flattened hundreds of square kilometers of wilderness. If it were moving at the same speed, then it would have 1,000 times the energy of that blast. However, the Tunguska object was probable a comet, which means that it originated from much further out and was therefore traveling perhaps five times as fast. This would reduce this object's energy to perhaps 40 times as much as Tunguska. It's radius of effect will be six times greater, so it should knock down trees within 250 miles of ground zero. That's dang sure a big boomer.

wisefool · Dec 26, 2004

Yes! Bring it on! The closer the better. If people start worrying about surviving rogue asteroids, they might decide to cooperate for mutual survival in other areas too. I do believe there is plenty of time to construct a way to nudge aside such a modest space rock. If not, by then I'll be an old geezer; and if I'm the target, what a way to go out!

silylene old · Dec 26, 2004

Does the moon figure into the odds? The moon is included in the calculations. However on 13 April 2029 it will be behind the earth, relative to the approaching asteroid. So it won't shield at all. On that note, if it did miss the Earth, the moon would be about 4 hours later. But by then, the Earth/moon will have moved out of the way. New odds at 1 in 45 are here: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.2e-02 If it misses in 2029, latest data shows it makes another very close aproach on 30 Nov 2041 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center">I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function. </div> </div>

igorsboss · Dec 26, 2004

Assuming impact becomes a certainty, What should the impact's observation campaign include? What information would we be looking for? What scientific measurements might be interesting to focus on? How would a human observe this in person, survivably?

wisefool · Dec 26, 2004

It would be interesting to speculate on the relative effects of this asteroid's impact in the Pacific versus today's 8.9, 1000 kilometer-long, earthquake/rupture in the ocean near Sumatra.

mikejz · Dec 26, 2004

Given its orbit, does it ever have a close call with Venus? That might mae the orbit more intresting. (It would also be kind of cool to send it crashing into Venus...Hehe)

newtonian · Dec 26, 2004

wisefool - Yes, exactly. It is interesting we have an object lesson on the dangers of a tsunami exactly when we see danger from an asteroid. Coincidence???? (I doubt it) Certainly, the asteroid is more likely to hit water than land, as earth has more water than land. So, as I asked earlier in this thread [before I knew about the earthquake] - what would the effect of tsunami's be?

Asteroid Collision in 2029 was ruled out

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