Asteroids 2007 VK184 and 2008 AF4 update thread

[MeteorWayne]

New info has been digested with data through yesterday on 2008 AF4.<br />No substantial change; still a Torino Scale 1,<br />Max Palermo scale -2.49, Cumulative Palermo -2.30<br />Possible impact around noon UT 1/9/2089.<br /><br />I'll be sleeping by then <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Another update on 2008 AF4:<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />87 observations spanning 6.6328 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-17.02932)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 1 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.48 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.31 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 2.2e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 45 <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Just to give 2007 VK184 in the same format, no new data:<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />101 observations spanning 60.013 days<br />(2007-Nov-12.13904 to 2008-Jan-11.15189)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 1 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -1.83 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -1.82 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 3.4e-04 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 4 <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

The next near term possible impactor (though Torino Scale 0) is 2008 AK33.<br /><br />I mention it because the possible impacts begin in 2010, and it is a lrage object.<br />Note it is newly discovered, with few observations over a very short period.<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />25 observations spanning 1.1490 days<br />(2008-Jan-15.08003 to 2008-Jan-16.22905)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -3.68 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -3.13 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 6.4e-07 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 211 <br /><br />The most likely (though very very very unlikely) impact would be July 6 2010.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

And finally, in the same format, our old friend 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) <br /><br /><br />Analysis based on 2 radar delay, 5 Doppler, and<br />731 optical observations spanning 884.52 days<br />(2004-Mar-15.10789 to 2006-Aug-16.626954)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.52 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.52 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 2.2e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 2 <br /><br />Those 2 potential impacts would be April 13 2036 or 2037.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 AK33 Updated<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />32 observations spanning 3.1023 days<br />(2008-Jan-15.08003 to 2008-Jan-18.1823)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -4.85 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -4.60 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.5e-08 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 15 <br /><br />Edit: Notice this is following the typical pattern of a newly discovered object, with risk falling rapidly as new observations are added.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 AK33 has now been removed from the impact risk page due to the inclusion of more observations. <br /><br />Edit: Removal date and time:<br />2008 AK33 2008-01-21 10:43 <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 AF4 has now dropped to a 0 on the Torino Scale.<br /><br /><br />Analysis based on<br />197 observations spanning 10.580 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-20.97632)<br /><br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.70 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.43 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.9e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 25 <br /><br />This highest likelyhood impact is Jan 9, 2089, with the window of all potential impacts on Jan 9 from 2088 to 2099.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 AF4<br />Another day of observations.<br />I'm documenting the process of ingesting new obs for the edification of those who tend to prematurely panic.<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />205 observations spanning 10.938 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-21.33477)<br /><br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.81 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.46 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.8e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 24 <br /><br /><br />The Jan 9 2088 impact possibility has been eliminated.<br />The most likely impact day would be Jan 9, 2089 between 1102 and 1146 UT.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

MW, I agree with you it is good to educate those prone to premature panic on asteroids. I usually wait for about 45 days of observational data before posting anything here. So often it seems that the initial early 'alarming' results are rapidly squelched when new data arrives. 2008 AF4 is a good example.<br /><br />In fact, I am expecting 2007 VK184 to also move to non-threatening when we get enough new data. But this may take a while to refine to that degree, since the trajectory does have some significant arc of observations.<br /><br />All said, it is interesting to watch the process. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Thanx, I thought it would be a good idea while fresh obs are coming in.<br /><br />I'm wondering why 2007 VK184 hasn't been observed in the last 10 days, most likely it's just too small to be seen at 1 AU. If that's the case, we won't be closer until 2014. That would be a long time for a Torino 1 object to be sitting there at the top of the list!<br />I'm going to create an ephemeris for it to see how difficult an observation it would be at this time. <br /><br /><br />Edit:<br /><br />OK, I checked. It is in Taurus, but the magnitude is +25!!<br />That's mighty darn faint.<br /><br />So we could indeed be in a position where 2007 VK 184 will be waiting 6 or 7 years for more observations.<br /><br />On the other hand 2008 AF4 should be visible for a while longer; the orbit should be quite accurate before it moves too far away.<br />It is currently in Leo Minoris at magnitude +17.<br /><br />MW <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[logicize]

I wish they would update 2007 TU24, it's on it's way in, so there should be daily updates. Nothing since the 18th.<br /><br />http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/2007TU24/2007TU24planning.html<br />http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007 TU24;orb=1<br /><br />It would probably be a good idea to keep an eye on it as it approaches. You never know when it may bump into something.<br />

 

[MeteorWayne]

Regarding 2007 TU24, as I said (in the AtA thread), it makes no difference. <br />The last sets of observations caused almost no change to the orbit.<br />It WILL pass 1.4 lunar distances from earth.<br /><br />I would like to see an update from the point of view of being able to observe it. For those in Asia, it will be moving fast enough to see it's second by second motion in a telescope. For north america, it should be possible to see it move minute by minute at least.<br />Such events are pretty rare.<br /><br />It is currently in Cetus, dimmer than magnitude +18, stuck between twilight and the full moon. That's pretty dim to spot under such conditions.<br /><br />Once the moon disappears from the hours after sunset it will be easier to spot, and by 0hUT on the 27th will be magnitude +15.5. So there will be a flurry of last day observations that will refine the orbit.<br /><br />See the thread in AtA concerning this object.<br /><br />Wayne <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

New data on 2008 AF4:<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />215 observations spanning 12.778 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-23.17423)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.96 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.52 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.6e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 24 <br /><br />Slowly the likelyhood of impact is decreasing, but this one could hang around until the next observing opportunity.<br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

New Data through the 23rd:<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />218 observations spanning 12.778 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-23.17423)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.99 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.54 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.5e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 23 <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 AF4 Update<br /><br />Remember, first impact possibility is Jan 10, 2088 <img src="/images/icons/wink.gif" /><br /><br />Analysis based on<br />305 observations spanning 18.715 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-29.11148)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -3.02 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.62 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.3e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 23 <br /><br />Vimpact 16.12 km/s <br />Vinfinity 11.65 km/s <br />H 19.8 <br />Diameter 0.380 km <br />Mass 7.3e+10 kg <br />Energy 2.2e+03 MT <br /><br /> # obs. used (total) 305 <br /> data-arc span 19 days <br /> first obs. used 2008-01-10 <br /> last obs. used 2008-01-29 <br /> planetary ephem. DE405 <br /> SB-pert. ephem. SB405-CPV-2 <br /> quality code 6 <br /> fit RMS .29626 <br /> data source ORB <br /> producer Otto Matic <br /> solution date 2008-Jan-29 00:50:10 <br /> <br /><br />Additional Information Earth MOID = .00245842 AU <br /><br />Element Value Uncertainty (1-sigma) Units <br />e .4107949143557699 0.00023383 <br />a 1.383311672985329 0.0004149 AU <br />q .8150542727539841 7.9011e-05 AU <br />i 8.911230369831424 0.0046569 deg <br />node 109.4454069431069 0.0016749 deg <br />peri 293.3955857374414 0.002637 deg <br />M 224.0625237987198 0.057797 deg <br />tp 2454424.896041441056<br />(2007-Nov-20.39604145) 0.0055507 JED <br />period 594.26272413037<br />1.63 0.26736<br />0.000732 d<br />yr <br />n .6057926660751194 0.00027255 deg/d <br />Q 1.951569073216674 0.00058535 <br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

More on 2008 AF4<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />319 observations spanning 19.804 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-30.20027)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -3.23 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.55 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.5e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 24 <br /><br />First potential impact Jan 10 2088 2 in 10 million chance<br />Most likely impact Jan 10 2095, 3 in 1 million chance<br /><br />Additional Information Earth MOID = .00245908 AU <br /><br /> <br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Well 2008 AF4 doesn't seem to want to leave the list, in fact the risk is up slightly.<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />334 observations spanning 21.333 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Jan-31.72966)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -3.14 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.51 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.7e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 25 <br /><br />First potential impact Jan 10 2088.<br />Most likely impact Jan 10 2095<br />Other high years are 89 and 98. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 AF4 once again increased probablity.<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />344 observations spanning 22.235 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Feb-01.63106)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -3.11 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.47 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.8e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 29 <br /> 1/9/2078-1/10/2100<br /><br />Most likely impact 1/10/2095<br /><br /> Earth MOID = .00245958 AU <br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

2008 AF continues to climb the charts.<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />349 observations spanning 22.924 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Feb-02.32076)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.85 <br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.32 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 2.6e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 31 <br /><br />An earlier possible impact in 2078 has been added.<br /><br />The 1/10/2095 impact is still the highest risk at Palermo Scale -2.85<br /><br /> Earth MOID = .00246005 AU <br /> <br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

That is interesting that 2008 AF4 is climbing back up the risk chart. This usualy doesn't happen. Is the asteroid now closer or brighter, and thus easier to measure position? Or has a new observatory been making measurements? <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

It's really just that the arc of observations is increasing. It's now been observed for 23 days, and each new day where it is observed contrains the possible orbit.<br /><br />From the jpl impact risk pages: <br /><br />"Why do your first calculations of an orbit often look more threatening than later ones? <br /><br />Because orbits stemming from very limited observation sets are more uncertain it is more likely that such orbits will "permit" future impacts. However, such early predictions can often be ruled out as we incorporate more observations and reduce the uncertainties in the object's orbit. Most often, the threat associated with a specific object will decrease as additional observations become available, and so objects will be posted to, and later removed from, our Impact Risk Page. The Palermo Scale values will typically start out at less negative values when the object's orbit is most uncertain and evolve to more negative values (and eventually off the list) as more and more observations allow the object's orbit to be continually improved. <br /><br /><font color="yellow">On the other hand, in the unlikely case where a particular potential impact event persists until the orbit is relatively well constrained, the impact probability and associated risk will tend to increase as observations are added. This is not too paradoxical: If an asteroid is indeed going to come very near the Earth then a collision cannot be ruled out early on. The impact probability will tend to grow as the orbit is refined and alternative and safer trajectories are eliminated. Eventually, the impact probability will drop (usually quite abruptly) to zero or, if the asteroid is really on a collision trajectory, it will continue to grow until it reaches 100%.</font><br /><br /><br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[silylene old]

MW: Good point. This will be an interesting asteroid to watch over the next couple of months. <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><em><font color="#0000ff">- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -</font></em> </div><div class="Discussion_UserSignature" align="center"><font color="#0000ff"><em>I really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function.</em></font> </div> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

It is well placed for observation, nearly at opposition, and may be visible out to nearly Mars' orbit, which is over 2 months from now.<br />That would give nearly a 90 day arc of observations which should add quite a bit of precision to the current orbit.<br /><br />Below is the table from NEODyS, which varies considerable from JPL's Sentry calculations, so there's still plenty of uncertainty left in the orbit <img src="/images/icons/smile.gif" /><br /><br />Edit:: NEODyS calculates a max Palermo scale of -3.12 on Jan 9, 2089; it does not go out to 2095, which is the JPL highest probability.<br /><br />Planet .....Date......... ...MJD...... Nominal Distance (AU) ......Minimum Possible Distance (AU) Stretching (AU) Width (AU) Close approach probability Linearity Applies <br /><br />EARTH 1951/01/14.74010 33660.7 0.0815784 0.0727321 0.04622 5.672e-08 0.927 No <br />EARTH 1955/08/20.83854 35339.8 0.10163 0.101312 0.04013 4.82e-07 0.928 No <br />EARTH 1968/09/07.69333 40106.7 0.175337 0.113108 0.03441 6.373e-07 0.622 No <br />EARTH 1994/12/06.37950 49692.4 0.174934 0.146825 0.01299 3.866e-07 1 No <br />EARTH 2008/01/04.90068 54469.9 0.0517599 0.0517119 1.634e-05 6.286e-08 1 No <br />EARTH 2012/08/11.00078 56150 0.190618 0.171757 0.007861 3.062e-07 1 No <br />EARTH 2021/01/07.68914 59221.7 0.0159028 0.0019148 0.01986 5.826e-08 1 No <br />EARTH 2046/08/25.16992 68582.2 0.122739 0.102384 0.6289 5.75e-07 0.0837 No <br />EARTH 2055/01/11.35900 71643.4 0.020564 0.0009138 0.9058 5.475e-08 0.0733 No <br />EARTH 2059/08/14.63385 73319.6 0.151578 0.122684 3.192 3.698e-07 0.0179 No <br />EARTH 2068/01/08.97140 76389 0.0131881 0.0007246 10.12 1.192e-07 0.00659 No <br />EARTH 2089/01/16.65679 84067.7 0.105342 1.2e-05 469.8 0 0.000133 No <br />EARTH 2093/08/11.92171 85735.9 0.182212 0.103586 456.6 0 0.000123 No <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>

 

[MeteorWayne]

Another day, another increase in the odds.<br /><br />Analysis based on<br />369 observations spanning 24.555 days<br />(2008-Jan-10.39652 to 2008-Feb-03.95181)<br /><br />Torino Scale (maximum) 0 <br />Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.69 (Jan 10, 2095)<br />Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.18 <br />Impact Probability (cumulative) 3.5e-05 <br />Number of Potential Impacts 38 <br /><br />Earth MOID = .00246005 AU <br /> <div class="Discussion_UserSignature"> <p><font color="#000080"><em><font color="#000000">But the Krell forgot one thing John. Monsters. Monsters from the Id.</font></em> </font></p><p><font color="#000080">I really, really, really, really miss the "first unread post" function</font><font color="#000080"> </font></p> </div>